Okay, let’s be rational. Say Cruz wins on a 2nd ballot at the convention, after Trump goes into the convention a little short of 1237, but having won the majority of votes, the majority of delegates, and the majority of states.
Limping and bloodied coming out of a contested convention that Republican voters have been saying they do not want (look at the polls), what is Cruz’s path to 270? Look at an electoral map and, being rational, find me a path. It’s not there.
In addition to the Romney states, Cruz will have to win VA, FL, OH, and NV, all states he came in a distant third. All states where he wasn’t popular even before all the shenanigans began. All states that were blue in 2008 and 2012. These are 50-50 states, which cannot be won unless he holds the entire base together and gets moderates and independents to crossover.
What percentage of Trump voters, who feel disenfranchised by events in Cleveland, have to stay home in any one of those four states before Cruz can’t win? A very small percentage.
I’ve asked this question to several Cruz supporters. Most of the time I get crickets back, but two of them have admitted to me that Cruz can’t win. Hence my tagline.
Good!
First- “but having won the majority of votes, the majority of delegates, and the majority of states”
If Trump comes to the convention with majority of delegates, he’s the nominee, fair and square.
Majority of votes and majority of States is not a part of the equation, only majority of delegates counts. Trump should have known that from the gitgo (he did of course, the Walter act is just for you guys).
Because of the way Trump has chosen to campaign, he is very unlikely to win 1237 on a 2nd or subsequent ballots. A SERIOUS candidate can not piss down the backs of everyone who holds the cards and long-time political hack RNC Delegates hold those cards. Too many bridges unnecessarily burned.
Second - “what is Cruz’s path to 270?”
Because nobama and the Democrats has so alienated so many and from knowing history of many elections, I have been long convinced that ANY Republican will beat ANY Democrat this election.
This is our one last chance to correct liberalism that has gradually chocked America since FDR. We better get it right and with a real conservative this time! Cruz will do exactly that!
Third - “Trump voters, who feel disenfranchised”. I suspect that most are actually truly patriotic and will regain their sanity when Trump quits inciting them to act like him and his 4th grade Playground bully act (yes, Trump is acting. He is first and foremost a promoter).
For those that will pout and not vote, were likely to do the same even if Trump had never come on the scene. They are the same bunch that sat out 2012 and gave us Nobama 2.
Those may not be what you wanted to hear, but that is as close as one can come while being honest and rational.
Originally I was certain Trump and Cruz had something worked out between them and that would be damn OK for me. Suddenly when Cruz started moving up in the polls for Iowa, Trump turned on the nasty. It was just too obvious! That turned me off to Trump because I knew that Cruz was not any of the things Trump or his followers smeared him with.