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Dust Bowl Economics: Trump wants taxpayers to bail out farmers hurt by his trade war.
Wall Street Journal ^ | July 11, 2018

Posted on 07/12/2018 4:59:13 AM PDT by reaganaut1

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To: PGR88
America grows nowhere near enough to meet the nation’s demand for fruits and vegetables - very labor intensive products.

I think that's more about growing conditions and seasonality than labor.

America used to grow more than enough to meet the nation's demand for most of these ... when fruits and vegetables were only available in the supermarket when they were "in season." Imports made it commonplace for fruits and vegetables to be available at pretty uniform prices for the entire year. Imports also give us access to agricultural products that are difficult to grow here without heavily mechanized, energy-intensive operations (bananas, coffee, etc.).

101 posted on 07/12/2018 7:03:14 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("I saw a werewolf drinking a pina colada at Trader Vic's.")
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To: mplc51

It cost farmers $450 and acre to plant corn
200 bushels an acre yield @ 3.00 per to sell

Now you have rent or mortgage payment

Real Math

Lets make it real easy math

$450.00 and acre for Fertilizer, herbicide, seed, fuel, insurance, labor, repairs.

$100 and acre for equipment and building loans

$250 an acre for rent for the land

$750 an acre cost of production.

200 bushels of corn times $3.25 per bushel equals $650 and acre

$650
-$750


-$100 X 1000 acres

-$100,000

How many of you would like to work all year for the privilege of owing the bank 100K???? at the end of it all


102 posted on 07/12/2018 7:05:26 AM PDT by BobinIL
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To: Alberta's Child

Your detail/sequence of probable events is Randian, i.e. out Atlas Shrugged. Well done, FRiend. It’s a shame that certain posters only know how to respond with vitriol and personal attacks.


103 posted on 07/12/2018 7:05:57 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (Remember the Alamo! Remember Goliad! Remember Gonzales! Come and Take It!)
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To: Night Hides Not

Thank you! :)


104 posted on 07/12/2018 7:13:18 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("I saw a werewolf drinking a pina colada at Trader Vic's.")
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To: Augie
...farmers who raise a few pigs on the back 40?

That's a relatively tiny niche market. More than half of all hogs are raised on contract, or by corporations and partnerships. Of hogs raised by 'family' or 'individual' farms, the overwhelming majority are very commercial operations.

Even heirloom and pasture-raisedhogs are frequently a sideline for a more commercial operation.

So, any 'bailout' of pig farmers (a stupid idea to start with) is going to overwhelmingly go to large commercial operators.

105 posted on 07/12/2018 7:15:36 AM PDT by jjotto (Nex eek, BOOM! for sure!)
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To: rb22982
Not for $6-8/hr or less. At $15-$20 though, you could get legit labor.

Not necessarily.

We would be classified as a "small farm" and have paid seasonal labor $15 an hr for the past 3 years, $13 before that. No way possible to pay unskilled labor $20 and hr. and still make a profit. Every year it's increasingly difficult to find workers, much less reliable ones. We hear the same story from all the producers. Anybody that wants a full time job, has one. The workforce that's left has all sorts of reasons for not working, I suspect just not wanting to and being able to live off of someone in the family who does work.

We hire no illegals, and have never gotten a government subsidy of any kind. The Chinese tariff on our product was 22% which has been raised to 47%. Probably a third to a half of our crop has gone to China the past few years. We await to see if that kills their market. If it does, I doubt the American consumer can/will take up the slack. If a glut develops and prices fall below production cost then it'll be a "lost" year.

That said....I support what the President is doing. Something had to be done about the trade imbalance and unfair practices.

106 posted on 07/12/2018 7:17:56 AM PDT by Texan
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To: BobinIL

Corn is $3.32 Chicago today, But you have to get it there for how much$$$$


107 posted on 07/12/2018 7:18:14 AM PDT by mplc51
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To: Drango

So should we continue to let the other countries keep F’ing us on trade?


108 posted on 07/12/2018 7:18:36 AM PDT by RWGinger (Does anyone else really)
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To: BobinIL

You are correct. current prices for corn and soybeans are at or below cost of Production

Trump is educating America on exactly why there is a 700 billion dollar trade deficit. That deficit means dollars leaving this country creating a backdrop for a huge US budget deficit.

By leveling the Tariff playing field....US farmers and industry will finally be able to sell globally at a fare price.


109 posted on 07/12/2018 7:20:19 AM PDT by blackberry1
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To: Drango

So should we continue to let the other countries keep F’ing us on trade?


110 posted on 07/12/2018 7:21:03 AM PDT by RWGinger (Does anyone else really)
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To: blackberry1

You are correct. current prices for corn and soybeans are at or below cost of Production

Trump is educating America on exactly why there is a 700 billion dollar trade deficit. That deficit means dollars leaving this country creating a backdrop for a huge US budget deficit.

By leveling the Tariff playing field....US farmers and industry will finally be able to sell globally at a fair price.


111 posted on 07/12/2018 7:21:25 AM PDT by blackberry1
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To: spacewarp

So Trump is the ultimate free trader! He wants to eliminate all trade barriers. How does that sit with all of you anti-trade Freepers? Would you accept a tariff free trading regime? What will happen to the US truck business if all tariffs are dropped?


112 posted on 07/12/2018 7:23:50 AM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: Texan
If other farms had no illegal immigrants, the price of food would be higher and you make a profit at $20/hr. Seasonal/PT employees are never as good as FT employees no matter how much you pay them. Motivation, turnover, and output are all significantly higher for FT employees than season/PT.

Whether or not you receive a direct subsidy as farmer, you indirectly benefit from food stamps.

113 posted on 07/12/2018 7:27:01 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: BobinIL

Yeah, being an exec for two companies with hundreds of locations across the country (one in 44 states, one in 28 states) that employees over 10k+ hourly workers means I have no clue. Got it.


114 posted on 07/12/2018 7:30:38 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: Beagle8U

Since NAFTA implementation, US exports of pork to Canada have continually increased, while Canada has switched to breeding and exporting feeder pigs to the US.

How should country of origin labeling treat a hog bred in Canada and raised to 50 pounds there, and then finished in the US to 250 pound slaughter weight?


115 posted on 07/12/2018 7:31:31 AM PDT by jjotto (Nex eek, BOOM! for sure!)
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To: rb22982
Yes, they will. I have worked in retail and hospitality my entire life - mostly in corporate management - and at $15-20/hr you can get legit quality labor just about everywhere but SF, LA, NYC and Boston

You're talking "Retail" type labor rb22982. Night and day different from hiring farm labor.

116 posted on 07/12/2018 7:34:42 AM PDT by Texan
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To: Alberta's Child
America used to grow more than enough to meet the nation's demand for most of these ... when fruits and vegetables were only available in the supermarket when they were "in season."

In the extreme, What you're saying then is that Americans will have to again get used to eating potatoes all winter long, and blueberries only in August. That won't happen, and also American diets have changed. Yes, seasonal availability started the trend, but for decades now US distributors and manufacturers are used to buying vegetables simply where they are cheapest. Remember storage and global transport are much better than they were 50 years ago also.

There will be no easy way for US farmers to meet US demand for things like garlic, peaches, spinach, lettuce etc. etc..

I'm not disagreeing with Trump's trade policies and most of these products are coming from more agreeable suppliers than China, such as Argentina, Peru, Chile, even Mexico. Its just a comment on my experience in Agricultural economics.

117 posted on 07/12/2018 7:37:21 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Texan
Retail and hospitality and I have many friends in the restaurant business as well. If you think the work pool is different, you are incorrect. The only real difference is 1) Retail/hospitality doesn't employ that many illegals (hospitality probably a bit more) and 2) Farm is more rural, so you have a smaller pool of hourly workers to draw from (but also less competition). Unskilled labor, which it is for both farming/retail/hospitality, under $15/hr can and will go work anywhere to make an extra $0.25, $0.50, $1.00+ hr they can
118 posted on 07/12/2018 7:38:48 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: Texan
Amend this sentence a bit

"Unskilled labor, which it is for both farming/retail/hospitality, under $15/hr can and will go work anywhere to make an extra $0.25, $0.50, $1.00+ hr they can, or switch from seasonal/PT to full time jobs

119 posted on 07/12/2018 7:40:58 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: PGR88

You still miss the point of these tariffs. They are to eliminate Chinese, etc tariffs that exist on US goods today, eliminate our ability to bring certain products even into those countries at all, and eliminate forced IP theft. The only tool Trump has to go after those, short of a shooting war, is to respond with tariffs ourselves - which should have been done 20, 30 years ago.


120 posted on 07/12/2018 7:42:55 AM PDT by rb22982
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