Posted on 02/13/2016 8:57:24 PM PST by amorphous
Recent public comments by the Turkish government have hinted at a possible invasion into Syrian territory to “stabilize†the situation and secure Turkey’s national security. Significant clashes between Turkish army and security forces with elements of the YPG and PKK, which have exacted a costly toll on the Kurdish civilian population have been raging in southern Turkey and northern Syria in recent months. Russian satellite surveillance and human intelligence employed by both Russian and Syria in the region have confirmed the build-up of troops and material on the border.
It is reasonable to believe that Turkey is preparing to salvage its failed policy of supporting Islamic fundamentalist mercenaries and terrorist groups in Syria by invading and establishing a safe area for these groups along its southern border with Syria, while at the same time dealing a crushing blow to the Kurdish forces that have been successful in fighting them. Turkey is not only trying to topple the Assad government in Syrian, but is also trying to liquidate the Kurdish threat both in Iraq and Syria, as well as within its own borders.
Turkey’s membership in NATO complicates its plans of invasion. Unless Turkey is itself attacked, the NATO alliance is not obligated to defend the nation. Turkey will have to engineer a provocation that frames it as the target of an aggression either by Kurdish forces from beyond its borders or by Syrian or Russian forces combating its terrorist allies in Syria. Such a false flag provocation in not outside of the realm of possibility. When a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24, claims that the bomber had strayed into Turkish airspace for a number of minutes and ignored radio warnings from the Turkish aircraft were proven to be patently false.
(Excerpt) Read more at southfront.org ...
WTF would Putin do then?
The strategic position of Russian forces in Syria implies that the Russians, as usual, are bluffing.
Why so many paint Ivan as 10 feet tall is beyond me.
Right through the gap between Turkey and Jordan.
They can be intercepted anywhere over Iraq. They will need dozens of daily flights which can’t be hidden.
Both the Saudis (F15s) and Turks can make this into a gauntlet. And unless the Russians can get the Iraqis to let them not just overfly but base there (joining the bigger war), no escorts.
BTW, counting noses, it looks like the Russians have 1/3 to 1/4 the air transport assets the US does, and 1/10th the air tankers.
Look, this is simply a poor strategic position. They have extremely insecure logistics and have popped a major base on the wrong side of an enemy power. Whatever else they may do to Turkey, in Syria the Turks can have their own way.
I don't.
Russia will not lose all the assets you suggest and not strike the opposing force on the ground, on their bases.
Every air base in the middle east would become a target.
The flight path would be over Caspian, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Same as their cruise missile strikes from the east. The Russians already know Obama will back down. That occurred when retard Kerry blurted, what do you want me to do, go to war with russia ? Not even on the table.
Iran will be supporting Russia also. So the eastern corrider will be the safest. And the Russians have a base in Armenia. Coming from the East is no problem.
I would be happier seeing the US kicked out of NATO. Why should Americans die trying to save Europeans who have a suicide death wish.
They are Kremlin trolls, they use RT, Sputnik, SouthFront and other Russian propaganda outfit to promote Putin
You can read about it here https://de.usembassy.gov/exposing-russian-disinformation/
and here http://www.stopfake.org/en/news
Better Putin than Erdogan.
-Are we going to back ISIS-supporting Turkey (Muslims) over the Christian Russians and stable regime Assad?-
President Obama has in every case backed and enabled Iran. Iran is backing Assad. So, yes.
Isis is being waved in front of our faces, but as far as the coming conflict goes they are just an excuse. None of the combatants gives one wit about Isis. The problem as far as the combatants are concerned is the success or failure of the Assad regime. Incidentally, the Christians back Assad.
- The Turks have a lot of firepower.-
Russia has to do this on the cheap or Putin will face problems at home. Putin is already under much pressure because of his adventures in other areas. He has nuclear weapons and the Russians have already had lower level officials make veiled threats about world war. I expect that Russia could deploy and then use tactical nuclear weapons. They may first select a rebel target to serve as a warning. If that doesn’t keep Turkey and SA at bay then they would probably hit advancing columns.
The world does not seem to realize Putin-s resolve to win at any cost. Also, we have a weak and ineffectual president who Putin probably believes will not use nuclear weapons and who would still have no politically defensible reason to use them if Russia is careful in their first use.
Nuclear weapons have not been used by any party in the past because of an unspoken but understood belief that the United States simply would not allow it. But there is no longer any resolve behind the United States leadership. By abandoning the much hated hard diplomacy used by conservatives for the much vaunted lead-from-behind-smart-power preferred by liberals Obama is provoking the world into a much more dangerous standoff.
“The world does not seem to realize Putin’s resolve to win at any cost.”
It all hinges on this, quite frankly. If Putin is indeed committed to victory at any cost - and that includes the use of tactical nukes - then the Western world has badly miscalculated the situation.
Personally, I wouldn’t be shocked one iota if Russia lit off a tactical nuke against some “rebel” group or another to serve as a warning shot to Turkey and the Saudis. And let’s be honest.....that’d be a real attention-grabber wouldn’t it?
So what will the Turks and the Saudis do after that? That’s what it’s all going to come down to.
-So what will the Turks and the Saudis do after that? That’s what it’s all going to come down to.-
Both Erdogan and King Abdullah have problems at home that would be made significantly, possibly fatally worse by even the prospect of significant loses in a foreign war. However, leaders like these are isolated in a virtual world where they can make no wrong decision. It is where their decisions intersect with the reality the rest of the world experiences that armies lose lives and wars and countries fall into chaos.
Thanks for the Putin propaganda link. Looks like a good one.
Erdogan is going to get himself Ceaucescued if he keeps this up.
I don’t believe Russia will have the loses the other guy thinks either.
To some here, making an assessment favorable to Russia means that they are “10 feet tall.” Nonsense. Of course, they happily do that while painting NATO to the same height, ironically.
No one has mentioned Naval assets - the cruiser off Syria has S-300 batteries which can work with the S-400 ashore, and who knows what amount of cruise missiles the Russian ships in the Caspian have, not to mention assets at Odessa.
The Turks may have more tanks in theater, but they are not T-90 proof or even perhaps upgraded T-72 proof. The T-90 was designed to take hits from Abrams and Leopards and keep on ticking. One T-90 recently took 7 hits form RPGs and 2 TOWs - no damage ... and no RPG and TOW operators - life expectancy after firing on a T-90 ranges from 2-5 seconds.
Possibly one reason the Turks shelled the airbase at Azaz was to gauge the Russian reaction, hoping to provoke an Article 5 reaction. The Russians did not go into this operation without a plan, witness the systematic efficiency they have achieved in advancing to Aleppo using only 40 planes, and some Spetz. They are not going to fall for some Turkish feint. This lack of taking the bait will embolden the Turks; eventually the Turks will go too far and make a fatal mistake; Article 5 will then be off the table.
No matter who is right here, once Turks tangle with the Russians they may lose a substantial portion of their forces ... but any force lost will be the Kurd’s gain and, if the Turks are hurt bad enough, the Kurds may be able to create their state along the length of the border.
Putin might have a money problem, but he could possibly find a way to overcome it. If not who will replace him? The Turks have a Kurd problem for which they have no non-military solution and any military operation could have results opposite of the intention.
or, since the Russian effort is largely salesmanship, they can quietly with draw.
More about SouthFront
Southfront doesn’t just distribute or redistribute disinfo, it is a production center for Kremlin disinfo. The zashifrovka agenturno-operativnogo meropriyatiya is pretty good with this one, at least as regards the primary southfront.org domain.
Quite professional in a way one would expect from an intelligence officer and/or criminal. Not good enough to completely hide their tracks, but better than what many others do.
http://aktivnyye.com/t/20160120-southfront.html
Even more disturbing is the extent to which Western businessmen and politicians are more or less openly on Putin's payroll, from the former German Chancellor and Foreign Minister on Gazprom's board, to France's National Front getting "loans" from Russia, to the City of London banksters.
As far as I can tell, the philosophy of "free markets" is now used to justify and hide an enormous amount of crony capitalism, including baleful foreign influence.
See this link about the Cold War 2.0 http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3396208/posts?page=48#48
I have been talking about this problem for a few years, but most people have been living in a state of denial. Fortunately John Schindler is in a position to spend time writing about this. Read his tweets: https://twitter.com/20committee
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