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How Trump Wins Reelection
The New Republic ^
| February 26th, 2018
| By Graham Vyse
Posted on 02/27/2018 1:59:05 PM PST by Mariner
To many political observers over the past year, the prospect of President Donald Trumps reelection looked doubtful at best. Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon reportedly gave Trump a 30 percent chance of finishing his term.
These predictions were understandable. In 2017, it seemed, every day brought another Trump scandal, a bombshell in the Russia story, a brawl in the White House, or a diplomatic crisis, which explains why Trumps approval rating last year was a historic low for a presidents first year in office. By years end, Democrats were anticipating a sweeping victory in this years midterm elections, with the opportunity to take back the House and perhaps even the Senate, and an enormous field of candidates was unofficially lining up for the partys 2020 primary.
But recent data should trouble them. Internal polling by the Democratic group Priorities USA showed the presidents approval rating had climbed to 44 percent in early February, which mirrors Trumps improving position in public polls. Gallup finds a narrow majority of Americans support his handling of the economy, and the new Republican tax law is getting more popular.
I think people just kind of assume hes a goner, FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver told me recently, but look, hes now more in a range where presidents have recovered to win reelection. His approval rating is up to 41 or 42 percent in our tracking. That verges on being a normal number that resembles what happened to Reagan or Clinton or Obama in their second years. (Silver noted over the weekend that Trump dipped to 39 percent in their tracking.) As Jim Messina, who managed President Barack Obamas reelection campaign in 2012, warned earlier this month, Donald Trump can absolutely be reelected.
(Excerpt) Read more at newrepublic.com ...
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2020; 2020election; buildthefence; daca; dreamact; dreamers; election2018; election2020; funnystuff; incometaxes; taxcutsandjobsact; taxreform; tcja; trump
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This from the very heart and bastion of the Progressive Left. In fact this magazine started in 1914 at the birth of Progressivism. And has led the way since.
How fortuitous this article was published the day before Trump announces he's running in 2020.
1
posted on
02/27/2018 1:59:05 PM PST
by
Mariner
To: Mariner
“We thought you were dead!”
“I was, but I got better.”
2
posted on
02/27/2018 2:05:12 PM PST
by
sparklite2
(See more at Sparklite Times)
To: Mariner
Nate Silver was burned so badly in 2016 he is afraid of his own shadow.
He should stick to animal entrails to improve his track record.
3
posted on
02/27/2018 2:06:26 PM PST
by
cgbg
(Hidden behind the social justice warrior mask is corruption and sexual deviance.)
To: Mariner
[every day brought another FAKE LIBERAL LIE “scandal”]
There. Fixed it.
4
posted on
02/27/2018 2:07:46 PM PST
by
SaveFerris
(Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
To: Mariner
Trump has surpassed being simply a mere president.
Trump hss become the embodiment of America. He is the American revolution im human form, his very life is the most inspirational example of the American dream.
He has connected himself to the very psyche of the nation he leads in a way only a handful of Leaders in history have done. Think Napoleon Caesar after the defeat of Pompey, Alexander after the conquest of Persia.
Trump is all of us, and all of us are Trump.
5
posted on
02/27/2018 2:09:47 PM PST
by
WashingtonFire
(President Trump - it's like having your dad as President)
To: cgbg
No. Nate Silver was burned IN 2010 right after the midterms which he got wrong, and every midterm since. He was the darling of the left after he called it for obama. He’s not very good at midterm elections and congressional/senate ones either. He’s just throwing darts at a dartboard..
6
posted on
02/27/2018 2:13:05 PM PST
by
max americana
(Fired libtard employees 9 consecutive times at every election since 08'. I hope all liberals die.)
To: WashingtonFire
“He has connected himself to the very psyche of the nation he leads in a way only a handful of Leaders in history have done. “
Agree.
7
posted on
02/27/2018 2:13:05 PM PST
by
Mariner
(War Criminal #18)
To: Mariner
He was never in trouble. The Left has just listened to itself bloviate into its own echo chambers for too long.
To: max americana
He was the darling of the left after he called it for obama. And he didn't get that right either. Obama and the democrats stole FL and OH. But that's ok...obama got us TRUMP.
9
posted on
02/27/2018 2:17:45 PM PST
by
pgkdan
(The Silent Majority STILL Stands With TRUMP!)
To: Mariner
He should advocate for the immediate retroactive quadrupling of the standard deduction.
To: Mariner
The only person who can beat Trump, is and always was Trump.
He’ll win solid re-election.
Asking Nate Silver anything about Politics is silly, he’s a pundit playing a statistician. I believe he put Trumps odds of winning in the teens or lower last election.
When it comes to politics he’s a complete hack and shill for the left, a pundit pretending he’s got a science behind his left wing advocacy.
To: Mariner
He will be reelected, especially if he’s able to keep muzzies from infiltrating into the country.
12
posted on
02/27/2018 2:23:52 PM PST
by
I want the USA back
(Free Republic keeps me from going insane in a world that has chosen insanity over reason.)
To: WashingtonFire
You BETCHA!
PDJT = MAGA
13
posted on
02/27/2018 2:31:43 PM PST
by
V K Lee
(Anyone who thinks my story is anywhere near over is sadly mistaken. - Donald J. Trump)
To: SaveFerris; Liz; GOPJ; NFHale; Impy; DoughtyOne
14
posted on
02/27/2018 2:35:13 PM PST
by
ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
(Mozart tells you what it's like to be human. Bach tells you what it's like to be the universe)
To: Mariner
Trump will be re-elected in a landslide.
15
posted on
02/27/2018 2:35:27 PM PST
by
Oldeconomybuyer
(The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
To: Mariner
16
posted on
02/27/2018 2:43:14 PM PST
by
yoe
To: Mariner
17
posted on
02/27/2018 3:12:38 PM PST
by
TigersEye
(13 Russian Facebook trolls ... and a Siberian partridge in a Russian Olive tree.)
To: Mariner
In 2017, it seemed, every day brought another Trump scandal, a bombshell in the Russia story, a brawl in the White House, or a diplomatic crisis, which explains why Trumps approval rating last year was a historic low for a presidents first year in office.That's the trope and they are sticking with it. All of that was ginned up or faked by the opposition, then abetted by the lying "press" which amplified it beyond all sensible limits. With a sane opposition party and a press serious about its responsibilities, it would have looked like any other first year of a new administration. They got seriously smeared by the losers and gullible people bought into it.
To: WashingtonFire
To: Mariner
Don't count on it !
Watch the LIVE VOTE RETURNS.
IF THE LIVE VOTE COUNT TOTALS START GOING
DOWN, YOU KNOW
"FRACTION MAGIC" IS BEING USED !
DemocRATS will NEVER leave elections in the hands of the voters again, after Trump won !
STEALING ELECTIONS WITH COMPUTERS and
Technology Cybercrimes, watch Bloomberg's
Digital Defense November 3, 2016 (19:40).
To better understand
"THE MASTER KEY" to stealing elections with computers, watch:
I'LL
NEVER TRUST ANOTHER COMPUTER COUNTED ELECTION AGAIN !
Things have changed!
Bennie Smith, a Memphis computer programmer, discovered HOW this is done through a
" ... a GEMS tabulatorfor Global Election Management Systemwhich is a personal computer installed with Diebold software that sits in a windowless room in the countys election headquarters.
The tabulator is the brains of the system.
It monitors the voting machines, sorts out which machines have delivered data and which havent, and tallies the results.
As voting machines check in and their votes are included in the official count, each machines status turns green on the GEMS master panel.
A red light means the upload has failed.
At the end of Memphiss election night in October 2015, there was no indication from the technician running Shelby Countys GEMS tabulator that any voting machine hadnt checked in or that any votes had gone missing, according to election commission e-mails obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek.
Yet as county technicians followed up on the evidence from Smiths poll-tape photo, they discovered more votes that never made it into the election night count, all from precincts with large concentrations of black voters. ... "
Diebold Election Systems changed its name in 2006 to
Premier Election Solutions.
Bloomberg's article titled
How to Protect Against Election Day Hacking gives more proof of this by Memphis computer programmer Bennie Smith.
"... The method Smith used to catch the problem should be a playbook for any candidate, party or concerned citizen worried about the accurate tallying of their votes:Smith snapped some pictures of printed voting tallies (known as poll tapes) at a high-turnout polling location and then compared the results there to the electronic tabulations.
This is a very good, if labor-intensive, way to check to ensure that votes are being counted correctly.
Smith has created a proof-of-concept program called Fraction Magic, showing how corrupt officials could tamper with GEMS to manipulate election outcomes.
20
posted on
02/27/2018 3:29:40 PM PST
by
Yosemitest
(It's SIMPLE ! ... Fight, ... or Die !)
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