I’ll point out three significant factors:
1. Using the May unemployment numbers....you have 11 states which are 3.0-percent or LESS. Alaska is the only state with a rate higher than 5.8-percent (sitting at 7.2 percent).
2. GDP predictions so far for 2018? Near 5-percent. Go back and see when that last occured.
3. Go look for any shipping company that is extremely worried over the China-trade talk. So far, no one is nervous, and they would be the first to get all fired up.
I think we were long conditioned by experts on TV to think something, and after November 2016....we’ve all come to realize the experts don’t know much about what they talk about.
All good points. Add to them:
1. Can’t find enough truck drivers, goods are moving and probably more need to be moved.
2. Railroads are offering bounties for engineers and other labor, freight is moving
3. I read the other day, in support of your note on shipping, that shipping concerns are not the least bit concerned.
Trump has said he is planning to level the playing field to allow even competition by combatting punitive tariffs on our goods. A benefit of that may be that we make more things at home because it makes sense to do so. He never said he is ending trade when it makes sense. Things may cost more or some may make lower profits but choice should not be impacted by tariffs that are either protective or punitive as they are now and that includes our own.
This may take some time though. One does not become fat over night nor does one shed pounds to correct the wrong quickly. Shock therapy seldom works or has lasting impact.
The market reaction to this, in spite of the various conditions in their sine waves, as General Blather points out, concerns me though. I know the market hates uncertainty but it is over reacting to the purported trade war and under reacting to the growing economy. I am also starting to be concerned about inflation.
I still do not believe that Trump is a Smoot Hawley type disaster.