Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Having been through many hurricanes I have to remind people that hurricane conditions occur in a much wider area than just near the eye! The eye is what is being tracked, but the hurricane is many miles wide and NOT just the area near the eye is dangerous!
I’m across the water from Norfolk; some of the precipitation models show this area getting as much rain as they will in SE North Carolina, where the storm makes landfall. Minimum of eight inches, and that is a very conservative estimate. Not to mention the fact that we’ve had a very wet summer; ground is saturated, and with more heavy rain and wind on the way, a lot of trees may be coming down.
Wasn’t there some major flash flooding in Boone, NC this summer from heavy rain storms?
2-4 feet of rain can change the path of a stream pretty quick. I remember when a hurricane hit here in NH and it washed away a one foot deep ditch along the side of my driveway. It deposited that gravel in my back yard.
In Bastardi I trust; all others bring empirical data and your forecasting record. He was predicting a major hurricane along the southeastern U.S. coast on September 2nd.
“Having been through many hurricanes I have to remind people that hurricane conditions occur in a much wider area than just near the eye! The eye is what is being tracked, but the hurricane is many miles wide and NOT just the area near the eye is dangerous!”
I second that emotion! Last year San Juan, where I live, was “skirted” by Hurricane Irma (eyewall about 35 miles north of us), and we still had serious, enormous damage, all over the island which is the size of Connecticut. When María hit two weeks later, we barely had begun to recover.
I say it again, hurricanes are dangerous well beyond their eyewalls. In the mainland you have the ability to flee by land. Do it if your property is near a flood zone and/or if it’s not built to withstand 100+ MPH winds for hours and hours.
Bought my current house (SE VA) in 2012; what sold me was the whole house generator, powered by natural gas. As long as there’s gas in the pipeline, we’ll have power. But I’ve been told the gas companies were forced to convert their compressing stations to electricity by Obama (what a surprise), so my fuel and emergency power supply may not be as reliable after all. Thanks, again, Zero.
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
(Fayetteville)
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
(High Point - between Winston Salem and Greensboro)
Just make sure you change the oil every 100 hours in a long-term use scenario (more than a week without utility service).
I will post a new, updated thread as Florence nears landfall.
partial recon in...seems stronger then 115 MPH
We live in High Point. The winds are bad enough but the possible 3-4 feet of rainfall is what worries me. We are elevated here (1000ft) but that much rain, who knows.
WU blogs saying she’s a 4 now.
>It looks like almost 21 for Blacksburg. I get chased off Ocracoke to deal with flooding at home<
Yes, unfortunately you may very well be doing just that. 1985 taught me that stalled hurricanes can do lots of bad stuff quite a ways inland.
945mb raw pressure found
not sure the plus or minus the NHC is using here usually thats less then 2mb
Janet are you seeing this moving North a little?
new wind data...
likely 130-140 MPH surface winds now
still moving west..but now a wobble WNW...it all depends on the high north steering it
\
special update
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
that High is very strong. She should start picking up speed today in forward motion. This thing is going to bring a lot of water with it. Freepers in the Carolinas and VA need to rush preparations or GTFO now before Rita-like traffic sets in.
Wondering if any Navy folks know what (if anything) the fleet/s are doing in anticipation of this monster ?
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