Posted on 12/27/2015 8:41:05 AM PST by Isara
DES MOINES | Ted Cruz has assembled an impressive presidential campaign structure in Iowa, veteran political observers here say, with one going so far as to describe Cruz's campaign as perhaps "the most sophisticated" the first-in-the-nation caucus state has ever witnessed.
Because of that grassroots organization, Cruz is primed to maintain his recent surge in the polls and win the Iowa Republican caucuses in five weeks, those observers say.
Cruz, a tea party firebrand and first-term U.S. senator from Texas, was the first Republican candidate to enter the presidential race, on March 23. Nine months later, he has overtaken longtime front-runner Donald Trump in multiple polls published recently in Iowa, including a 10-percentage-point lead in the highly regarded Iowa Poll.
In Iowa, Cruz has appealed to the state's abundance of evangelical Republicans and attempted to tap into the anti-establishment sentiment that pervades GOP voters this year.
Cruz's success also stems from a massive and innovative campaign structure, according to Iowa campaign veterans.
"(Cruz) has probably put together one of the most sophisticated, if not the most sophisticated, organizational efforts this state has ever seen," said Dave Nagle, a three-term Democratic congressman and now a practicing attorney in Waterloo.
Doug Gross, who led Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign in Iowa and has served on numerous other campaigns, called Cruz's the best campaign operation among the 2016 candidates.
"Frankly, it's a textbook operation how to win a caucus campaign," Gross said.
Cruz started his Iowa campaign by solidifying support among tea party voters, the bloc that launched his election to the U.S. Senate in 2010, according to Catherine Frazier, the national press secretary for Cruz's campaign. Then, Frazier said, Cruz courted evangelical voters, libertarians and even moderates.
Cruz's campaign has a chairman in all 99 counties - many with several co-chairs - more than 2,000 volunteers and a network of pastors advocating for Cruz, according to Frazier.
The campaign conducted an effective voter-targeting effort among various ideologies within the GOP and waited to pick off voters who in recent weeks have peeled off from supporting Trump and Ben Carson, said Nagle and Gross.
"What (Cruz) planned is working precisely to his desires," Gross said.
John Stineman, who led Steve Forbes' presidential campaign in Iowa in 2000 and has worked 14 years as a consultant, described Cruz's campaign as similar to the data-driven, history-making effort Barack Obama employed here in 2008 and 2012.
"It's a very elaborate, very aggressive, very well-informed grassroots swarming strategy," Stineman said.
Cruz has also won the endorsement primary in Iowa. With the state's top elected Republicans - U.S. Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst and Gov. Terry Branstad - pledging to stay out of the endorsement game, Cruz scored a trifecta with endorsements from staunch conservative U.S. Rep. Steve King, social conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats and conservative radio host Steve Deace.
"One thing that's incredible is that this started off as a race with everyone looking at Sen. Cruz as a tea party candidate," Frazier said. "And here we are today: He is viewed as not only a tea party candidate but an evangelical candidate. And that's incredibly important in Iowa."
The efforts appear to be paying off.
Cruz's polling average in Iowa on Nov. 1, as calculated by Real Clear Politics, still was in the single digits at 9.6 percent, fourth-best in the expansive Republican field.
That polling average in the past two months has more than tripled to 30.2 percent, which leads all Republicans.
While other Republican candidates have surged to the top of the GOP field and then faltered - think Scott Walker and Carson - observers in Iowa said they think Cruz is better positioned to remain strong in the race through the Feb. 1 caucuses.
"I'd be shocked if he doesn't win going away," Gross said of Cruz. "He built his organization, then he developed his narrative, and that organization captured the narrative, while others are still trying to build a narrative. And it's too late to build a narrative."
Cruz could get "Huckabee-type numbers," Stineman said, referring to Mike Huckabee's then-record-setting 2008 victory in the Iowa caucuses. Stineman said Cruz appears to be solidifying a healthy percentage of the state's most conservative voters, while multiple candidates - Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich, for example - all appear to be competing for more moderate Republican voters.
"Failure for one of those folks to really take off and get Romney-like numbers, I think that's to Cruz's benefit," Stineman said. "It points to why he's not only in the lead, but why he's, I think, at this point favored to win."
Cruz, however, cannot spend the next five weeks coasting to a victory in Iowa, observers cautioned.
That which so many GOP voters like about Cruz - his willingness to rankle even his Republican colleagues in the U.S. Senate - also upsets some Republicans, Stineman noted.
And Nagle said there exists the threat that Cruz is peaking too early. Now that Cruz is battling for the top spot in the polls, the focus from media and voters will intensify, Nagle said.
"I used to be widely quoted with the 'Nagle's three rules for success in the Iowa caucus.' Rule No. 1 is organize, rule No. 2 is organize, and rule No. 3 is get hot at the end," Nagle said. "If (Cruz) has any danger right now, it's he's gotten hot too early. He'd be much better to be peaking in the second or third week of January."
And yet Nagle thinks, thanks in large part to that campaign organization that has helped solidify conservative voters, Cruz is in position to sustain his recent polling numbers and be competitive on caucus night and even after the presidential primary process leaves Iowa.
"He's in prime position to do very well here," Nagle said. "And I also think he's in prime position to do very well on Super Tuesday.
"He's the real deal."
“Cruz’s campaign has a chairman in all 99 counties”
So does Trump’s campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-OBN8XA_x0
Thank you Thank You Thank You!
Finally we see that totally bogus chart crumpled, tossed in the circular file, taken out, uncrumpled and fixed up just right!
Whaa Booob Beckel you don't see? LoL. Trump already has the people and most business is conducted by using one of these these days you maroons.
And doing a caucus is pretty much showing up to vote. There's nothing hard about it. If some dingbat is dragging feet or whatever you say lets vote now.
And another thing Boob Beckel. You see all those thousands of people who show up for Trump rallies in Iowa? What do you and you others think is happening there besides cheering and listening to Trump? These guys have mouse brains.
Good one! Trump theme song; The Who - “We won’t get schlonged again”.
But Trump has big rallies, so he should be declared the winner.
LoL.
= :^)
Anyone who marginalizes Trump simply has to be ignoring, for one thing, his rally turnouts. Those elitists have a problem with getting stuck staring at one cherry-picked tree until they are so cross-eyed they think the fuzzy thing they see is the whole forest.
It’s essential that Iowa residents with strong ties to the county/community call the shots on personal contacts with local voters. Part of a smart campaign operation with a great ground game, especially in a caucus campaign, is knowing what will, and will not, be well received by the intended audience. The data-driven aspect comes into play in knowing which issue(s) are most likely important to a voter personally contacted. We don’t want to waste their time and aggravate them in the process. Out of state volunteers will work in the background when appropriate. Of the 2000+ Cruz volunteers, volunteers from Texas number around 500 that will travel to and from Iowa between now and Feb 1. I expect significantly fewer than 500 from Texas will be in Iowa at any given time.
Normally somewhere around 20% of the registered GOP voters show up for the caucuses.
That leaves around 80% for potential caucusers if they can be motivated. From that
80% group is where Trump or the others will have get their winning margins, imo.
Cruz will be strong in the base 20%.
Good for him.
As far as I’m concerned there are only two GOP Contenders, Cruz (1) and Trump (2). The rest are non entities, period.
I am also fully aware that if not for Trump, the News cycle would have been Jeb! 24/7 and things would be completely different for anyone running against him.
This will be the most interesting Election Season I can recall. But then again, at my Age I don’t recall much.
I just laugh at these CNN doofuses @ post 21 link. They BS to the audience saying or alluding that caucusing is some super difficult task. A child could do it. Where, when, and how is advertised by the party. Just showing up is 99% about caucusing.
I like that woman. She’s quite good.
That guy on the right feigns dismay, but doesn’t give a hoot what Obama utters as president.
The guy on the right Wilson is virtual nutbar when by himself and tweeting about Trump. He's a candidate for the loony bin.
"Consultant Rick Wilson Appears to Have Lost His Mind With Bizarre Twitter Rant"
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3376180/posts
GOPe Ricky
I’d love to see that.
If that ever happened, you’d be in for a treat. I’d be the best prepared and hit them from every imaginable angle that could be thought of if need be.
The argument about who the pro-ILLEGAL-immigration lobby hates more is like counting the angels dancing on the head of a pin. They hate them both with a passion.
Why wait for actual elections?
It appears that Cruz has done the same and in a normal year is poised for a big Iowa win. But Trump appears to be energizing a large part of that 80% that hasn't been turning out.
Also, people exaggerate the difficulty of participating in a caucus. It's not a big deal. You show up at your precinct and stand for a couple of hours for your candidate. Granted, most Iowans haven't bothered because nobody has really inspired them to come out on a cold Iowa winter's night.
The evangelical crowd turns out because they get into that sort of thing and they are proud of the fact that they can affect the results and make a big national story. I think Trump's strategy is getting a good portion of that 80% that doesn't normally participate to turn out.
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