Posted on 08/03/2018 5:48:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA
Running out of employable people.
Perhaps the higher black unemployment rate might be due to more blacks looking for jobs. I recall some economist saying unemployment can increase when MORE people are LOOKING.
When they stop looking for work (either employed OR so discouraged they quit looking) they are no longer considered “unemployed”.
Yep.. I remember that often.
Number of people age 16+ not in the labor force is near an all time high, but slightly improved from the high in May, 2018. https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/LNS15000000
That’s possible but I’m not sure how that’s determined as the rates are from those getting unemployment compensation. Someone long out of the labor force wouldn’t be getting that assistance.
And why does every positive news report involving the Trump administration carry some kind of caveat?
Today, the LIV sees this as a negative and disappointing number, as intended.
It's so tiresome (and predictable).
If this report had come out two or three years ago, the headline would be "Obama Economy Continues Its Surge."
1. They don't want/need to work.
2. They are unemployable, not unemployed.
Right on. Thank you for the explanation. So the ADP info is just another data point but the BLS numbers should be considered the authoritative superset?
Very possibly. 4% unemployment is generally considered "full employment", so the fact that we're hovering there would point to that as being true. You'll get confirmation if you start to see wages begin to rise at a faster pace than the 2.7% reported this period.
That’s the way I look at them. The ADP is “interesting”, the BLS is authoritative.
Yes it’s a “survey” but it’s a survey of 650,000 workplaces. Robust, as they say. (That’s for the non-farm payrolls number. The “unemployment rate” is from a different survey, the “household survey” and it is not as good. Has to be revised periodically to correct it to the establishment survey.)
“unemployment rate ... is around its lowest level in nearly 50 years. “
Key figure.
Am I wrong. If everyone is working this number goes to zero?
More and more people in the workforce and something like 6 million unfilled jobs out there.
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