Skip to comments.Payrolls rise 157,000 missing expectations, but overall picture still strong (Overall good report)
Posted on 08/03/2018 5:48:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA
Payroll growth turned sluggish in July after two robust months, though the unemployment rate edged lower and the overall jobs picture continued to look solid, according to Labor Department numbers released Friday.
Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 157,000 for the month, below the 190,000 expected in a survey of Reuters economists and the lowest gain since March. The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.9 percent, as expected, and is around its lowest level in nearly 50 years.
In the key wages category, average hourly earnings also met expectations, increasing 2.7 percent over the same period a year ago. The Federal Reserve is closely watching the wages component as it seeks to meet its 2 percent inflation target.
An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding jobs part-time for economic reasons, often referred to as the "real" unemployment rate, also declined, from 8.1 percent in June to 7.9 percent in July. The closely watched labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.9 percent.
The average work week declined one-tenth of a percentage point to 34.5 hours.
Though the July reading missed estimates, previous months' report were revised substantially higher. The May reading jumped from 244,000 to 268,000 while June's number increased from 213,000 originally reported up to 248,000, for a total net upward revision of 59,000 for the two months.
Average gains for the three-month period were a strong 224,000.
The numbers come amid an economy that has exhibited considerably stronger growth in the second quarter. GDP rose 4.1 for the period, and the third quarter also is expected to show gains at an above-trend pace.
For the labor market, the month saw job growth across a span of industries.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
59,000 upward revisions over the past 2 months makes it 216,000.
Yep... Also, the Hispanic unemployment rate headed further into record-low territory, now at 4.5%
It actually declined a smidgen for those in the age category 18-54 to 88.8%, down a 10th from last month, down a 10th from when the President took office and off a half percent from its high of 89.3% in April. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
I would like to see if that is mainly the 18-22 year age group. That is college age so if they are going to college, they shouldn’t be listed in the labor participation number. It should only be people that were ever IN the labor force. Maybe that is taken into account in that number? I’m not sure.
Up 170K in the private sector and down 13K in the public sector. Sounds like a good report to me. Also, I suspect that the brisk hiring in May and June is a reason why July’s number came in a bit low. They were already working.
July is always slow for jobs. Hiring Managers are all on vacation.
Why are the liberal expectations always wrong?
And manufacturing continues to tick up.
The ADP figure of 200K+ for July would lead me to believe the BLS number will be revised quite a bit higher in the coming months.
I would agree except this is for July when summer jobs would be in full swing.
“”””””””””””Also, I suspect that the brisk hiring in May and June is a reason why Julys number came in a bit low. They were already working.””””””””””””””””
This. Up here in the frozen North a ton of hiring gets done in April and May. June is big because school is out and students get jobs. By July everything is already rolling hard.
If anyone could explain in layman’s terms, why there seems to be a discrepancy between the ADP private-sector reports and the BLS reports from time to time, I would be very appreciative.
The ADP numbers this week came in higher than expectations while the BLS numbers missed.
The black unemployment rate is beginning to grow after its low a few months ago. Still down from when the President took office. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
NFIB number was more in line with ADP.
those considerations would be accounted for in the seasonal adjustments, but probably in the month of July they would be more likely IN the labor force than not in.
ADP is a private company that handles a lot of corporate payrolls, but by no means all, so they miss some regions and some types and sizes of businesses. The government number is the better (more accurate) number generally, but people watch the ADP to try to get a preview of it. Sometimes that doesn’t work well.
Just an average "Bob" but I'll take a stab at answering g your question.....
Because they're really socialist' trying to turn their ideology into the "new" capitolism?
....or maybe because words and wishes don't produce real growth?
I don't know that one is more accurate than the other - both just take samples of data and extrapolate from there. The ADP number is based on actual payroll activities for their customers. The BLS is based on phone survey results, but I don't know how large a sample. I'm 60 and have never been called, so I imagine it's not a big number each month. The BLS number also is subject to "seasonal adjustments", which attempt to smooth out the numbers through time to take into account variations that occur normally, such as summer vacation hiring slowdowns, Christmas hiring (and hiring slowdowns), etc.
I would never take one single report as gospel,but rather the trend-lines developed over multiple periods.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember job gains being revised downward consistently during the Obama administration.
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