[newzjunkey]

I sit on the edge of district lines. At first look, those draft maps couldn't be more useless to me. There's insufficient context to tell where the shifts are.

The commission must not be able to afford spell check. "Introduction," page two, "VOTING RIGHS ACT."

The "Narrative" link returns a 404. Typical.

[p. henry]

My first impression is that the proposed map for San Diego County (where I live) is not too bad. We currently have three Pubbies and two Dems. I think the new map has one safe Dem, three safe Pubbies and possibly one (mine) tossup. It may in fact favor a Dem, but it seems less safe for my really bad Representative (Susan Davis) than her current district.

[newzjunkey]

I've been looking at the "detail maps," it looks like they aim to pick up a House seat for the Dems in San Diego.

The 50th (Bilbray-R) appears under attack. It's hacked and merged with the 53rd (Davis-D) district downtown which could flip it. They carve a new district into an east and south county area which looks like potential Democrat territory.

[scrabblehack]

http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/crc-draft-congressional-plan/

They’ve given the districts letter codes instead of numbers.

Gallegly R and McKeon R are in the same district.
Issa R and Bilbray R are in the same district.
Chu D and Gary Miller R are in the same district.
Dreier is now in a definite Dem district.
Loretta Sanchez appears very beatable.

Charlie Cook has Gallegly, Bilbray, and Gary Miller losing.
Possibly Miller could move to ONTPM - he’d still be at a disadvantage but much less of a disadvantage than he is in SGVDB.

Other pairs/trios:

Speier D and Eshoo D
Linda Sanchez D and Richardson D
Denham R, Costa D, and Cardoza D (Denham slight favorite)
Sherman D and Berman D
Baca D and Lewis R (seat favors Baca)
Stark D and McNerney D
Becerra D and Roybal-Allard D
Rohrabacher R and Campbell R
Matsui D and McClintock R (seat favors Matsui)
Rohrabacher R and Campbell R
Filner D and Davis D

Eshoo could move to SNMSC; maybe Richardson would move to HTGCC. The IMSAN seat favors the Dems, so maybe Costa would move to it and avoid a primary fight with Cardoza.
SFVET also favors the Dems; Sherman and Berman could work a deal that one moves there.

Lewis appears to be at a substantial disadvantage in SBRIA;
if he wanted to be a team player he could run in RVMVN — if he’s selfish he’ll run in INMSB (a Republican could win in his sleep there).

Not sure about McNerney - I’m thinking he’d be the one to move rather than Stark - STANI (R’s favored) or SNJOA (D’s favored).

There’s no empty district next to ELABH - so not sure what happens to Becerra vs. Roybal-Allard. Becerra probably has better funding.

Not sure about McClintock either - I’d guess he moves to FTHLL or possibly his old home in EVENT.

Campbell could move to STHOC.

IMSAN is more heavily Democrat than CHNCS; Filner and Davis might each *prefer* to move to IMSAN.

Overall R’s appear to gain a seat.