Commentary: Can the GOP keep the House in November?

See BS News ^ | 05/17/2018 | Michael Graham

[Impy]

Some freepers tend to think that when Republicans don’t act how they want that they must “want to lose” but that’s a ridiculous conclusion.

[Angels27]

It’s going to be very tough for the GOP to hold the House. But anything can happen.

[Impy]

Those turds didn’t mess with the state leg lines too, did they?

[Impy]

GOP Gain in the Senate and lose seats in but keep the House majority is what I figured from the beginning.

[M Kehoe]

Yes.

5.56mm

[Conserv]

Like in 2016, I think we easily keep the House.

[momincombatboots]

Or the prez goes for more gun control.

[fieldmarshaldj]

No.

[SmokingJoe]

If anything is a lead-pipe cinch in American politics, it's that the party out of power in Washington, DC always cleans up in the midterm elections—particularly the first midterm

Midterms 2002 says “Hello”:

"The 2002 United States elections were held on November 5, in the middle of Republican President George W. Bush's first term. Unusual in midterm elections, the incumbent president's party gained seats in both chambers of the United States Congress. The Republicans picked up net gains of 2 Senate seats and 8 House seats.[1]"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2002

[SpeedyInTexas]

“If the republicans keep the house and senate and maybe even increase it the media will have a complete breakdown. It may be enough of a shock to make them pull back on the nasty, crude Trump bashing”

They will double down if GOP keeps the House/Senate, trying to defeat Trump in 2020. When he wins re-election, they will go into mourning. After the mourning period, they will proclaim him to be a lame duck and turn their fiery to Pence to stop him in 2024.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Not in the House, but they have more than enough in the Senate.
Rubio’s Gang of Amnesty bill got 68 votes.

[upchuck]

Pardon my edit...

With Trump's weak approval ratings and the history of off-year partisan backlash, "Speaker Nancy Pelosi" is a done deal.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

The recent reports of the generic congressional ballot falling under 5 percent could signal the death knell for Dems' chances if the trend keeps up. In 2012, the Democrats won the overall national congressional vote by 1.2 percent but the Republicans won a House majority by 17 seats. So the Dems just being ahead in a generic ballot test really won't do it, and a very low single digit showing doesn't strike me as enough.

I think, by October, it will be possible-—not easy, given PA’s redistricting stealing four seats-—for the GOP to actually gain one or two.

I'm a bit pessimistic on that because GOP incumbents in too many close (Hillary-won or Trump single-digit) suburban districts bailed out, which is going to make it a b*tch to keep almost all of them. I think we might be able to pull it off if going into the election we were in strong shape in open Dem-held seats like New Hampshire's 1st district, or if we were poised to sweep Minnesota's 1st and 8th and maybe even knock off Colin Petersen in the 7th (all strong Trump districts in 2016). Those could compensate for some of the suburban discontent with Trump that has reared its head in some of these recent elections.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

“Weak” approval rating my ass.

Also, the GOP picked up seats during the midterms in George W.’s first term (NOT his second of course, which was a disaster).

The president will criss-cross the country this Summer and Fall campaigning for GOP candidates.

[spintreebob]

This off year election is likely to be low turnout. The candidate/organization that has an effective ground game to win a purple district has the edge in that district.

The Democrats had a good ground game in AL, VA, PA. To beat them, the Republicans need to build the ground game and get voters to the polls.... VA is the classic example of where conservatives are all talk and no doing.

[jmaroneps37]

Ha ha ha ha go away ash holes.

[Repeal The 17th]

From the article:
“If anything is a lead-pipe cinch in American politics,
it’s that the party out of power in Washington, DC
always cleans up in the midterm elections.”
- -
That is not true.
This is an example of “Fake News”.

[trebb]

With Trump's weak approval ratings.....

Stopped right there - they obviously haven't been paying attention to the fact that some polls, despite their wishes, can't keep Trump under 50%.

[LS]

Reuters today had Rs now UP about 2 in the generic.

Can’t remember the last time this happened.