Stalingrad.
War.
Old School style.
Posted on 02/02/2016 4:42:33 PM PST by BeauBo
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There are no good guys in the Middle East.The less bad guys, Tyrant Assad forces, are in control. Assad is no threat to the West. The al qaeda backed al nusra rebel forces Obama backs are. Have to go with Assad and the Russkies on this one.
Stalingrad.
War.
Old School style.
I found myself pulling for Assad as the least bad choice since day one - when Obama, Saudi Arabia and Turkey launched their proxy-war on Syria. With it came the heavy propaganda and BS about the "Arab Spring," chemical weapons, mid-east Google execs hoping for the future, and of course, Obama and McCain's "moderate" Muslim allies poised to take over.
Homs. War 2015 style!
“Front lines, with bulges and pockets to pinch off.”
These tactical bulges and pockets, all part of a larger operation to capture a 50-60 mile wide corridor - the last major supply route from Turkey.
Kurds from Afrin are advancing from the West, the Regime is advancing from the South, but I have not yet seen signs of an expected big Kurdish move from the East (across the Euphrates River).
Their likely target, Manbij, is under increased air attack though - Russian, American and French. Manbij is where the Jihadis established “Little London” where a lot of the “permanent party” foreign jihadis could enjoy marginally better stocked stores, and which was used as the main transit point for new foreign jihadis entering Syria. ISIS has been relocating their prisoners back to Raqaa, in anticipation of Manbij being overrun.
The Kurds coming from the East have to cross a single choke point (the Mishreen Dam) to get over the Euphrates to assault Manbij. If Turkey does invade, they could drive tanks into Manbij in an hour or two (barring Russian air attack), cut them off from retreat back over the dam, and go all General Patton on their rear areas.
So I am not sure if they are being cautious, if they have had delays in getting everything assembled down a single road, if conditions have not yet been set by the air preparation because of priorities elsewhere, or if this was just the plan (to leave some time for the enemy to retreat, or keep them guessing where to reinforce) - but I have not seen reports of the ground offensive kicking off in that sector yet.
Yeah and that’s one of the nicer areas.
I pray that the Syrian Government, the pro-government militias, the insurgent militias, Hezbullah forces, and ISIS are all totally victorious against each other and kill all their enemies! And may the Kurds emerge unscathed and pick up the pieces.
“Aren’t the Iranians involved here?”
The Iranians played a big military role, and took some heavy casualties, including several of their senior officers. It was their bloodiest engagement since the Iran/Iraq War in the 1980’s. Since the situation has stabilized, and Assad is no longer on the brink of defeat, the Iranians have redeployed most of their combat forces back home, or pulled them off the lines for rear security.
Iranian advisors still pretty much run the Shi’ite militias though.
How are the Kurds doing?
I have heard nothing bad - but nothing that say Putin’s forces (if they win and Assad stays in control of parts of Syria) are going to leave them to live either.
Why not? Do Oboma’s forces and Oboma’s decisions represent US interests?
So what will happen to the Kurds if Assad/Putin win?
Wow. Who knew? Did you hear Trump tweeted out something nasty today?
One wonders what the bloody Americans will do.
It said crack Hezbollah units were in the initial invasion.
“How are the Kurds doing?”
Since last Summer, with American support, Syrian Kurds have swept across the Northern Border of Syria with Turkey, all the way from the Iraqi border, to the Euphrates River, leaving only a 50-60 mile corridor be tween them and the isolated Kudrish Canton of Afrin.
In the process, they cut Raqaa off from easy access to Turkey. When (as seems likely), the Kurds close this last corridor (probably this month), ISIS in Syria will be cut off from their main source of supply and reinforcements. ISIS is lucky if they can smuggle a felafel through Kurdish checkpoints - they don’t fool around.
Politically, the Kurds in Syria are different from the Kurds in Iraq. The two main Kurdish parties in Iraq (KDP, PUK) are pretty pragmatic on economics, even though they had socialist platforms in their early decades (somewhat to draw Soviet support). The main Kurdish militia in Syria (YPG) is affiliated with a hard Left political party - essentially the same as that of the PKK Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey - often called cult-like or Maoist. A bunch of Kurdish forces collaborated to liberate Sinjar (home of the Yazidis - ethnic Kurds) - KDP, YPG, and PKK.
The Syria Kurds share a strong sense of Kurdish nationalism with those in Iraq (and Turkey and Iran). They all share a common vision of an independent Kurdistan, composed of pretty well identified future Cantons of historically Kurdish homelands - although they disagree strongly on who will run it.
The Kurdish areas of Northern Syria include three historically Kurdish Cantons - Afrin in the West, Kobane in the center, and Jazira in the East. The Syrian Kurds are strongly motivated to join these areas into a continuous area they call Rojava (West Kurdistan). They want independence or functional autonomy (like the Kurds in Iraq) for Rojava.
The Syrian Government is against independence, and formally opposed to autonomy. For now, a Kurdish buffer zone with Turkey is essential for the Syrian regime. In the end, most Kurds probably anticipate the Assad Regime and the Russians will turn on them when they don’t need them anymore. That is the history of the Kurds and their neighbors. The old Kurdish saying goes, “Turks, Persians, Arabs; our only friends are the mountains”.
The worse things stay between the Turks and the Russians, the better they will be between Russia and the Kurds. Kurds (especially the Barzani-run KDP Party out of Erbil, Iraq), have been pretty masterful in playing the power broker among the many shifting groups. They are able to gain support from the Americans and the Russians, the Israelis and the Iranians. It is not uncommon to find a Kurd who speaks three or four languages fluently.
Turkey is strongly opposed to the Syrian Kurds establishing a Kurdish safe haven along their border. The PKK guerrillas in Turkey (essentially the same political movement as the YPG Kurds in Syria) have run a long terrorist insurrection inside Turkey, killing 30-40 thousand Turks - dwarfing the scale of the IRA in England, for example.
Erdogan in Turkey consolidated power by jailing the top brass of the military for several years, but recently they have been released, after apparently having agreed that the Kurds were the real enemy.
Summer of 2015 was probably the worst part of the war for Assad. The rebels were getting real close to Assad’s homeland in Latakia, the home of Assad’s tribe known as the Alawites.
Thank you for the great insight.
All commentary is greatly valued.
Feel free to let me know if there is something in the region that you are curious about, and I’ll be happy to give an opinion.
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