Posted on 07/21/2010 10:53:49 AM PDT by conservativegramma
The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to.
How? Gallup is combining two different sampling methods into one so-called trend of Registered Voters (complete with captioned graph), getting different results, but pretending they show one trend all the same.....
Notice, they call the series one measure, even though it’s at least two different kinds of polls with two different kinds of sampling pools. You cannot pretend that a poll of all adults and a poll filtered by registered voters are part of the same series, even if the same questions are asked. That’s Polling 101, and whoever’s responsible for the Gallup release should have known this, and certainly whoever’s responsible for oversight of the Gallup releases would know this.
Somebody’s lying. I have no reason to believe that Gallup’s actual polling is fabricated, but it’s easy to see that how Gallup packages its results is designed to mislead readers into seeing trends that just aren’t there. Observe the Gallup trend, per Real Clear Politics, with polls of adults distinguished from polls of registered voters.....
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
I heard several media lefties bragging about this poll and as soon as I heard “gallup”, I knew it was bogus.
Yeah but now you can tell them exactly how its bogus. Watch the steam come out of their ears.
The polling outfits know that they only have to be right on the lead-up to Election Day. That is when everybody gets to check their work. Every other day of the year, they are free to make it up and pursue their own agendas.
Still, non-leftists need to attempt to get the best possible results, on November 2 and beyond, no matter what anybody says and no matter what any poll results are. Having non-leftists win big, on November 2 and beyond, must become a reality, if this country is ever going to practice capitalism again!
Same here. I stick with Ras.
Yes, exactly. 50-50, it could have gone the other way, showing a generic poll with Republicans 12% over 'rats, just as easily.
with “all adults” you can vastly oversample all of the 18 yr old high-school senior skulls full of mush
...... my original comment when gallup first announced the new generic ballot news .
,,, UNBELIEVABLE !
You mean political pollsters actually lie?? No way! (sarc/)
This is all the more reason not to trust one poll. look as many as you can, combine them and then you can see trends.
thats why I love Real Clear Politics for giving us an overall picture.
Something had to be up with that 12-point swing in one month.
bump
I don’t think it’ll be easy to win even without fraud. The Republicans haven’t restored faith in themselves. They aren’t running on a conservative agenda. they are remaining non-comittal while letting activists run a conservative agenda. At best they are mirroring the Democrat’s tactics of the last two elections and running against the majority party. Even sould they win I don’t take that as cause for celebration since they’ll continue to try and conduct business as usual.
I do think Republicans will win the House but we have a lot of work ahead even if they do to hold them accountable.
Still, no poll has that dramatic of a shift without cause. The financial bill was not sufficient cause despite Gallop claiming it was. Either there was something shady done to the poll or tey got an unusually large Democrat sample making it an outlier.
Still, no poll has that dramatic of a shift without cause. The financial bill was not sufficient cause despite Gallop claiming it was. Either there was something shady done to the poll or tey got an unusually large Democrat sample making it an outlier.Every Gallup poll is an outlier. The only one they truly care about getting right is the one the day before the election. The only one that is representative and stable is Rasmussen. He has shown the last few election cycles to be dead-on, and he polls likely voters every day so you can see real trends not phantom ones.
Gallup’s response was.....?
I’m shocked I tell you, shocked.
bttt
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