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538.com - 75% chance that Denocrats Win Control of the House in November@
538.com ^ | 8-16-2016 | 538.com

Posted on 08/16/2018 3:34:12 PM PDT by tcrlaf

Remember kiddies... This is the same bunch that told us that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning on the morning of Election Day.


(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; 538; bluewave; hopes; lies; screaming
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To: tcrlaf

About 15% less chance than Hillary had?


21 posted on 08/16/2018 3:57:46 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: tcrlaf

Chance Democrats get to 205... 210....215?


22 posted on 08/16/2018 4:00:30 PM PDT by SMGFan ( .)
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To: tcrlaf

I just want to know what President Hillary says about this.


23 posted on 08/16/2018 4:01:02 PM PDT by Yaelle
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To: ealgeone

If people fall for that, they get what they deserve.

So many are always ready to rely on somebody else, or BLAME someone else for their personal failure to follow their own good sense and intuition.

It’s been a long time since I believed anything that pollsters, statisticians, and most of the media have to say. I believe what I see and hear on the street and what my good sense and my heart tell me about the men and women who are running for office and claim to want to work for me.

Trust Yourself! And VOTE!


24 posted on 08/16/2018 4:01:57 PM PDT by Jamestown1630 ("A Republic, if you can keep it.")
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To: HamiltonJay

Trump will have to carry the GOP to victory despite themselves.


25 posted on 08/16/2018 4:02:27 PM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy UP!)
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To: tcrlaf

I’m going to make a mid-term election prediction using the same methodology as 538dotcom. Hmmmmmm, Hmmmmmmm, ok I’m thinking about it. Aha, I’ve got it; There is a 100% chance that the R’s pick up 10 to 15 House seats and they also pick up 6 to 12 Senate seats. See how easy that was. I’ll also predict that there is a 110% chance that my prediction is more accurate than their’s.


26 posted on 08/16/2018 4:03:37 PM PDT by fatman6502002 ((The Team The Team The Team - Bo Schembechler circa 1969))
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To: tcrlaf

What certainty do we have GOP will win most of these 25?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/25-districts-that-could-decide-the-house-in-2018/


27 posted on 08/16/2018 4:03:56 PM PDT by SMGFan ( .)
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To: beergarden
538. The same clown Silver who got it LUCKY in 2012 and became the darling of the leftard crowd.

Nate got it right in 2012 because the polls were telling him what he wanted to hear. In 2016 the poll he claimed was the most accurate poll in 2012 was saying Trump would win but Nate found reasons to find fault with it's 2016 results.

It was more important for Nate to be happy and wrong than be right by acknowledging the bad news he didn't want to hear.

28 posted on 08/16/2018 4:04:12 PM PDT by CaptainK ("no collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker")
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To: urbanpovertylawcenter

Many of the people who elected Trump hate Republicans and the Party with a passion.


29 posted on 08/16/2018 4:06:20 PM PDT by Jim Noble
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To: tcrlaf

Here’s something to think about, if you keep track of the internals of these polls that keep showing the Dems with a large generic ballot lead for the House. Start taking notice of the size of the D sample, they have to keep adding dems to the sample in order to keep that lead. Also the fact that Trump is now favored by 39% of black people. If the R’s ever get just 20% of the black vote the Dems cannot win, in fact they would get swamped in any election, Presidential or mid-term or off year or special elections. At that point it would be over for the Dems.


30 posted on 08/16/2018 4:07:59 PM PDT by fatman6502002 ((The Team The Team The Team - Bo Schembechler circa 1969))
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To: tcrlaf

538:

96% chance that ILLary gets 375 Electoral Votes


31 posted on 08/16/2018 4:08:12 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (I've Never Owned Slaves...You've Never Picked Cotton.End Of "Discussion".)
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To: tcrlaf

The Gaslight cometh.


32 posted on 08/16/2018 4:10:06 PM PDT by gogeo (No justice, no peace.)
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To: tcrlaf

Ha ha ha ha ha what is there edge the collapse of their generic lead, 4
1 GDP, the Cortez factor or the 27 state 500 pergessiomals with 15k volunteers the Rnc has set up
Im so confused


33 posted on 08/16/2018 4:11:07 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: tcrlaf

The Republicans will hold the Senate and probably pick up a couple of extra seats, simply because of the number of democrat held Senate seats that are up for election this year. The House does worry me though.

The fact that President Trump is now polling higher than Obama did at this point in Obama’s first term is not that comforting, considering what happened to the democrats in the 2010 election. President Trump needs to poll a hellofalot higher than Obama did to prevent the Republicans from losing seats in November.

Be afraid. Be very afraid. And then go out and vote and get all of your friends and family to vote.


34 posted on 08/16/2018 4:12:43 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation has ended!)
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To: jmaroneps37

Almost forgot the death blow 36% Black approval of Trump.


35 posted on 08/16/2018 4:13:23 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: tcrlaf

That is Nate Silver’s group. The boy wonder only got one election right and was Obama in 2008 and a Blind Man could have guessed that one right.

Silver has not had much going for him for awhile and he was so off in 2016 also. No credibility and no track record at all.


36 posted on 08/16/2018 4:14:51 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Jim Noble

Maybe so but they’ll come out and vote for Trump backed candidates. They know if the dems win the house, then having Trump as President is essentially meaningless because nothing, and I mean nothing will get done legislatively except impeachment hearings, and the MAGA agenda will be dead. That is a real motivator for those Trumpsters, like myself who hate the R party and a lot of its swampy denizens, but that’s not going to stop me from voting a straight R ticket this year. There is absolutely no reason to for any dem candidate for any of the Deplorables. We all know that a vote against the R’s is a vote against President Trump, so the Deplorables will deliver a huge win this November for our President.


37 posted on 08/16/2018 4:15:08 PM PDT by fatman6502002 ((The Team The Team The Team - Bo Schembechler circa 1969))
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To: tcrlaf

The ‘Rats will lose bigly.... Ocasio-Tampax can’t save ‘em


38 posted on 08/16/2018 4:15:14 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Enjoy the SUCK! , 'Rats ..)
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To: tcrlaf

We conservatives need to get fired up. The democrats are registering people left and right.


39 posted on 08/16/2018 4:15:49 PM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord. Psalm ( 32:12))
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To: beergarden

What election was Silver lucky about in 2012?


40 posted on 08/16/2018 4:16:06 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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