I’ve been tracking this since end of May. I posted the prediction thread in September.
3 week incubation was the red flag.
Right, you posted some numbers in September, but not in June.
Do yo0u think we will have a billion infections by 2016?
“So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
Election Day, 2016 = Disease burns itself out because it ran out of people a couple of months ago (98.304 billion cases by Nov 1, 2016 based on monthly doubling)
All of this will be true IF the disease keeps doubling cases each month, which it has been since May 2014.
That should be an easier way for you to track where this is going based on the numbers WHO is publishing. You go up and look at what the Oct 1 number and you pray I’m wrong. When Nov 1 rolls around, do the same thing, and so on.”
Your calculations are based on reported numbers. The disease is in Africa.
There is absolutely no reason to believe the reported numbers that are certainly on the low side. The Africans simply have no way to provide an accurate count.