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How Trump Wins Reelection
The New Republic ^ | February 26th, 2018 | By Graham Vyse

Posted on 02/27/2018 1:59:05 PM PST by Mariner

To many political observers over the past year, the prospect of President Donald Trump’s reelection looked doubtful at best. Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon reportedly gave Trump a 30 percent chance of finishing his term.

These predictions were understandable. In 2017, it seemed, every day brought another Trump scandal, a bombshell in the Russia story, a brawl in the White House, or a diplomatic crisis, which explains why Trump’s approval rating last year was a historic low for a president’s first year in office. By year’s end, Democrats were anticipating a sweeping victory in this year’s midterm elections, with the opportunity to take back the House and perhaps even the Senate, and an enormous field of candidates was unofficially lining up for the party’s 2020 primary.

But recent data should trouble them. Internal polling by the Democratic group Priorities USA showed the president’s approval rating had climbed to 44 percent in early February, which “mirrors Trump’s improving position in public polls.” Gallup finds a narrow majority of Americans support his handling of the economy, and the new Republican tax law is getting more popular.

“I think people just kind of assume he’s a goner,” FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver told me recently, “but look, he’s now more in a range where presidents have recovered to win reelection. His approval rating is up to 41 or 42 percent in our tracking. That verges on being a normal number that resembles what happened to Reagan or Clinton or Obama in their second years.” (Silver noted over the weekend that Trump dipped to 39 percent in their tracking.) As Jim Messina, who managed President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign in 2012, warned earlier this month, “Donald Trump can absolutely be reelected.”

(Excerpt) Read more at newrepublic.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2020; 2020election; buildthefence; daca; dreamact; dreamers; election2018; election2020; funnystuff; incometaxes; taxcutsandjobsact; taxreform; tcja; trump
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To: Mariner

about 50% of the article is complete nonsense, e.g., Sabato saying trump supporters are a “cult” and that’s never happened before, completely ignoring the slobbering adulation of obama supporters and the leftist fake stream media.

and then there’s all the nonsense of a “STRONG” GOP challenge to Trump during the next primary, laughably citing Kasich of all people as being that “strong” man.

there’s much more similar stupidity and ignorance, but not worth the time to write about ...


21 posted on 02/27/2018 3:30:01 PM PST by catnipman ( Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Mariner

The tough part will be maintaining a hold on the states he won that Hillary was “supposed” to win. The Demonrat will actually campaign in them this time.


22 posted on 02/27/2018 3:31:14 PM PST by Rastus
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To: Mariner

He can recover? Shiyiiiiiiiit. It’s the Dimocrats who can recover, but probably won’t due to their own narcicism, bordering on autism. Trump will skate to reelection. The Dems will crash and burn this year and again in 2020. I only hope they nominate John Kerry and Joe Biden, not necessarily in that order. Crazy Bernie would be good, too. Give him a prominent role in the Biden/Kerry campaign. Have all the judges in the 9th Circus dressed as clowns, capering at the convention.


23 posted on 02/27/2018 3:51:35 PM PST by Eleutheria5 (“If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.)
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To: Mariner

He just needs to stay the course. Just keep on the same trajectory.


24 posted on 02/27/2018 4:20:00 PM PST by Crucial
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To: Crucial

And...do what he promised to do.


25 posted on 02/27/2018 4:22:39 PM PST by hoagy62 (America Supreme!)
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To: Eleutheria5

“Kerry and Joe Biden, not necessarily in that order”

Personally, I pine for Liz Warren and Kamala Harris. With Liz at the top.

But Kerry and Biden will do in a pinch:)


26 posted on 02/27/2018 5:14:51 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
He was never in trouble. The Left has just listened to itself bloviate into its own echo chambers for too long.

Or they just read the opinion polls.

Maybe Trump will coast to reelection victory.

But that could mean proving all the polls wrong again.

27 posted on 02/27/2018 5:25:48 PM PST by x
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To: HamiltonJay

Well said!


28 posted on 02/27/2018 8:24:21 PM PST by avenir ("But as for you, teach what accords with sound doctrine."--Paul to Titus)
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To: Mariner
The article ends with: Trende told me that “if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would lose,” but warned against overconfidence: “I kind of feel like I’ve seen this movie before.”

What credible candidate could the Democrats put up against Trump tomorrow?

29 posted on 02/27/2018 10:04:34 PM PST by AZLiberty ("If we believe in absurdities, we commit atrocities." -- Voltaire)
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To: AZLiberty

What credible candidate could the Democrats put up against Trump tomorrow?

The could run a dog- it is who counts the votes- they will cheat and manufacture, the walking dead will be at the polls. I would not be surprised if the total number of votes nation wide exceeds 150% of the voting age citizens


30 posted on 02/27/2018 10:15:08 PM PST by Nailbiter
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To: Mariner

Liz and Pelosi! The dementia duo!


31 posted on 02/27/2018 11:02:21 PM PST by Eleutheria5 (“If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.)
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To: Mariner

Just remember how accurate those polls were in 2016 and that nothing has happened since then that should instill any confidence that their polling science has improved any.

They are still more agenda-driven than science-driven.


32 posted on 02/28/2018 5:40:10 AM PST by OrangeHoof (Donald Trump: Doing the work American politicians just won't do.)
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To: OrangeHoof
This is what happens with only a 2% shift in the 2016 vote:

Final electoral vote total = 328 to 210

33 posted on 02/28/2018 5:18:42 PM PST by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: Mariner

BTTT


34 posted on 05/06/2018 9:05:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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Donald TRUMP's REELECTION numbers mirror those of Barack Obama & Bill Clinton =P

35 posted on 05/07/2018 1:56:26 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: WashingtonFire

It certainly resonates with ALL working Americans when they see their new net paychecks.

Where I live, we are in the path of a building boom. Realtor told me last week that investors from as far away as NEW YORK are buying up properties in this rural valley in N Nevada.


36 posted on 05/07/2018 7:26:19 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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