IBD/TIPP: Americans' Economic Outlook Hits 14-Month High

Investors Business Daily ^ | 8/09/2016 | JED GRAHAM

[expat_panama]

Americans' view of the economy rebounded in early August from the worst level in several years to the best since June 2015, according to the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.

The subgauge of the six-month economic outlook jumped to a still-dreary 44.7 from July's 36.7, which had matched the worst level since October 2013. The reading below the neutral 50 level still reflects a modestly pessimistic outlook.

The improved sentiment comes amid news of higher wages...

Separately, the National Federation of Independent Business reported on Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index rose slightly in July but remained on the soft side.

A gauge of expected business conditions rose 4 points but remained negative, signaling that more firms think conditions will deteriorate. The share of firms expecting to add jobs dipped one point to a net 11%. Gauges of capital spending plans and job openings rose to the best level of the recovery but still remained muted compared to prior recoveries, the NFIB said.

[expat_panama]

...improved sentiment comes amid news of higher wages...

This may seem controversial w/ folks like Rush saying wages are down and threads like Shock: Americans’ Wages Dropping Fast in 2016

 

What we're working with is the fact that notwithstanding all the political rhetoric there are still actual payrolls and bank records that show real wages came up big time and are in fact high even while they're off a tad from the peak reported earlier this year.  Here're how the optimism numbers have been tracking:

 

OK, so now we'll probably start hearing from the party faithful insisting that America's a hellhole and everyone's starving.   Fine.  People can belive what they want.  In the meantime things are what they are; we're better off if we keep adjust our belief systems accordingly, and let's also remember that we actually prefer good things for America.

[expat_panama]

A merry morning everyone!\

Stock prices were flat/off yesterday in weaker trade while gold/silver (now at $1,345.47/$20.26) also continue coasting. 

This may change today, the futures heat map's got metals jumping +1.92% and stock indexes going soft at -0.31%.

Maybe today's claims numbers will add to the mix:

8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag.
8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil
10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories

Future FR threads:

• Veronique de Rugy: Trump And Clinton Learn The Wrong Lessons From Detroit's Demise

• The Bitter Lesson From Seattle's Minimum Wage Hike

• Will Predatory IRS Finally Be Brought To Justice?

• Stocks Hesitate Again Near All-Time Peaks, Fall Mildly In Lower Turnover

• Walter E. Williams: The Decline Of Civility In America

• Obama's Regulatory Onslaught Totals $743 Billion, And Counting

[Candor7]

Pizmo,ow, abacadabra.

Your wages are not low, the economy is good.

Things are looking up!/S

Vote for Hillary?

*************************************************

The unmitigated gall of people like Graham is actually astounding. ( Look at real GDP, and real unemployment figures)

Does Graham think that the unwashed masses of America are this gullible?

For two shakes of the donkeys tail we should kick the livin’ daylights out of Graham and all those idiots like him. Wall Street is in like Flynn for health-challenged Hilolita, and any person with an ounce of sense understands that Trump is the person to vote for, because the tax field of play is about to get a lot more level, which Wall Street and the Grahams of the world do not like even for a moment.

Thus all a sudden we have all this spontaneous unbridled optimism about the economy? The economy is f*cked royally by a bunch of shills that include Obama,Clinton, and Arab Oil who have all worked to make sure that America does not use its energy, natural and labor resources.

Screw Graham and the horse he rode in on.He should quit his day job and become a coal miner in Virginia.Then maybe his tune would change.

ITS TRUMP!

[Candor7]

Pizmo,ow, abacadabra.

Your wages are not low, the economy is good.

Things are looking up!/S

Vote for Hillary?

*************************************************

The unmitigated gall of people like Graham is actually astounding. ( Look at real GDP, and real unemployment figures)

Does Graham think that the unwashed masses of America are this gullible?

For two shakes of the donkeys tail we should kick the livin’ daylights out of Graham and all those idiots like him. Wall Street is in like Flynn for health-challenged Hilolita, and any person with an ounce of sense understands that Trump is the person to vote for, because the tax field of play is about to get a lot more level, which Wall Street and the Grahams of the world do not like even for a moment.

Thus all a sudden we have all this spontaneous unbridled optimism about the economy? The economy is f*cked royally by a bunch of shills that include Obama,Clinton, and Arab Oil who have all worked to make sure that America does not use its energy, natural and labor resources.

Screw Graham and the horse he rode in on.He should quit his day job and become a coal miner in Virginia.Then maybe his tune would change.

ITS TRUMP!

[1rudeboy]

Wonderful amount of assumptions there, cowboy. Most notable: you don’t think Wall Street would like to see a capital gains tax reduction? Jeepers.

[Jack Hammer]

More bollocks from the hillary people.

The economy quite plainly sucks.

[1rudeboy]

Darn. Perhaps you should stick to ZeroHedge for your econ news.

[CincyRichieRich]

I read ZH also.
IBD poll doesn’t realize any positive attitudes stem from folks looking past 0bama to trump, not hitlery.

[Jack Hammer]

I stick to what I can see with my own eyes.

[Candor7]

Wall street wants one thing, controllable politicians like Clinton.

And if they do not have that, all the capital gains reductions in the world do not matter.

Capital Gains reductions matter to businesses and the American people.

Do you not really have any idea about the nature of the relationship between the Clinton Fundation, pay for play and Hilary Clinton. Have you not read Jonah Greenberg’s book “Liberal FAscism?”

The coinage is not capital gains, the coinage is power over politicians, a power which belongs to the People, not to Wall Street and pay for play, nor should the nationalist socialists like Obama and Clinton be allowed to use Wall street to conquer.

Period.

[major-pelham]

When there are 100 million Americans not working, when 1 in 5 households do not have an employed person living in it, this analysis is drivel. These kinds of outlooks remind me of the lefty business magazines Fortune or Businessweek. All is well, you’re just too stupid to know it.

[1rudeboy]

And that appears to be the problem. Your personal situation is just that . . . .

[wyowolf]

To be honest, our household income has never been higher. I would never have thought we could make so much money. Of course the cost of living keeps rising, but we literally make double what we made 10 yrs ago. We both work I work a blue collar job and she is in Finance...

[cp124]

Federal data released Aug. 9 shows that Americans’ wages are dropping again, seven years after President Barack Obama declared the economy had recovered from the property-bubble — and three months before the 2016 election.
The dramatic drop was buried in an Aug. 9 report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which said that officials have radically revised their prior claim that wages grew 4.2 percent in the first quarter, from January to March.

“Real hourly compensation decreased 0.4 percent after revision, rather than the previously-published increase of 4.2 percent,” the BLS admitted. Compensation also fell another 1.4 percent in the second quarter, from April to June, the BLS admitted in the same report. That’s 2 percent drop in wages since December.

[1rudeboy]

Ok, Wall Street is smart enough to play Hillary, but not smart enough to play Donald. Because Trump.

[cp124]

Finance=Federal Reserve created bubble.

[Jack Hammer]

No... I have eyes and I can read and I have friends and I can understand what they say.

Anyone who maintains the economy is good just isn’t paying attention.

[1rudeboy]

I’m sorry for you, honestly. It’s sucks to live in an economically-halted area. I live near Detroit, myself. Things are picking up here.

[wyowolf]

When I say Finance, that is my blue collar word for anything dealing with money... she basically manages the budget for the IT dept of a large company....

[Jack Hammer]

Yes, but you see, the point is precisely that “picking up” is not quite the same as good.

The economy may very well be “picking up” and still be lousy.