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I was an election judge for a number of years. (A glorified title for "volunteer clerk"). My experience was that 90% of the provisional ballots were from registered Democrats. They appeared to be mostly legitimate, but in any case we were not allowed to challenge or refuse them.

A close election would seem to always flip to the Democrats on a recount, even without fraud. I have seen many such results. It is a structural problem.

I am certain there is plenty of fraud of course. Mail-in ballots seem to be the principle vector. A turnout of 100% + in a precinct is the obvious tell.

I believe that close elections (less than 1% margin) should not be recounted, they should be redone.