Posted on 08/03/2018 5:48:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA
Payroll growth turned sluggish in July after two robust months, though the unemployment rate edged lower and the overall jobs picture continued to look solid, according to Labor Department numbers released Friday.
Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 157,000 for the month, below the 190,000 expected in a survey of Reuters economists and the lowest gain since March. The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.9 percent, as expected, and is around its lowest level in nearly 50 years.
In the key wages category, average hourly earnings also met expectations, increasing 2.7 percent over the same period a year ago. The Federal Reserve is closely watching the wages component as it seeks to meet its 2 percent inflation target.
An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding jobs part-time for economic reasons, often referred to as the "real" unemployment rate, also declined, from 8.1 percent in June to 7.9 percent in July. The closely watched labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.9 percent.
The average work week declined one-tenth of a percentage point to 34.5 hours.
Though the July reading missed estimates, previous months' report were revised substantially higher. The May reading jumped from 244,000 to 268,000 while June's number increased from 213,000 originally reported up to 248,000, for a total net upward revision of 59,000 for the two months.
Average gains for the three-month period were a strong 224,000.
The numbers come amid an economy that has exhibited considerably stronger growth in the second quarter. GDP rose 4.1 for the period, and the third quarter also is expected to show gains at an above-trend pace.
For the labor market, the month saw job growth across a span of industries.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Running out of employable people.
Perhaps the higher black unemployment rate might be due to more blacks looking for jobs. I recall some economist saying unemployment can increase when MORE people are LOOKING.
When they stop looking for work (either employed OR so discouraged they quit looking) they are no longer considered “unemployed”.
Yep.. I remember that often.
Number of people age 16+ not in the labor force is near an all time high, but slightly improved from the high in May, 2018. https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/LNS15000000
That’s possible but I’m not sure how that’s determined as the rates are from those getting unemployment compensation. Someone long out of the labor force wouldn’t be getting that assistance.
And why does every positive news report involving the Trump administration carry some kind of caveat?
Today, the LIV sees this as a negative and disappointing number, as intended.
It's so tiresome (and predictable).
If this report had come out two or three years ago, the headline would be "Obama Economy Continues Its Surge."
1. They don't want/need to work.
2. They are unemployable, not unemployed.
Right on. Thank you for the explanation. So the ADP info is just another data point but the BLS numbers should be considered the authoritative superset?
Very possibly. 4% unemployment is generally considered "full employment", so the fact that we're hovering there would point to that as being true. You'll get confirmation if you start to see wages begin to rise at a faster pace than the 2.7% reported this period.
That’s the way I look at them. The ADP is “interesting”, the BLS is authoritative.
Yes it’s a “survey” but it’s a survey of 650,000 workplaces. Robust, as they say. (That’s for the non-farm payrolls number. The “unemployment rate” is from a different survey, the “household survey” and it is not as good. Has to be revised periodically to correct it to the establishment survey.)
“unemployment rate ... is around its lowest level in nearly 50 years. “
Key figure.
Am I wrong. If everyone is working this number goes to zero?
More and more people in the workforce and something like 6 million unfilled jobs out there.
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