[leaymane]

Then again, why should be trust pollsters after the 2016 election?

[rightwingcrazy]

The voters in this poll are clearly failing to heed Fox’s generic ballot poll. How confusing.

[vette6387]

Alexandra is concerned?

[HokieMom]

We’re always skeptical of polls, of course. The earlier polls that had the Dem Northam ahead seemed to all be ‘registered voters’. This poll is ‘likely voters.’ In my experience, Republicans always poll higher when it’s ‘likely voters.’

[MountainWalker]

I’m in the soviet epicenter of VA and kind of believe it.

I thought McAuliffe would win the way he blanketed the airwaves with womyn-themed scaremongering, and he won a pretty narrow victory over Cuccinelli, a conservative firebrand.

Gillespie, for better or worse, is your quintessential generic Republican. He doesn’t scare NOVA leftists and has the GOP brass ($$$) firmly behind him. I get mail from him almost every day.

Polling has been pretty terrible in VA, but Trump, Cuccinelli and Gillespie (vs Warner) have been out-performing their polling numbers by 4-5 points on election day, albeit in losing efforts. If he’s ahead in some or most polls going into election day, he probably wins in a low-turnout affair.

[pfony1]

Let’s not get cocky.

Everyone knows that the Dems in VA still have some dirty tricks to play...

[HokieMom]

The Dem's latest mailer:

Virginia GOP (RPV)‏Verified account @VA_GOP Oct 25

RPV Chairman @JohnWhitbeck: Northam Hate Mailer Goes Too Far #VAGov

— Can Ed Gillespie expect an apology from Ralph Northam on Nov. 8? —

– Even media have noted that the hit reeks of desperation-

RPV Chairman John Whitbeck issued the following statement:

“Ralph Northam’s latest mailer is the perfect example of what’s wrong with politics. Long after Ed Gillespie called out the barbaric, ignorant racists who invaded Charlottesville, Ralph Northam and his team are attempting to smear a good man with their reprehensible hate. In reality, Ed Gillespie was widely praised for his response to Charlottesville. Even reporters have noticed the reek of desperation from this attack.” “The Washington Post profile of Ralph should have given us a hint that this was coming:

‘He ran hard, even ugly. He lambasted his opponent for suggesting that mental illness was a punishment from God, a claim some said stretched Rerras’s words. The local newspaper found that other claims were exaggerations or just plain wrong. Northam later apologized for some tactics.’

“Can Ed Gillespie expect an apology call from Ralph Northam on November 8th?”

Background:

Roanoke Times Editorial Board:

“Gillespie himself has said and done exactly the right things here. Vote against Gillespie because of his views on tax policy, if you want, but don’t vote against him because of anything related to Charlottesville. He and Northam are on the same side here.” (Roanoke Times, 8/18/17)

RPV News

[cgbg]

I have been looking around the web for numbers on this, but it looks like turnout for an odd year governor’s race runs about twenty percent below a presidential year.

So let’s say there was 60% turnout for the Presidential race in 2016—then there would be 40% turnout for this year’s governor’s race.

That means one third of the people who voted in 2016 won’t be voting in 2017. One third. Think about that. They probably won’t admit it to pollsters either.

How can you get an accurate poll when as many as a third of the people you talk to start by lying to you as to whether they are going to vote.

[Haiku Guy]

All polling more than a week or two before any election is BS.

The only purpose of such polling is to influence public opinion, and the numbers will be whatever the numbers need to be to have the desired effect.

But once the election gets close, pollsters have to protect themselves by reporting the actual numbers. That is why Gillespie is suddenly ahead.

The writing is on the wall. Gillespie is going to mop the floor with Northam in two weeks.

You know what... Guadagno is going to do the same thing in New Jersey.