Skip to comments.2018: Democrats lead GOP by 12 million registered voters, 40% D, 29% R, 28% I
Posted on 07/13/2018 2:22:05 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
Democrats hold a massive voter lead in states that require party registration, a gap of 12 million that could be key to whether the party takes control of the House and Senate in the fall midterm congressional elections, according to a new analysis.
Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginias Center for Politics. The states include several with key battles over House seats such as California, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
The lead is significant, said Rhodes Cooks analysis in Center Director Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball newsletter, because in the past presidential election the majority party in 24 of the 31 states won, especially among Republican states.
In 2016, Trump won 11 of 12 majority Republican states, and took six of 19 Democratic states, said the analysis.
Of note, some of the states with registered Democrat advantages, like Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, have been functionally Republican at the presidential level for at least 15 years, said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the Crystal Ball.
That could be good news for the Republicans in the upcoming election, a sign that just being majority Democrat does not mean voters are in lock step, said the report which highlighted the growth of independent voters.
But it also noted that as the nation becomes more partisan, declaring party membership is an affirmative political stand.
With the growth in independents, many voters seem to be saying to the two major parties: a pox on both your houses, wrote Cook.
How many are illegals?
How many are dead?
How many are double-registered?
It’s the delta that’s important.
And how much of a lead was there in 2016, and does such a lead really matter?
did you know that 126 million people voted in 2016. This data is meaningless— 12 million?? what a joke.
Were American history properly taught in school this would not be the case.
Democrats register anyone with a pulse, and at times I think their lax on verification of the pulse. Their task is getting all those registered people to show up at the polls, since they only registered to shut a Democrat operative up.
Republicans register folks who seek them out to register. Generally, they can’t prevent their folks from voting, unless it’s a Bush or a McCain, at which point they go fishing instead.
Why didn’t Hillary win by 500% then? Like Strock said she should have won 100 million to one! So I guess we’ll be seeing a huge blue wave in November then...or not.
The numbers for years has been R40 D40 and I20. Where these numbers coming from? Trying to rally the troops?
This is a perfect example of one of those ‘worthless stats’........In The South it is common for people to register opposite of their actual political beliefs so that they can vote in the opposite primary for a losing candidate.............
Golly, I thought we had fifty States (not 32). And not 57? Democrat math is so confusing.
I like what the Democrats are doing to the independent voter. Many independents are conservative to begin with and the crazies on the left will drive many more “I” to the “R” column.
Why is SC not on there either which has many more republicans?
Read the first sentence of the article.
If it’s not by congressional district, it’s not really meaningful. It might be more applicable for Senate seats.
Used to be R but after 15 years of disappointment seeong R's get elected and fail to fix anything changed to I.
Suspect a large percentage of I's are like me?
well, 8 million of those are in CA, NJ,MA and NY. Big deal.
Notice most states missing like SC, AL, MS are mostly republican and not on there?
Are we not supposed to notice that?
“Democrat math is so confusing.”
You do realize we previously had an idiot pretending to be president who STATED we had 57 states. My math and history says 50. Of course I’m just a stoopid honky rightwing conservative...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.