Seems that the last administration was not perceived as serious about imposing sanctions that might hurt the Iranian economy.
What could have changed?
I would suggest a ‘perfect storm’.
First, Qatar got the World Cup games, and there’s rapid expansion going on there with condos, shopping, etc. Iranians have been negative about the banking sector for several decades, and I think about four years ago....the businessmen of Iran started to take their profits, and move them into Qatar (quietly) and invest in things....waiting on the Iran bank sector to fail.
Second, Dubai is under rapid expansion, with tons of condos being sold, and it’s the same story....Iranians with capital moving out out in the form of dollars or Euro.
Third, if you look at mortgages...it’s an issue now, because the money you’d expect to be there...from wealthy guys and business owners...is not there. Banks don’t have money to loan out.
Maybe if the Mullahs had some business background, they’d realize what’s happened here. But with zero confidence, unless the EU or someone comes in to save them....I think the banks will merge for the most part over the next twelve months, and you start to see more riots by summer of 2019.