Posted on 03/15/2018 5:19:57 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
It’s a busy time of year, so we’ll keep this relatively short. But I wanted to echo and underscore a point made by FiveThirtyEight contributor Nathaniel Rakich in his article on Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — Democrat Conor Lamb is the apparent winner1 in a district that President Trump won by 20 percentage points — is because it came on reasonably high turnout, the sort of turnout one might expect in this year’s midterms.
As of early Wednesday morning, about 228,000 votes had been counted in the special election. That equals 62 percent of the 370,000 votes cast for the presidential candidates in the district in November 2016, according to data from Daily Kos Elections. That’s right in line with midterm turnout, which is typically 60 percent to 70 percent as high as turnout in presidential years.
Turnout was similarly high in December’s special Senate election in Alabama — 64 percent of presidential-year turnout in the state. That was also an impressive win for Democrats, albeit one with more mitigating circumstances.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Nate silver? He would be better off predicting horse races.
It will be if Republicans don’t get off their fat-asses and VOTE!!
Republicans will pay a price for not rolling back Obamacare.
A lot of people here like to live in a dream world. Fact is many republicans have no enthusiasm for the Republican Congress. They will stay home, even though the result will be catastrophic.
A lot of people who aren’t republicans usually, voted for Trump.
Can’t imagine that the press doesn’t even mention that.
More like a tsunami of Demoncrat election and voter fraud.
The unrelenting pounding on people who vote Republican will take its toll. But I’m still hoping it pisses off more people to get out and vote against ‘rats this fall, and that ridicule-fatigue invigorates us.
Nate how did that Hillary projection work out for ya again!
The Slimes has no shame and neither does gay lefty Nate .
Democrats running as conservatives like 2006. Beware.
Depends. How many candidates can you find Democrats who will run as fake Republicans stating they “ will work with President Trump” support the 2nd Amendment and oppose Nancy Pelosie?
There is large enthusiasm gap for the GOP Congress. Trump voters are loyal to Trump, not the GOP-E. When Trump shows up he turned a 7 point gap into a tie
Which is why Sham Lamb had to run as a faux DINO.
If the Republicans in Congress had built the wall, which is chump change, they’d have been in the majority for the next 100 years. The stupid Greedy Oldfart Party (GOP) is going down.
When I think “Trump” I don’t think “republican”.
When I think “republican” I do think “McCain, Graham, ‘repeal and replace’, big spenders, omnicrap budgets”.
Tax cuts were great. But republicans have a big image problem (in my mind). Liberals can be scared into voting for the lesser of two evils. Maybe republican voters are more picky as republican politicians try to be the lesser evil rather than a good.
Look, he isn’t a genius, but he can state the obvious.
Alabama— Doug Jones got something like 90% of Hitlery’s vote total. Roy Moore got something around 70% of Trump’s.
IOW, Demon Rat voters showed up. Republicans didn’t.
Suburban white Republicans are flipping over to voting for Dems. It’s happening over and over.
So a Democrat winning an election, by running as a Conservative signals a blue wave? Yeah ok, Nate. How’d that Hillary prediction work out for you?
Prove this comment.
Why would a Gop vote Dem .
The difference is, the dems thirst for victory and have their goal of destroying Trump by all means necessary. First order of business in the next Congress will be drafting up impeachment orders.
The words you speak are true.
Today's GOP Congress is perhaps the most cowardly gaggle of dickless eunuchs that has ever sullied Capitol Hill. It is really unbelievable, their total abdication of leadership in the face of such a historic opportunity to reverse decades of entrenched liberalism.
So, yeah, there's a bit of an enthusiasm gap.
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