Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[Kaisersrsic]

Jeff -

I like your analysis, but I think that the path will need to be different from the one you outlined. I think that MT (27), SD (29) and probably NE (36) will go to Cruz. Trump would still have a path, but he will need to do better in the remaining states.

[proust]

"Ted can still win it at the ballot box. However, I just read an article that gives Ted Cruz the advantage in a contested convention."

Cruz supporters be like

[Jim W N]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

[John W]

Now? What about those who’ve been telling us this for moths here on FR?

[JoSixChip]

The GOP may try to prevent the second ballot from going to Cruz, or they may not. Perhaps Trump will agree to be Cruz’s Vice President and their combined effort will carry the day.

Good God, where do you people come from?

[usafa92]

After last night, I think there are 2 things that Trump should do. First, he needs to repeatedly call for Cruz to get out of the race since mathematically he cannot win. Over and over and over. Second, he should have Ivanka cut an ad with him calling out Cruz for his disgusting attacks on Melania and run the ad everywhere. Cruz likes to paint everything with a broad brush so turnabout is fair play. It would destroy Cruz with Republican women and garner Trump at least grudging admiration from independent women and possible some democrats.

[Logical me]

Utah is an example of corruption even in a Mormon run society. Utah is useless.

[kingu]

He got Jeb’s endorsement today, he's going all the way to the convention.

Game over, now it is just a question how many delegates everyone has and how many are disallowed under party rules.

Congratulations to Ted for his victory in Utah, congratulations to Trump for his victory in Arizona. Now it is just a waiting game to see who is thought to give a good fight for Hillary before tanking and giving liberals the White House.

[GingisK]

Should I really believe that Trump has a .237 of a delegate? Have people forgotten that ‘.’ has a well defined mathematical usage?

[samtheman]

Vote Trump

[Windflier]

“Perhaps Trump will agree to be Cruz’s Vice President and their combined effort will carry the day.”

Perhaps Ronald Reagan will agree to be George HW Bush’s VP.

Sounds about as logical as what you just said.

[bigbob]

no number means sh!t if the RNC changes the rules...

Their convention, their rules.

[taxcontrol]

I am a Cruz supporter but since it is not possible for Cruz to win the nomination on the first ballot and since the danger of the GOPe playing shenanigans during the convention is too great, My advice to Sen Cruz is simply this:

Got to Trump and offer to shutdown the effort and publicly support Trumps nomination if Trump will privately commit to nominating Cruz for the vacant SCOTUS position as the first nominee.

It Trump agrees, then he will clearly be the nominee going into the convention

[detective]

You counted Nebraska twice.

Trump probably won’t win Montana and South Dakota.

Other than that it seems reasonable.

[LNV]

According to the 538 site, there are 905 Republican delegates left in the 20 states and territories still to vote. Trump still needs approximately 483, or about 53%.

Also, according to the International Business Times, American Samoa gave a delegate each to Cruz and Trump, none to Kasich. Not sure what they’re going to do with the remaining 7. I did not include American Samoa in the numbers above.

[Political Junkie Too]

Cruz must be asked if he believes that party establishment will back him if he forces a floor fight.

If he says he does believe the party will support his second round bid, then he's fooling himself. They will use him to stop Trump and then cast him aside for their own self-interests.

This is politics, and the only thing that Cruz can count on is what he directly controls, and he does NOT control what the GOPe will do in round two no matter what they promise. They will turn on him before the echo of the round one closing gavel subsides.

If Cruz really thinks it is important to stop the Mcconnell lying wing of the Republican party, then his best bet now is to align with Trump and declare his delegate support for Trump.

If Cruz does this now, 1) he will instantly become the darling of the outsider movement, and 2) he will drastically change the current narrative of stopping Trump with a brokered convention. That story would become dead overnight instead of lingering on until July. The story will become the GOPe naked power grab, and they will lose control of that story quickly.

It's time for Cruz to have his Rubio moment, and step up to do the right thing.

-PJ

[stanne]

The establishment has been too late every step of the way.

The GOP is blinded by their collective loathing of those who would support any GOP conservative. With Trump stepping up the GOP has FEAR and loathing. They cannot see. They are tripping and falling and way to late.

To be supportive of Cruz now? Where were they back in the fall when everyone could see it?

They cannot see straight.

That alone will lose them the election. They probably want Hillary anyway, and have all along just like tgey don’t care for tge majority in the house and senate, forcing them out of the shadows with their positions on welcoming the invasion

They are bumbling idiots. Schmoozing Cruz at this late hour. So is he for falling for it

[1Old Pro]

It appears to be likely that Trump will get over the top based on your conservative analysis, in which I agree.

[Hostage]

> “Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent. I do not believe they were.”

Then read an eyewitness account:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3412679/posts

Not that it matters but having witnessed the Mormon Mafia in 2012, the above link describes exactly how they operate.

[niki]

Cruz is trying to “win” by sticking his foot out and tripping the front-runner.