Posted on 07/23/2016 10:57:36 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
I have found a definite trend where likely voter polls favor Trump and register voter polls favor Clinton.
For the recent rolling polls included in RealClearPolitics, the average has Clinton up 2.7%. If you include only LV polls, Trump is up 0.5%. This trend is not just with the recent polls though. I wrote a quick python script and copy pasted all the polls since 8/15 when Clinton and Trump were first in the same ballpark in polling. And found the trend continues all the way through. Break down in first comment since I need to format it:
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
------ Recent Polls -----------
Likely : Trump +0.50
Registered: Clinton +3.50
Overall : Clinton +2.70
When are post convention polls coming out?
Not sure, I am quite curious to see them also.
As soon as they can find one that looks good for the Klinton-Kaine-Kabal
I would be shocked if Trump isn’t up 5 to 10 points over hillary when all post polls comes out.
Broom Hillary will get a bump next week,as expected.
Debates will be decisive.Like Reagan, Trump will pull away in October.
Maybe sooner if America get hit hard by the R.O.P.
Not only that, but even in the “likely” polls that I’ve seen, their sampling is still D heavy. If you use 2012 D, R, I models (dubious because Cankles will NOT get the turnout levels Obama got, even in 2012), Trump is ahead in almost every poll. I think using likely, correct D level polling, he’s in single digits behind in NY!!
I’ve seen two polls today, one from L.A. Times and one from Gravis. Both have Trump up by two points.
The key, I suspect, is the people who have bought the line that Trump is an Ogre too easily. When they realize they have been lied to, Hillary will implode.
Trump's convention speech was fantastic, but not enough of those types were likely watching it. But I suspect enough of them will be watching the first debate.
Good points. I have some sympathy for the pollsters when they try to figure out how to sample this year. If they guess what the shift is this year, they are likely to get it wrong and look bad. Using last cycle as a template they will likely still be wrong, but they can’t be accused of pulling something out of the air.
No polls the day after Trump’s speech? Give me a break.
RCP is known for dropping polls to shift their average.
You are correct. A co-worker, we are both engineers, was commenting that he stayed awake late this week to watch the convention as he is convinced that Trump will be better just because he is a businessman and not a politician. Logical.
Then he asked why was Trump making accusations that Hillary lied about her e-mails. He said that she was exonerated by the FBI. It was right then and there as I was picking my jaw off the floor that I googled Trey Gowdy’s rapid fire questioning of Comey.
After picking up his jaw, he got visibly aggravated and started to proclaim in an elevated voice that this is high corruption, at which I just smiled and said; Welcome to the party, pal.
The media filter - GIGO = Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Now that Wiki Leaks has proved that NBC/WSJ manipulated polls results and CBS takes poll questions from the DNC will RCP still use them in their averages?
Your analysis fits well with my gut feel. We always do better with LV polls and they always are closer to the final results. Nate Silver has made a similar claim.
Keep up with the analysis. We need all the help we can get around here weeding through the propaganda polls.
You should note from the plot at your RCP link the cyclic nature of the polls. Every time it gets close, Hillary gets a bounce. Amazing luck. Or phony polling. Take your pick.
That’s the usual GOP/Dem difference. It is why the media, in propaganda mode likes to use registered—or even worse just live bodies answering the phone—for their polling.
Right before an actual election they all switch to “likely”, however, so they can quote results closer to the real results—and thus be seen as more accurate.
Overall or general polling is one thing but usually a presidential election is
decided in seven +- states. Hopefully we’ll see that type polling after the dems
finish their convention next week.
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