Posted on 03/24/2016 7:57:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Until late yesterday, polling in Wisconsin’s primaries showed Donald Trump in a tight battle with … Marco Rubio. It had been over a month since anyone polled the next big battleground in the Republican primary until Emerson College filled the gap late yesterday. Instead of Trump having a ten-point lead over Rubio, though, the survey found that Ted Cruz had edged out in front 36/35 over Trump, and putting himself in position to take most of the state’s 42 delegates on April 5th:
As establishment Republicans look for ways to slow Donald Trump’s relentless march toward the party’s presidential nomination, Wisconsin’s winner-take-all GOP primary contest on April 5 offers some intriguing possibilities. In a statewide Emerson College poll released today, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is not only leading Trump 36% to 35% in the upcoming primary, but Cruz is only trailing Hillary Clinton by one point in a hypothetical general election matchup, 46% to 45%. In contrast, Trump is trailing both Clinton and her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, by the same 9-point
margin of 47% to 38% in a potential general election match-up.
The Democratic primary isn’t quite as close, but it’s not a blowout either:
In the Democratic primary, Clinton leads Sanders by 6 points, 50% to 44%, with 5% undecided. Wisconsin’s demographics bode well for Sanders, who has enjoyed his strongest wins in states with a low percentage of minorities and lopsided support for him among young voters. He leads Clinton 67% to 29% in the 18-34 age group and ties her at 48% among voters 35-54. As in other primaries Emerson College has polled, he trails her by large margins with older voters: 63% to 31% (ages 55-74) and 73% to 19% (ages 75 and up). Less than 10% of the state’s Democratic voters are African American or Latino, groups that have supported Clinton very heavily in other states.
Let’s stick with the GOP primary. Kasich falls far off the pace in Wisconsin with only 19% of the vote. According to Emerson’s data, he’s pulling more of that vote away from Cruz than Trump, as Cruz has higher favorability than Trump among Kasich voters, 36/27. If Wisconsin came down to a two-person race, Cruz might lead outside the margin of error. Trump might still win delegates by winning in one or more Congressional districts, but Cruz would win the statewide delegates and other CDs to boost his status in the delegate chase. If the polling from Emerson is accurate, Kasich probably can’t win a single delegate.
Why does this matter? Scott Walker stands poised to endorse either Cruz or Kasich; he’s made it clear that he won’t endorse Trump. Polling results like these would probably push Walker to endorse Cruz, and to do so soon, in order to get Kasich to back down. That would also be true of other Republicans who want to see Cruz block Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the convention. While the impact of those endorsements might be debatable, the potential impact might be enough to convince Kasich to look for greener pastures for his limited and declining resources. The only question would be where those pastures would be, if not in Wisconsin.
In a general election matchup, Trump fares worse than Cruz, although both come up short against Hillary. Trump would trail 38/47, losing women 33/52 and independents 33/47. Cruz, however, comes into the margin of error overall at 45/46, trailing among women by 41/49 and independents 41/45. (There are no head-to-head questions with Kasich.) In terms of overall favorability, Kasich performs the strongest at 52/30, while Cruz goes under water at 39/52. Trump’s favorability among registered voters in Wisconsin is atrocious, however, at 25/69. Hillary’s, by the way, is almost as bad as Cruz’ at 42/55.
How much does Wisconsin matter? In my book Going Red, I selected Wisconsin as a key swing state in the general election. Republicans should have no better time than now to push this state into GOP territory: Barack Obama will no longer be a factor, Walker has broken the public-employee unions’ power, and the voters now elect Republicans statewide rather than Democrats. However, this state will require both excellent ground organization and a message of pragmatic conservatism tied to local concerns in order to vote for its first Republican president since Ronald Reagan. At first blush, Kasich would be the best fit of the three, but Cruz easily out-organizes his rivals — and he knows how to tailor his message for each community.
In order to win in Wisconsin, one has to win big in the northeastern quadrant of the state, especially in Brown County. Reid Ribble, who won three terms in Congress in this region, told me what voters there want to see. “Genuineness and humility matters,” he says. “There are some very traditional values that are held dearly in northeast Wisconsin.” The candidate who wants Wisconsin has to have the ability to tap into that, or forego any hope of winning.
For now, though, the decision has to be about the nomination. If the GOP wants to win Wisconsin and its ten Electoral College votes, they had better hope Cruz pulls this off in the April 5th primary.
Update: It’s also worth noting that Trump’s Rust Belt path to the presidency depends on flipping Wisconsin. With a 25/69 favorability rating, that will be almost impossible, outside of a concession by Democrats. Wisconsin istoo much in the throes of partisan warfare for anyone with that kind of favorability rating to compete effectively for enough votes in the narrow middle that exists there.
According to “Five Thirty Eight,” Ted Cruz has an 80% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-republican/
Good deal. :-)
“Cruz wins about 5 states in the general and gets crushed in Mondale like numbers to Hillary in the general. “
And Trump loses every state to Hillary and all conservatives down the ticket also get trounced.
Why should anyone suspect that a poll by Emerson College would be accurate?
Why should anyone suspect that a poll by Emerson College is not fraudulent?
What does it feel like to have only your desperate dreams of losing to keep you warm?
We have 5 conservative talk radio hosts in the Milwaukee/ Madison area. They have spent the last 2 - 3 months with constant bashing and shaming Trump and his supporters. I believe Trump will have a challenge here. Plus it is Scott Walkers state.
Not only that, but the entire “deficit” claim was from a liberal talking point that even the liberals admitted was not true.
Specifically, Trump knows that Cruz is smarter, more specific, more organized, more experienced, more knowledgeable, more prepared, more moral, more truthful(!), more conservative, more diligent, and smarter than Trump.
You said, "smarter twice!"
That's because Cruz is TWICE as smart as "Chick'n" Trump.
I thought the Melania photo was tastefully done. It was highly approved by my husband who gave it a “hell yea”. Heide Cruz looks somewhat unhinged. We know she had previous mental health problems and we don’t know if she takes medication. Something about her eyes don’t look right.
I think going after Trumps family will kick up a big $h!t storm. Not smart of Lying Ted.
You may want to watch your name calling.
I'm a 30+ year Republican who's not buying into the Cruz 'Messiah' mantra. He's just another lifetime lawyer/politician who will be as ineffectual as the last guy.
No sale. Cruz is a lose.
Bahahahahaha....you're a real knee slapper.
Cruz will have voters staying home in droves. He'll get the few hard core conservatives to vote. The rest won't show up.
Why bother? He's an open borders dude just like Hillary.
Ted Cruz’s mother moved to Canada in 1967.
Ted Cruz was born in 1970, THREE years later.
Canada at the time required FIVE years of residence before becoming a citizen.
There may be other issues regarding NBC status for Ted Cruz, but it isn’t the citizenship of his mother - who was a U.S. citizen at the time of his birth.
I keep coming back to something Ted said. When dumping on Trump for ‘causing’ the violence at his event that Friday night, he said the leader of a campaign sets the tone from the top.
So if Ted is going to say something like that about Trump to blame him, then Ted dies by the same sword.
I haven’t googled to find every salacious photo of Melania. Others find her very attractive. I think she is pretty, but she’s not my type. I value her attitude, personality, and intelligence. The photo I saw looked quite tastefully done. I don’t know the full extent of her work, so that’s all I can say.
If men like to look at photos of scantily or unclad women, it’s not reasoned to trash the women who do it.
Some men don’t realize, women like to look at scantily clad women too. While they obviously (in most circumstances) don’t enjoy them on the same level men do, they still want to compare their physique to the model. That photo we’re discussing was more an art form that an off-color photo.
I have seen two interviews of her, and she is no fool.
She’s a lot more polished than what we have now, and she has common sense, which is very uncommon these days.
Trump and Cruz in virtual tie in Wisconsin.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
He keeps his word and has a true conservative approach.
Your loss. And America’s loss if we get the next corrupt/ criminal Democrat.
The problem with some Republicans - they either don’t understand or are just self serving to keep the control they have. They are democrat light.
If you are trusting Trump to run a conservative government, then you are in for a big surprise.
If we don’t get back to a conservative government, then we are doomed. We will get promises and not solutions. Continued spending will take us into crisis and bankruptcy.
What you fail to understand or refuse to acknowledge is that, while you still have faith in someone like Cruz, a lifetime political hack, there are many of us who don't have that faith any longer.
Cruz would be just another Bush.
Sorry, I want an outsider, not another politician.
Cruz’s mama was living in so many countries, I believe she bloomed where she was planted. So she probably thought they were destined to stay in Canada. She had no care to make sure her child became American. They lived as Canadians. When they came back to the States, when Cruz was four, he was still Canadian on paper. And stayed that way until he was 16 and needed a passport.
At that point she may have had to travel to Canada or send for his BC to help hm get the USA passport. Until that day, on paper, Cruz was a Canadian only. No, he wasn’t naturalized per se; his mother was American and able to confer citizenship on his at birth, BUT SHE DIDN’T until he was 16. It’s an optics thing.
amen
So you want Hillary.
You can have her.
Trump is not an outsider. He is connected with Democrats.
He will not deliver. He has no policy or workable solutions.
Kiss America Goodbye!
Trump rallies will take their toll very quickly. And current events usually strengthen him.
At the same time, some polls are now angling against him.
So, we’ll see.
FRegards ....
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