[coconutt2000]

The regime he heads has become a typical Third World dictatorship relying on violence and bribery to remain in power.

Doh! Islam went and did it again.

Perhaps if they try again the outcome will be different.

[element92]

this is rubbish.

once the thugs are in place.
revolutionary guards
Mugabe’s war veterans
etc.

a revolution is very difficult

[NicknamedBob]

Good article. Once the people have a general and shared attitude that the ruling party is corrupt and illegitimate, control becomes more difficult and tenuous. This attitude is the equivalent of having a declaration of independence.

Of course, a mere declaration won't do it; you have to force a new balance of power. It won't be pretty.

[AdmSmith]

Bob Baer:

Iran is locked in a classic power struggle, pitting the house of Khamenei against the house of Khomeini. It has been simmering since Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader in 1989, but it is only now that Khomeini's heirs have chosen to finally fight back against a complete takeover of the regime by Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards. The Khomeinists were mistakenly convinced that if they could muster a 70% turnout and win the elections, Khamenei would not dare throw out the results.

Now that Khamenei has refused new elections, the opposition has switched from challenging the June 12 election results to attacking the legitimacy of Khamenei himself. They are counting on Khamenei to continue cracking down on demonstrators, arresting larger numbers of opposition supporters and eventually jailing the leaders. In the end, they believe, Khamenei will so antagonize Qom's ayatullahs that the country's clerical leadership will issue a fatwa condemning Khamenei and the June 12 election. Such a fatwa would strip Khamenei of any legitimacy as Iran's clerical Supreme Leader, eroding his support in the Revolutionary Guards. Already, the enlisted men in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards are uneasy about suppressing the demonstrations. Its rank and file, like other Iranians, have suffered from the poor economy under Ahmadinejad. Reportedly, there have also been arrests inside the regular army. If true, it's a dark omen for Khamenei. A countercoup may just be on the cards.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1912970,00.html

[SolidWood]

Amir Taheri is a good read as always. I think there is however a difference between what Iranians want and what they can. Wanting Khomeinism to be gone is one thing, having the capabilities to remove is another thing.

Short of an armed insurrection, either through outside help (not going to happen under Obama) or ideally the Army staging a coup (which likely will trigger a civil war with the Guards), the entire regime won't go away with a wimper. Short of a miracle. I think the most promising prospect would be an Army coup hand-in-hand with civilian riots, protests and strikes.

[bert]

.......fasl el-khitab, an archaic term meaning “the end of discussion.......

That is the ultimate tag line

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks neverdem.

[G8 Diplomat]

“Now we have had 25 years of a failed Islamic revolution in Iran, and the people do not want an Islamic regime anymore.” —Hussein Khomeini, grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini

Ah, the irony....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

And we have this :

Mousavi: Protests will continue until regime backs down

And:

Iran: There Will Be Blood

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Major background story ping!

[PapaBear3625]

This is the reason that Iraq's Sistani pretty-much tried to stay out of direct politics.

When Islam runs the government, people's anger against the government will translate into anger against Islam itself.

[sionnsar]

Folks, I know neither Arabic nor Parsi though I’ve been around both a little. A very little. Still many of the terms here somehow sound to me like they are Arabic and not Parsi. Are they, or are they not?