[Jeff Head]

My thoughts and analysis of Super Tuesday's results.

[Jeff Head]

FYI.

[revivaljoe]

GOOD ANALYSIS! i AM INTERESTED IN THE HISPANIC - BLACK VOTE IN THE LATEST RUN OF VOTES

[Jeff Head]

FYI

[gunsequalfreedom]

Good read. A few typos.

[stocksthatgoup]

Actually GOPe wants the gravy train to keep running. Trump is a threat to blow up the greased rails and palms of Crony Capitalism.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Pretty much my thoughts as well. Very nice and impartial analysis, something we don’t see much of lately here on FR.

[kabar]

A lot will come down to March 15 and the winner take all races in FL and Ohio. If Trump takes FL, Rubio is out. If he takes Ohio, Kasich is out. If he takes both, the race is over for all intents and purposes.

If Trump loses both, then the momentum will start to turn against him. That said, he will not be getting out and he has plenty of chances to pick up delegates in the Northeast and elsewhere. If Trump wins just FL or Ohio, the momentum will be on his side going forward that will make him unstoppable.

The bottom line is that by March 15, we will have a much better idea of what will happen.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

bump

[mrsmith]

So good!
Heck the only reason I have now for following the races is it gives me an excuse to drink!

[MplsSteve]

Jeff, as always, a great analysis. I wish I were as good with numbers and statistics as you are.

But for all of the excitement and new voters that Trump brings in, he seems to alienate just as many. Let’s take Minnesota as an example. Anecdotally, from what I’ve seen and read among my fellow caucus-goers, many showed up because they were alarmed by a Trump candidacy. A lot of these were first-time caucus goers and not your normal party or conservative activists.

A lot can happen between now and November - but at this point, I see a solid bloc of Republicans, Dems and Independents that won’t vote for Trump...period. He needs some of these voters and I’m not sure he can get them in his fold.

[2nd Amendment]

Very good analysis. Bump

[Pietro]

Nice analysis and I too will vote for Trump even though I have qualms about some of the things he says.

What's your thought on a Trump/Cruz ticket?

[DouglasKC]

Very good analysis. Either Cruz or trump would be infinitely better then Clinton. But what's clear about Cruz is that he has a record of alienating others. Yes, he has conservative values that he espouses but it seems like he has zero success into translating that into motivating others to embrace those values. He's kind of like the guy that is book smart, but is clueless when it comes to actually doing a task.

Trump on the other hand is committed to what he says. It's against his nature NOT to accomplish what he sets out to do. And what he's proposing is pretty conservative stuff. No, he doesn't couch it in pretty terms and high sounding rhetoric like Cruz but that's part of Cruz's problem. Reagan KNEW how to talk to people. Reagan knew how to convince, exhort and encourage others to adopt his viewpoint. Same with Trump.

[onona]

Great analysis. Thanks for sharing.

[TomGuy]

You might consider some way of showing candidates standings with regard to the Rule #40 of having 50%+1 delegates in a minimum of 8 states.

That rule will likely not have significance for Trump after the next superTuesday in 2 weeks, since more contests will be winner-take-all. It would have an impact on Cruz (currently with 1 of 8) and Rubio (currently 0 of 8).

Trump has 5 of 8.

[PA Engineer]

My thoughts as a well. This is a well thought out analysis. Rubio is the Uniparty spoiler. They have too much to lose and will take the GOPe ship into the rocks. Mr. Trump will have challenges with Rubio in the race, however he will survive them.

I agree, the only path to victory for Senator Cruz is for Rubio to drop out after Florida. I think Mr. Trump will win Florida, however it is the margin of the win that will determine if further pressure is brought to bear on Rubio to drop out.

If it is a blow out, then I think the GOPe will begin to jump to support Cruz. If it is only by a non-majority margin, then Rubio will stay in and the GOPe will destroy itself.

Thanks for the post.

[HippyLoggerBiker]

Thank you for a well thought out statement.

Civility is our friend.

HLB

[Tunehead54]

If only he was not running at X42’s behest.... Makes me wonder what the game is...

[GOPJ]

Very nice. Thanks Jeff.

[bert]

——We simply do not know.-—

There we have it.