Posted on 08/31/2011 10:36:10 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[snip]
The expectation was that the enthusiasm gap would decline in the 2012 election, when Barack Obama was back on the ballot, and so too was a Republican presidential candidate. But with Obama’s poll numbers dropping even among self-identified Democrats and liberals, you could imagine the enthusiasm gap dropping by less than the White House had hoped. That would be particularly true if Republicans nominate Romney, who can appeals to Democrat culturally -- he did win elections in Massachusetts, after all -- and manages to project the sense that he is, at heart, a competent technocrat who is not nearly as extreme as his party.
Perry, by contrast, is much more extreme than his party.....He’s much more interested in playing the cowboy-vs-cityboy culture card. And you can see the effects taking hold.....
This is the sort of countermobilization that the Obama campaign is unlikely to see if they run against Romney but can almost bet on if they run against Perry. Perry excites people who agree with him and scares people who don’t. That does imply some offsetting effect on the Republican side, as he may turn out more GOP voters than Romney would. But given the Republican Party’s desire to get Obama out of office, it’s hard to imagine too many conservatives staying home under any circumstances.
But it’s not that hard to imagine some Democrats staying home. That is, unless the other name on the ballot is Perry, or someone of similar ideological leanings. Fear is as effective in getting people to vote as hope. And if the Obama campaign isn’t able to recapture the hope that turned its voters out in the 2008 campaign, it may find a candidate like Perry useful for filling in the gap.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Obama and his supporters have nothing to run on, so they will run up the tattered old class hated, starve old people and race flags.
Not one mention of Independents. Not one, because they have fled Right.
Doesn’t work that way. Candidates win when their base is enthusiastic. The notion that independents swing elections is a myth.
The Left was plenty motivated in 2004, and look how that turned out. Then, in 2008, they thought they had found their messiah, and he won.
Picking a “good enough” candidate doesn’t work. A candidate has to excite their base.
Good point. Perry should consider that if and when the thought of Perry choosing Giuliani as his running mate ever arises again. Perry supporters here were giddy at the thought.
The conservative base has rejected pro-abortion, pro-gay and anti-gun Rudy Giuliani once before. Perry should think long and hard about giving them the chance to do it again.
To further the point, the GOP base was excited about Bush in 2000, while the Democrats were lukewarm about Gore.
In 1996, the GOP was not excited about Dole, and Clinton won.
In 1992, the Perot was the most exciting candidate, which allowed Slick to win with 43%.
There are, of course, exceptions, as when both candidates are bad, such as 1968 and 1988.
Ezra Klein is not very intelligent. No surprise there. He is just a kid. But he ain’t no wiz-kid.
I agree! And they're stuck with Obama and watching Perry excite the base.
Heck, even if left of center Huntsman, or slightly less left of center Romney, gets the GOP nomination (God forbid)..... The left will be mobilized.their leaders have already declared war on anything to the right of Hugo Chavez.
Heck, even if left of center Huntsman, or slightly less left of center Romney, gets the GOP nomination (God forbid)..... The left will be mobilized.their leaders have already declared war on anything to the right of Hugo Chavez.
Dang satellite glitch. Sorry about the double post.
The Left is hoping they can get some discouraged voters to the polls to hang on to a few Senate and House seats.
This election will be a political sea change.
I hope you are right. You SHOULD be, in even a slightly rational world, but I have so little faith in the GOP establishment elite leadership that I fear it will not be.
Can’t get over the impact of that visual.
Rick Perry could very well be the last president to ever have grown up in the country.
We that did are a dying breed, and in my opinion this helps explain much of his appeal to older voters.
I did see a poll where he has very strong appeal with older people.
I think they see many things in his character and much of that does go to his roots.
I think his ties to Romney that no one wants to talk about are interesting.
The moderates are playing the Perry supporters like a bunch of fiddles.
You really are a hoot.
Romney is/will be the Democrat candidate in the Republican primaries. Hordes of Democrats will become Republicans for a season in order to put him over. Pray for a seriously contested Democrat primary season to keep them home. if Democrats thought Romney had a chance against the kenyanmugabe they would be heaping ordure on him already, not touting him as the “Republican” who can keep the kenyan’s base home.
Mitt Perry/Rick Romney -- the RINO ticket!
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