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Don't start bombing Iran just yet
National Post ^ | February 13, 2010 | David Frum

Posted on 02/13/2010 11:04:17 PM PST by BlackVeil

"Go ahead — hit me.”

That’s what the Iranian regime is saying to the United States.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claims his scientists have enriched a batch of uranium to 20% radioactivity, well past the level needed for electricity production, but closer to the 90% level required for warheads. He boasted that his country should now be considered a “nuclear state.”

Nations bent on nuclear breakout do not usually issue progress reports. They move stealthily, until they are ready to detonate a finished weapon. That’s what India did in the 1970s, ... By contrast, the Iran nuclear program issues press releases like a second-place political campaign. Why? Two possible answers:

The Iranian nuclear program is not going very well. Lacking an actual completed weapon, the Iranian mullahs may seek to gain some of the political benefits of weaponizing by boasting ...

Might the regime be deliberately provoking a foreign strike? ... The regime may hope that a foreign air raid will rally a disaffected population.

Whatever the reason, the regime’s blatant goading does suggest that military caution is warranted.

Here are some of the questions that military planners would have to consider: Do we know the location of all Iranian nuclear facilities? How much bombing will it require to destroy all important sites? If sites are underground and hardened by concrete, will the bombers have to keep pounding for two, three or more days? What kind of civilian casualties should we expect? ...But maybe the most important question to consider is: What effect would air strikes have upon Iranian public opinion? The ideal outcome for Iran is a regime change brought about by the Iranian people themselves. Many Iran experts claim that the Iranian population is the most pro-Western in the Muslim world. Would an air war alienate them? ...

(Excerpt) Read more at network.nationalpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: frum; frum4alqaeda; frum4dnc; frum4iran; frum4obama; frum4romney; frum4terrorists; frumantigop; frumantiusa; frumriran; iran; romney4iran; romney4obama
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More commenatary. This one has a cautious note.
1 posted on 02/13/2010 11:04:17 PM PST by BlackVeil
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To: BlackVeil

Frum is scum. And dumb, dumb, dumb!


2 posted on 02/13/2010 11:10:17 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2 million for Sarah Palin: What will you do?)
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To: BlackVeil

Stuff the bombs up Frumm’s ........

and then DROP HIM on Iran.


3 posted on 02/13/2010 11:11:34 PM PST by gwilhelm56 (OBAMA ... Orwell's 1984 was a WARNING ... NOT a TEXTBOOK!!!)
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To: BlackVeil

David who?


4 posted on 02/13/2010 11:27:19 PM PST by Eagles6 ( Typical White Guy: Christian, Constitutionalist, Heterosexual, Redneck.)
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To: BlackVeil

>>>”The regime may hope that a foreign air raid will rally a disaffected population.”

Is this the “cautionary note”?

Who is the major financier of the IRI Reformists, who started the riots in Iran after their favorite candidate didn’t win? Do these ppl still want the Nukes?

Their leaders Karroubi & Moussavi still say so, OR, at best are silent. They say it’s up to the Supreme Leader and Iranians (their supporters) about Nukes. Go Figure!

Does IRI’s mullah Rafsanjani (a major financier of the Green Movement) ring a bell?

I’d give them up til June 2010. Exactly one yr since these IRI’s *other* reformist faction started their riots & sent a lotta ppl to their deaths in the interest of their non-existent “freedom & democracy” for 31 yrs.

~~~~~~~

I repeat, per previous post:

Always useless sanctions have been the talk for a very long time since Bush Admin (guess 9 yrs now, delayed every few months, each time & thereafter w/ new admin) ...

Does Islamic Republic of Iran care about *Sanctions* ?

Why not just come out and say: We accept Iran as a Nuclear Power. We have over $1 trillion in debt, China supports & has Major deals with Islamic Republic of Iran .... China is also America’s #1 creditor in debt. Can America make a move when “Piper who pays calls the tune?”

We may just move to Canada & participate in Winter Olympics!


5 posted on 02/13/2010 11:29:40 PM PST by odds
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To: BlackVeil
Good Lord, Frum is all but begging not to bomb Iran, all while Imanutjob continues to promise that he's gonna get nukes and launch them at Israel and the US.

And what arguments does he put forth? Nothing but maximum FUD. He'd clearly have millions vaporized in Israel before anything definite be concluded about Iran's intent.

You're nothing but seditious, murderous garbage, Frum - you're a profoundly evil man.

6 posted on 02/13/2010 11:37:43 PM PST by Talisker (When you find a turtle on top of a fence post, you can be damn sure it didn't get there on it's own.)
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To: BlackVeil
I love how Frum comes up with these obvious questions, as if no one has asked these 1000 times already.

This is Katie Couric level journalism.

7 posted on 02/13/2010 11:38:14 PM PST by lawnguy (The function of wisdom is to discriminate between good and evil-Cicero)
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To: BlackVeil

It’s just amazing how far ahead we were, considering how countries are working hard and struggling just to be where we were 65 years ago with regard to nuclear weapons.


8 posted on 02/13/2010 11:49:42 PM PST by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: BlackVeil
"Go ahead — hit me.”

Oh heck, why not? It's Valentine's Day.


9 posted on 02/14/2010 12:35:04 AM PST by Daffynition (What's all this about hellfire and Dalmatians?)
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To: BlackVeil

There’s nothing wrong with Iran that a cure of double-digit megatons can’t fix. Don’t you think, o healer of nations?


10 posted on 02/14/2010 12:37:22 AM PST by Hardraade
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To: Daffynition

11 posted on 02/14/2010 12:49:34 AM PST by Cobra64
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To: Cobra64
Where's the love?


12 posted on 02/14/2010 1:21:59 AM PST by Daffynition (What's all this about hellfire and Dalmatians?)
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To: Daffynition; FARS

Yes ... ah, where is the love? A small detail - Iranians really like St Valentine’s Day. They like festivals in general, and this day has more of a profile in recent years.


13 posted on 02/14/2010 2:10:04 AM PST by BlackVeil
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To: BlackVeil
Two possible answers: The Iranian nuclear program is not going very well ... The regime may hope that a foreign air raid will rally a disaffected population.

Or the program may be well ahead of the reported progress points. They may be announcing disinformation to convince those who can be influenced by our Code Pinkers and other morons that there is no urgency when the actual enrichment is at or above 90%. We're already two years later than we should have been on solving the Iran problem, and I hope we don't go even one more week without doing the right thing.

14 posted on 02/14/2010 2:33:23 AM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: BlackVeil
But maybe the most important question to consider is: What effect would air strikes have upon Iranian public opinion?

No, the most important question to consider is: does the acquisition of an atomic bomb and a delivery system (whether by missile or by stealth) by the current Iranian regime pose a sufficiently grave strategic and economic threat to the United States that a military strike, despite the difficulties and objections raised in this article, must be made?

In my view it does because the entire balance of power in the Middle East will be distorted; the world might well be thrown into depression by the disruption of oil supplies; possessed of the bomb, the Iranians will be able to blackmail their oil-producing neighbors to wage wars of petroleum against the West; the proliferation of atomic weapons throughout the world will become inevitable; other Arab nations around the Persian Gulf will certainly acquire the bomb; nuclear war will become far more likely; Iran might succeed in smuggling a bomb(S) into the Homeland and might be crazy enough to do it.

Mr. Frum's analysis makes some sense if it is understood as being confined to a plea for delay but not as a paradigm for considering America's national security interests.


15 posted on 02/14/2010 2:46:53 AM PST by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: BlackVeil
"Here are some of the questions that military planners would have to consider:..."

Well, I'm not going to be disrespectful, even though I disagree with David on the Iranian situation and other political and defense topics. I know that our military Chiefs continue to thoroughly consider all of those important questions more than most of us would imagine. ...and many other questions. Our problem might actually be one of too much caution: too many admirals (great floating artillery) and not enough generals (battlefield commanders who call for artillery when needed) in charge.


16 posted on 02/14/2010 2:55:08 AM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: BlackVeil

17 posted on 02/14/2010 3:55:35 AM PST by Daffynition (What's all this about hellfire and Dalmatians?)
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To: BlackVeil
The Iranians will be nuclear because Frum and Team Romney
threw Election 2008 to Obama.

And they care what the "Iranian public opinion" is?

What traitors to America they are.


The McCain/Palin ticket was up ++8 to 10 pts. in some polls, days prior to the election.
So rather than helping the GOP, Romney and
TeamROMNEY decided …… to attack Gov. Palin to throw Election2008.

"Frum was indeed a critic of Palin, calling her nomination a "huge mistake" during an October 13 (2008, weeks before the election) Early Show appearance."


David Frum: "Two of our most plausible candidates for president in 2012 are leading Mormons: Mitt Romney and Utah governor Jon Huntsman."


David Frum: "I have a lot of regard for Mitt Romney as a man and politician… I will support him without qualm."


Late in October, The American Spectator's The Prowler revealed:
"Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers…
have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election.
'Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,'
says one former Romney aide…
'The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney.
"Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a 'diva' and was going off message intentionally."


The Palmetto Scoop reported: "One of the first stories to hit the national airwaves was
the claim of a major internal strife between close McCain aides and the folks handling his running mate Sarah Palin."
"I’m told by very good sources that this was indeed the case and that a rift had developed, but it was between Palin’s people and the staffers brought on from the failed presidential campaign of former Gov. Mitt Romney, not McCain aides."
"The sources said nearly 80 percent of Romney’s former staff was absorbed by McCain and these individuals were responsible for what amounts to a premeditated, last-minute sabotage of Palin."
… aides loyal to Romney inside the McCain campaign, said The Scoop, reportedly saw
that Palin would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or 2016, which made her a threat to another presidential quest by Romney.


Erick Erickson, who organized Operation Leper, said:
"These staffers are now out trying to finish her off ….hoping it would ingratiate themselves with Mitt Romney."


"Who's the Palin Leaker from the McCain Campaign?
National Review Online The publication of a Vanity Fair profile of Sarah Palin
appears to have opened old wounds in the McCain campaign.
... the source of the “Diva” leak was Nicolle Wallace’s husband."


Who benefits most from Sanford meltdown? Californian (that's right) Mitt Romney


"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"

"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"

"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"

"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"

"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"



18 posted on 02/14/2010 3:59:58 AM PST by Diogenesis (Alea iacta est.)
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To: BlackVeil

I’m really sorry about this, but IMO, we don’t have another thirty or more years for cultural changes by way of public affairs movements. It’s more likely that if we continue to follow the current paradigm, nukes will fly. The East-West balance of power is about to change very quickly in an unstable environment. At first thought, that might seem to be a good situation for Iran: a close ally of the East. But it might also be wise to think again.


19 posted on 02/14/2010 4:00:55 AM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: familyop

The Regime in Iran is ready to fall. If we had a CIA that was good as we deserve, they would have been able to help the anti government protesters and maybe get rid of the nut job in chief there.
The People of Iran dont want the current regime, but might rally behind it if attacked. The Germans thought the Russian people would welcome them, not realizing the people werent fighting for Stalin but for thier homes. A revolution would be better but most likey not in the cards.


20 posted on 02/14/2010 4:27:24 AM PST by Yorlik803 (better to die on your feet than live on your knees.)
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