2016 Presidential Primary Data - Feb 28th

FREE REPUBLIC | Feb 28, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

This thread is about the 2016 Presdidentail Primary Data I have accumulated to date. I have been tracking it since September 1st, and am now set up to track specifically by the vote, and not including non-viote polls any longer.

We will let the vote itself tell us what we need to know. Here's the table with the raw numbers:

I have established four charts for the GOP and four for the DNC. They incvlude the following for each:

-State by State percentage of the Vote
-Overall average fo the total Vote
-Cumulative Vote Mumbers
-Cumulative Delegate Count (including Super Delegates for the DNC)

Here are the GOP Presidnetial Primary Charts:

Here are the GOP Presidnetial Primary Charts:

The overall trends are clear.

There are three major primary dates here in March and as the initial data shows, I will be tracking the vote through those three dates.

I believe by the end of March we will either have both nominees determined, or the trends will make it clear.

Of particular interests is how Cruz and Rubio do in their home states. Without strong wins in their home states, I do not believe either has any chance of being able to stop Trump from getting the nomination.

If they do win strong in their home states...and right now it looks like Cruz may win by 10% in TX, and it looks bad for Rubio in FL right now...then they will also each have to pick up several other wins over the next three weeks. in order to solidify anyy chance they have of thwarting Trump.

See: How Cruz and Rubio are doing in their Home States.

We shall see.

[Jeff Head]

A look at the data as of today, February 28, 2016

[Jeff Head]

FYI...for comment and your thoughts.

[be-baw]

Thanks for sharing your hard work. Great stuff.

[smoothsailing]

fyi

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/28/treehouse-challenge-2016-primary-election-stats/#more-113015

[datura]

Thanks Jeff, as always.

[samtheman]

Excellent!

[stockpirate]

Thx for the info Jeff. Here’s a great read about the plans of the GOPe to rig the process.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/26/tripwire-alert-the-rnc-gope-marco-rubio-chris-christie-and-donald-trump/

[BlueNgold]

Well done.
Thank you.

[Jeff Head]

Thanks.

I know the GOPe is hoping against hope that they can get a brokered convention and then try and pick their own.

Problem is, I believe Trump is almost sure to get more than enough delegates to keep that from happening.

If not, it may well be that he is so close that it will be he who chooses whom he teams with to go over the top.

I believe the GOPe is going to lose in any case...and that will be a very needed thing.

I guess it is possible that Crus and Rubio together may have enough...but that s a very outside chance.

If they did, and teamed together, that would almost surely drive Trump to a 3rd Party run and they would lose anyway.

I just do not see a path where the GOPe can jury rig things in any way to produce a win.

[Gadsden1st]

Thanks!

[Repeal The 17th]

Just comparing my notes to your notes...
Your dates and states don’t match up with what I have.
03/01/2016
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wyoming

03/05/2016
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine

03/06/2016
Puerto Rico

03/08/2016
Hawaii
Idaho
Michigan
Mississippi

03/12/2016
District of Columbia
Guam

03/15/2015
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
North Carolina
Marianas
Ohio

[bgill]

Very nice. Keep us updated, please.

[odawg]

There must be something afoot with the RINOs.

I was just polled; it was straight forward, asking my opinion on the candidates, who I was strongly in favor of, etc.

The guy kept getting around to what I thought about Rubio, and then he asked if a Romney endorsement of Rubio would change my opinion.

I let him know that I would not vote for the girlie man under any circumstances.

He then asked who I would vote for if it were between Rubio and Kasich. I figured that was a back door verification question about Rubio and said Kaisch.

I told him I did not like Kaisch’s views on immigration.

Wanted to know how committed I was to Trump. Wanted to know how I considered myself on the intensity scale of conservatism.

Wanted to know if the immigration issue was more important than national security. I said the immigration issue was national security.

[Jack Black]

Repeal & Jeff:

Here is the GOP web link for 2016 Nomination Process

Repeal: your list shows Wyoming next Tuesday, the GOP list does not. I think Jeff seems to match what is on their web site. (Web sites are not always right, though, even official ones).

Jeff: Here are the two crucial numbers you might want to put at the bottom of the "delegates" charts

Delegates to the Convention: 2,472
Delegates Needed to Win the Nomination (50%+1): 1,237

Also, note that like the Democrats, Team Elephant does have Superdelegates, though there are far fewer of them. In other words the GOP process is more determined by the voters and caucus goers, the Dem process is more weighted to the insiders. (A fun point to continue reminding Bernie Sanders supporters of)

Again, here are the details from the GOP web site on how the number of delegates is arrived at for the GOP:

At-Large Delegates (AL) are statewide delegates who are residents of that state and are selected at large. Each state receives 10 AL delegates plus additional AL delegates based on the state’s past Republican electoral successes. (10 delegates + bonus)

Congressional District (CD) Delegates must be residents of and selected by the congressional district they represent. Each state gets three CD delegates per district. (3 delegates per district)

RNC Members are automatically national convention delegates and include the state’s national committeeman, national committeewoman, and state chair. (3 delegates)

[Jack Black]

Fantastic work. With all the professional news organizations and highly funded election organizations out there you would think this would not be needed. However it is, and your charts are the simplest and clearest I've seen. Well done.

Any chance of putting them somewhere easier to find than in a FR thread, like a web site?

[GOPJ]

Very nice Jeff... can you ping us for updates? Thanks.

[Repeal The 17th]

Thanks!
I will go back and review mine again.
You are right that not all of the websites agree.
It is especially difficult to find what happens to the
onesies and twosies in the delegate count for those candidates
who drop out (Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul), apparently
that is decided by the individual state party rules and
they can either be re-allocated or go to the convention “unbound”.

[Repeal The 17th]

OK, here is the asterisk at the very bottom of the page you inked to:
-
* American Samoa (9 delegates), Colorado (37 delegates),
Guam (9 delegates), North Dakota (28 delegates),
Wyoming (29 delegates), and the U.S. Virgin Islands (9 delegates)
will not hold presidential preference votes in 2016.
-
Thanks, again.

[Doomonyou]

Thanks Jeff!

[Jack Black]

I have a quibble with the Dem "Cumulative Vote" chart. The numbers for IA are not voters, they are pseudo-delegates or something. Tens of thosands of voters participated in the Iowa caucusus, the state party chose not to release the vote totals.

I would say to keep the data apples and apples you should merely omit it with a note: no vote totals released.

It is the contention of the Sanders camp that he got far more votes, and he has some good talking points for that argument.