Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Unfortunately, the current consensus is a stall at and following landfall, resulting in catastrophic rainfall and freshwater flooding. Category 3-4 winds at landfall are tertiary to rainfall and storm surge for Florence. Stay tuned...
Prayers up that all that may be impacted are fully tuned in and paying very close attention!
It looks like almost 21 for Blacksburg. I get chased off Ocracoke to deal with flooding at home
Caught between a rock and a hard place. Please keep up updated when you are able. Godspeed.
Seems like these days most websites are scaling pages for the damned phones everyone has glued to their fingers 23/7 :-\
/rant
The latest European model, which many meteorologists consider better and more accurate than the North American model, show it hitting around Wilmington. The North American model shows it slightly north of that. It’s still early, but I would say to anyone in the general current projected pathway to get ready - now. Anything else is whistling through the graveyard.
I wish you all in NC, VA, etc. good luck. We went through this in PR last year. No gasoline available for almost two weeks after the storms.
As of today, with no big threat looming yet this year for us, I got my two generators topped off, a 20 gallon reserve, and our three cars filled up also. In my new “camp kitchen” I have three fresh 25 lbs. propane tanks.
It was very difficult last year living without electricity and no backup for the first two weeks. And I only went 40 days without power. Most people here were months without it.
With the upcoming midterms, this is Trump’s chance to shine. FEMA needs to preposition supplies and start staging scenarios on what to expect along the coast. Just showing preparation and him getting on TV and showing his concern for everyone will go a long way. I know it sounds a bit touchy-feely, but Katrina killed the GOP as they were blamed more than Nagin and Blanco.
Regardless of what the FEMA response is, the media will bash Trump like they did Bush for not doing enough.
Great thread.
I recently moved back to the SC low country and am reminded of 1964 Hurricane Dora. Had a toddler and a 2 week old baby. Husband overseas so I was living with my mother-in-law on Tybee Island. We went to a motel for a night and returned. The neighbor was astonished and insisted the four of us go with her to her family further inland. What a kind woman and her generous relatives.
Southerners are Christians in good times and bad.
Sitting here at 4000 feet in North Carolina.
Bring it, Florence.
Cat 3 now
Be careful what you wish for
And Good Luck form Kansas :-)
Regards
alfa6 ;>}
The only thing I’m worried about is the flood of New Yorkers that Charlotte might send...
According to the weather guys the GFS (North American model) has done a much better job with Flo’s track. Just saying.
Excellent suggestion !
Keep your eye on Isaac.
Hubris and Hurricane don’t seem a good mix, but best of luck, FRiend :-)
Oh wow that is terrible! I had heard a different take,just shows how easy it is for these things to change most likely a lot of variables in the tracking.
I have numerous friends up there hate to see it happen.
Kure Beach will get hit hard.
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