Very good even with a skewed turnout model.
Notice the date.
Florida’s voter registration leans about 5 points more Democratic. But that’s from 2-1 Democrat in the 1980s, and the surge in Republican registration is continuing, so it’s very probably that massive number of people who originally registered as Democrat now regard themselves as Republican.
Current voter registration in FL, I believe, is about D+4. Factor in the net difference between Republican enthusiasm on the one hand, and Massive Democrat Vote Fraud on the other, and I still don’t see FL turnout being anywhere near D+8.
Early voting numbers are between what they were in 2004 (R favored) and 2008 (Bonzo’s bounce) so I’ll say Romney wins about 52-46 and MAYBE we oust that scumbag Bill Nelson at last.