Speaker Paul Ryan Suggests He May Reach for the Nomination in a Contested Convention

I just don’t get the obsession with this guy, he’s been treated like the “second coming” since he arrived on the scene not that long ago. To me, he’s most famous for doing the most obviously stupid thing you can do in politics, which is to threaten people’s Social Security checks.

"They are not picked by the candidates — they are picked by the local party hacks, ie. the GOPe."

Actually, in many states the delegates ARE picked by the candidates. See this link for Illinois, for example:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IL-R

It's a state by state thing. Historically, the party has always been fairly faithful at supplying loyal delegates even when the rules don't require it. But this has been anything but a typical election, so who knows?

If it means anything to you, Newt Gingrich, who seems to be something of a process wonk, believes that most of the delegates will be loyal to their candidates. I'd guess he knows more than you or I about this, but I wouldn't bet my house on that.

Dear Paul I would not waste the gasoline to go vote for you.

It’s true I’ve never been directly involved, but from what I’ve read, the overall result is that 70% of delegates are not selected by the campaigns. I don’t remember where I read the 70% figure so maybe it was off-base. I hope so.

From Wiki:

“At least in name, superdelegates are not involved in the Republican Party nomination process. There are delegates to the Republican National Convention that are seated automatically, but they are limited to three per state, consisting of the state chairsperson and two district-level committee members.”

That means there will be either 150 or 165 (depending on whether the territories are included or just states) delegates that are seated and “committed” to a candidate and the candidate had no say in their selection. If Trump wins a total of 35 primaries, there could be 105 delegates that are “his” but have no real loyalty to him. There are many other cases where local procedures for delegate selection can result in delegates with no loyalty to their candidate. 165 is a far cry from 70%, but it is still a big chunk of delegates that we KNOW the candidate had no choice over.

It is a mess. A much more transparent process would simply allow the candidate to choose all of his own delegates from each state.

Yes, some states may send loyal delegates, but others will send almost entire delegations that feel they are “free agents” outside that single first vote they are bound to. On all other matters, like changes to Rule 40B, they may feel free to vote against “their” candidate’s interests.
Remember that Trump is the ONLY candidate that currently meets the “more than 50% of delegates from 8 states” requirement to be a nominee. It is entirely possibly that Cruz will not win more than 50% of delegates in any more states, and Kasick definitely won’t meet the 8 state minimum. So if Rule 40B remains in place, Trump will be the only allowed choice even if he falls short of 1237 delegates. If that is the case, then loyal Trump delegates would fight any change to Rule 40B and we’ll see if they do.

"Do you think I could be president, Brover Washington Jr.?"

"I totally think you could be president, Bromino acid."

"Would you vote for me, Broback Mountain?"

"I'd totally vote for you, Bilbro Baggins."

By my count, Cruz has 4 states already, and will have little trouble picking up at least 4 more. If he doesn't pick up 4 more, it's probably a moot point as that would almost certainly mean Trump has reached 1237.

I'm doubt we'll see Rule 40B stick around anyways. It's only been in effect one primary prior to this, and is obviously an unfair rule designed to tamper with the process by invalidating fairly won delegates. And of course it also blocks the establishment from putting forth a compromise candidate.

I've heard that Cruz was far more prepared for a floor fight before Trump even began to think about it, and that his celebrated ground game has stayed around in states after voting to try to influence the delegate selection to get pro-Cruz people in the state delegations. Whereas, I've hear that Trump was so confident of reaching 1237, that until recently, he just packed up and moved on after each state.

Rule 40B requires not just a win in a state but that you get 50% of the delegates for that state. What four states remaining do you think Cruz will win a majority of the delegates from ? Especially with Kasick still in the race. There are only MT & SD left in the winner-take-all type that Cruz could win and without WTA he is unlikely to get a majority of delegates.

I do think Trump will get over 1237, but there are definitely ways he could fail to get enough delegates even if he wins every remaining contest. With 3 candidates, it could go 40/35/25 in every state, Trump wins them all but has to split delegates except in the remaining 5 WTA contests, and Cruz never gets another majority of delegates anywhere.

How convenient, look at all the money he saved by not having to march the campaign trail.......

How about Trump and Cruz agree to back each other. They prove they are statesman seeking the common good.

If they were running neck and neck and it looked like neither would get the requisite votes, that might make sense. Else it's like asking the Broncos to accept a tie with the Panthers with a lead and seconds to go - makes no sense for the top dog to strop to scratch the ears of the beta dog - the beta dog needs to step up and work for what the People want, not actively try to thwart them "for their own good and by hoping for a contested/brokered convention.

Rubio showed more class by getting out of the way - hopefully Cruz will not follow this through to a ugly and messy end, but will wake up and realize that as a self-stated "champion" of the People, he needs to work for the People not for himself.

"What four states remaining do you think Cruz will win a majority of the delegates from ?"

Cruz is likely (nearly certain) to get a majority of delegates from Utah, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana.

In addition, even though their delegates are unbound, it's quite probable that a majority of delegates from the North Dakota and Wyoming would choose Cruz, and I've never heard anything about Rule 40B that it applies only to state delegations that are bound.

By the way, my projection model currently shows Trump at 1269, 32 over the number of delegates needed.

However, it wouldn't take a lot for him to miss... if I'm off just a hair in one WTA state, or in a dozen of WTA congressional districts, the flip to Cruz could be more than 32 delegates.