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To: TigerLikesRooster; AmericanInTokyo; caww; gandalftb

Lankov:
Regime collapse is likely to result in massive turmoil, followed by either the establishment of a pro-Chinese puppet regime (seen by the North Korean elite as the preferable option) or the absorption of North Korea by the South Korean state.

The second option, which currently appears to be significantly more plausible, will be a disaster for everybody who is somebody in North Korea nowadays. These people will have little, if any, chance of staying in power.

Objectively, they have no chance of competing with the South Korean carpetbaggers, even if they are given somewhat privileged treatment in the post-unification country (an unlikely scenario). The loyal soldiers of the Kim family simply know too little about how the modern world and economy operates.

At the end of the day, all this means that, compared to the elites in other countries in similar situations, the North Korean elite is likely to remain remarkably loyal to the current government – no matter what. They do not want to rock a boat they cannot leave themselves. A coup, even a successful coup, has a high chance of provoking instability which would quickly result in regime collapse and the absorption of the poor North by the rich South.

https://www.nknews.org/2017/08/why-sanctioning-north-koreas-elites-wont-bring-down-kim-jong-un/


48 posted on 09/03/2017 5:06:37 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: AdmSmith
People are all talking about the problem as if we could still find some "reasonable" solution. The only thing we have is to jack up the price so high that NK elites feel that ditching Kim is better than imminent ruin(or death.) Same for China. Either rein on Kim or face full economic retaliation. We simply cannot do this while keeping everybody's apple cart safe and sound.

We need to put them in a rock and a real hard place. Forcing NK elites to bail out with their stashed money.

Actually I had enough of sorry pundits at NK News run by measly cowards who were responsible for appeasement which led to the current disaster.

61 posted on 09/03/2017 6:15:17 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (dead parakeet + lost fishing gear = freep all day)
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