Posted on 09/23/2012 3:36:29 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
...President Obama’s campaign manager, spoke by conference call to more than 100 members of his Virginia staff last Sunday night to ask whether they’re meeting their door-knocking, phone-calling and voter-registering goals—and to urge them: “Now is the time to push even harder.”
.....Obama’s advisers view complacency as a special threat because they have built so much of their strategy around a vast field operation to register new voters urge them to the polls or persuade that tiny band of undecided Americans to choose Obama. The effort is entering crunch time now, with registration deadlines looming and early voting underway in a few states. But it is an effort that depends heavily on the energy and enthusiasm of thousands of field workers and volunteers across the country. Anything that could suppress that enthusiasm — like the idea that Romney is sunk—makes nerves jangle in Obama’s Chicago headquarters.
And they are facing a torrent of media coverage—and comedy routines—reinforcing the narrative that momentum favors Obama. “The Daily Show’s” Jon Stewart won’t stop talking about Clint Eastwood’s now-infamous monologue with a chair. Pundits have declared a recent Politico piece about dissent within the Romney campaign tantamount to an “obituary.” And most recently,the news and late-night shows have endlessly played a newly uncovered video clip of Romney declaring that nearly half of Americans “believe they are victims” and that “the government has a responsibility to take care of them.”
Worse for Obama, the political activists who make up his field operation pay more attention to this stuff than the electorate overall......
...Such urgency has been apparent in the sprawling crowds Obama has drawn to political rallies in Colorado Ohio,Florida and Virginia in recent weeks. But it may also be at least partly the fruits of rhetorical seeds planted by the campaign and his allies....
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
".......The good news for Romney? Fifty-two percent of Florida voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction and only 43 percent say it's on the right track.
What's more, Romney's recent spate of negative publicity, including the release of a secret recording of him suggesting that the 47 percent of voters backing Obama are dependent on government and view themselves as victims, appears to have done little or no damage to the Republican nominee in Florida.
"We've had this swirl of coverage over the last couple of weeks, and it doesn't seem to have made a real impact with average voters," said Coker, who led the poll last week just as Romney's 47 percent comment dominated the news. "The talking class and the analysts, and the inside the beltway bubble people all think this stuff is big and important, and the voters don't think it's all that important.".......
...Democrats had hoped to chip away at the GOP's typical advantage among seniors by highlighting Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's proposal to change Medicare's guaranteed benefit for younger people. The poll shows little sign that has worked."
Asking former Obama voters to go out and vote for him again is like asking a burglarized home owner to be a character witness at his trial.
“Anything that could suppress that enthusiasm — like the idea that Romney is sunk—makes nerves jangle in Obama’s Chicago headquarters.”
Gee! Like bogus polls?
Wind! Whirlwind!
The next request will be behind the scenes...and that’s sending EVERY registered Dem an “easy”, “mail in”, “No postage needed” ballot and you can bet this is happening.
“The next request will be behind the scenes...and that’s sending EVERY registered Dem an “easy”, “mail in”, “No postage needed” ballot and you can bet this is happening.”
I’ve never voted early or absentee. How is voter verification addressed? What’s to keep someone from just mailing in a ton of bogus votes from people not likely to vote?
I think everyone knows that you can cheat in these elections particularly the early voting because of the extra time element....so it’s all about not getting caught.
When I went to vote in the local Republican Party, only Republicans where supervising.
This is so damn phony! "Listen up Harry! Just in case that medical breakthru occurs on reversing menopause and I get pregnant, we need to be able to kill our love child."
Exactly.
The word will go out to put the kibosh on the 2,4,10 point Obama leads polls and overnight it will turn into a neck and neck race for no particular reason.
These people nauseate me.
Now, a couple of pieces of REAL evidence (not polls):
Here in Dayton, OH the organization for Romney is light years ahead of McCain and apparently a little ahead of Rove's 04 organization. We have EXTENSIVE records and read outs of every voter, and ALL Republicans and indies and party switchers between 08 and now are both called personally--- no robot ally's and walked with a sate drop. The county chairman who has been calling indies since May said his responses are overwhelming in this group for Romney.
But just as an example of how the organization works, one precinct captain told me that when a person requests an absentee/early ballot, they are "walked" the day after they receive the ballot!
Little piece of evidence #2: look at the OH SecState website for absentee ballot requests. In Franklin Co. (Columbus ) Rs lead by 4000 and in Hamilton northwest of Cincy Rs lead by 5500 and in Dark Co, which has a 30,000 Dem advantage, Rs LEAD by 700.
Anecdotal, yes. Micro evidence? Yes. But unlike polling, this is real evidence. In NC, Rs lead big in early voting. Unfortunately, in IA, Dems lead big (the good news there is that the state has a GOP trend and advantage last I looked.)
I cannot take seriously any poll based on a 2008 turnout model. I'm around college kids every day and can tell you with every bit of certainty I have that they will not turn out for Obama in ANY semblance to 2008. My guess is that between votes for R/R and non-votes, their numbers alone will be half this time alone. Blacks will vote in the same PERCENTAGES but not the same NUMBERS. I estimate total black vote will be down 5-7% nationally this year. None of this is "wishful thinking" or "fantasy" but realistic assumptions based on the evidence of 2009, 2010, and 2011.
And, finally, to see the depths of disgust with Dems, just look at OH in 2010 where cities such as Toledo (or Akron, I forget) and Dayton---two dem-dominated cities with heavy black populations---threw out black Dem mayos and put in white Republicans. And if you look at SB 5---our version of Wisconsin's anti-union bill---it FAILED in 2011 even though these same voters put in more Republicans and voted against Obamacare 2:1. That tells me that while Dems and indies wanted to keep "teachers and police" they STILL split their votes and supported Republicans everywhere else.
And of course there is your own town, which gave Mad Hatter McLin the boot in favor of independent Leitzell.
AND elected a GOP councilman over the Dem in 2011.
Yes, Rush is always right just like he was 4 years ago, and 2006, and..
Talk radio giant Rush Limbaugh says that Sen. John McCain will score a stunning upset over Sen. Barack Obama and win the presidency on Nov. 4. “”
[Rush] Limbaugh Predicts McCain Victory NewsMax ^ | October 31, 2008 | David A. Patten
I scanned through the Sunday shows and for those Romney spokesmen/women being interviewed it was brutal for them. They had to listen to Romney's comments to his rich donors replayed and try to explain them, and they couldnt. No one can. He only meant them for that audience.
They just need to be vigilent and tell them to get to the polls on November 8th and everything will be ok.
So now we have absentee early voting numbers. So far, in OH, they are looking damn good for us. But if your state is one of those I listed, let's do less generalizing an a little bit of "statisticalizing" to use a Bushism. Give me the numbers.
1. Obama’s spent millions on his ground game. This is not new for him, so its not too late. The question is, is their ground game paying off?
2. Its obvious there is a different level of enthusiasm in 2012 vs 2008. It boggles my mind that anyone is even daring to vote Obama, but the kooldaid drinkers are out there.
3. glad to hear your organization in OH is doing better than prior cycles. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence aligning with what you are saying, but OTOH ‘the other side gets a vote’ and they are not sitting still.
Suppose Obama was a Republican.
You know what the spin would be from the Leftist media machine?
“Obama is in serious trouble. No incumbent President polling less then 50% has ever won reelection. That the Dem is polling neck and neck with Obama is a sign the election is all but over for Obama.”
Kind of curious why “conservatives” who watched the Leftist media manufacture a fraudulent Bush National Guard story in 2004 and corruptly coordinated coverage with the Obama campaign in 2008 via the Jour-0-list website now assume that magically in 2012 the same politically corrupt media is suddenly become “objective” and “honest”?
See parksstp’s analysis above. If he’s right, we lose IA and NV.
We know this is true because this is exactly what was going on in 2004.
The more disturbing lesson of 2004 is that an incumbent in trouble can win via a 'base' election even if they lose the independent vote, and Obama is playing that strategy.
Romney should be messaging inside and defeating the Obama strategy... and THERE IS A WAY. Its obvious: Make every Obama pander to the left something he pays a PRICE for. Gay marriage. taxpayer funded abortions. Stimulus and bailouts. His claims on jobs and auto bailout - undercut them all with the facts on $25 billion cost to 'save' GM which went bankrupt anyway, and the 8%+ unemployment. Even attack him on spiking the ball over Bin laden, pointing out that Al Qaeda is alive and our Libyan ambassador is dead. MAKE EVERY OBAMA CLAIM AN ANCHOR AROUND HIS NECK. This Jujistu would basically get the majority of Americans who oppose Obama's extremism appalled at what he is doing.
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