Posted on 08/16/2018 3:34:12 PM PDT by tcrlaf
Remember kiddies... This is the same bunch that told us that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning on the morning of Election Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Its also about surpressing donations...
Don’t fall for the BS
“90% chance Hillary would win 11/08/2016... These folks love to write checks their ass can’t cash.”
But...
But...
Hillary would have WON ig it hadn’t been for those wascally wussians, and the $46,00 they spent promoting Bernie on Fakebook!
I believe we will retain congress, but I agree; it will be in SPITE of the GOP, not because of it. I read that republican turn out at primaries, has been dismal. Apparently, there are still quite a few republican voters out there who think primaries are no big deal. I sure hope they don’t shirk their duty in November, as well.
He dropped it to 71% right before the 2016 election, even getting NC and FL wrong, at which point the libs came out screaming at him to change it to back higher.
Remember that polling depends upon an honest answer from the pollee that has been called at random for the benefit of the pollor. I have refused to answer any of the polling calls that I have received. They are using the phone line that I have paid for for their own profit. Why should I help them make a living? The pollsters are way behind weather forecasters in accuracy and they ask that we believe them? What hutzpah!
This is just so when it doesn’t happen they can say the Russians did it.
Folks are underestimating Silver. He has the best track record.
He projected the gop waves in 2010 and 2014.
In 2012 he had Obama at 90% chance when most others saw a horse race.
In 2016 the media was attacking him for giving Trump about a 1/3 chance. He pointed out that this election was closer than 2012 because Trump was stronger in swing states. He was the outlier saying the race was closer than liberals imagined, and giving Trump a real chance to win.
He missed really bad early in the primary season giving Trump no chance.
But overall he has been very good.
As I understand Silver and 538, they don’t do any actual polling themselves. They do a statistical analysis of other polling to determine their findings.
Given the difficulties of today’s polling, the oversampling of Democrats in many of them. I rate Silver and 538 very unreliable and as in 2016 the Polling is not getting very good results.
They still believe that Hillary did win and they were all correct.
The mind is a terrible thing.
Anyone watching things could have predicted GOP wins in 2010 and 2014 given how Liberal the Dems were. Obama was going to win re-election in 2012, very rarely does a president not get a 2nd term. Of course if the GOP had put up a better candidate he might have lost as did Carter in 1980 against Reagan.
Silver isn’t that good and never was.
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/nate-silver-huffington-post-polls-twitter-230815
Here is a link where Silver F-bombs Huff Post lefties that challenged him for giving Trump a reasonable chance to win.
Lets look at this fact shall we Jay...
African American support for Trump today is at 36%, that is more than 3X what it has been for elections going back decades. The same is true for Hispanic voters and overall the real positive numbers in favor of Trump and his policies grows daily, the only ones saying different is the MSM
So I call you out on your premise that they are not talking to folks out of the “circle”
Even #walkaway folks who stay Democrats are not happy with their platform and intend to vote their conscience, not party
Remind me who 538 said would win the White House.
These skewed polls do serve a purpose.
They can’t stop people from voting but they can discourage them from donating to republican campaigns.
The idea is: who wants to put money on a sure loser?
It worked against Trump. His campaign had half the cash that Hillary’s had. Trump was able to overcome that shortfall but, he was and is performing on a significantly higher level than his opponents (HRC,”The Media”, “The Deep State”, etc)—not everyone has that luxury.
I hope I’m not being pollyanna, but I just don’t see how the GOP doesn’t do well in November. The Dems haven’t won a midterm election since 2006, and that was when Bush was getting hammered by Iraq and Katrina. The Dem marginal voters do not show up at midterms whereas the GOP voters do. Add to that all GOP voters will know by November that a Dem win equals impeachment, and any swing voters who show up will have to be thinking about a return to the Obama economy. I dunno yeah their base is riled up over Trump but most of them live in 90% Dem urban districts not in play. I just don’t see it I guess we do have a lot of seats to protect.
Loons on parade. Consuming far too much coolaid.
That’s right, democrat voters.
YOu have the congress in the bag. No need to show up. You’ve already won.
LOL, Otay, you have a point.
LOL, probably so...
Which means it is LESS likely that Demoncrats will take control of the house than it was for Hillary to be elected president.
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