So, you’re studying the weather maps and prognosticating from where? Are you in harm’s way or even potentially so? These people are. They’ve made their decision and are staying. Your worst case speculating from afar does what at this point? Nothing. They made their choice, and will have to deal with the consequences of their decision, Ocracoke will be cut off until the storm has moved on, no bridges just ferry service.
The eye wall is getting disorganized, windspeed is dropping. Other than immediate oceanfront this is turning into a moderate hurricane with some wind damage, storm surge damage on coastal immediate waterfront areas and coastal as well as inland flooding. Flooding could be fairly severe. It always is pretty bad with a hurricane or even tropical storm, though.
These people live this every day of their lives. They know what to do.
Well, my point is that sometimes experience or being too close to a situation can be misleading. Heck, I’ve had long experience lead me astray occasionally. Anyone with such & who is wise recognizes that. Experience is great, even absolutely essential in many situations, but, don’t let it be a straightjacket...
In this case, for one thing, 15’ storm surge with waves over that (my question is still “how big”?) is NOT worst case, and the collapse of the steering currents makes this storm less predictable than most. Has a similar scenario played out in this location, in the last generation or two? The serious weather watchers don’t seem to think so. (BTW, I am not myself making a prognostication - I am relying on others far more knowledgeable than I.)
Wind speed is down, but storm total energy is up, according to the NHC. The storm track has shifted slightly north. Make of that what you will.
I also note that there IS at least a point @ 27’ elevation on the island. Hopefully there is a strong shelter there.
In all this, I am not saying residents should be forced (as in “at gunpoint”) to leave. However, they MAY have made a fatal or very injurious mistake, based on their experience. Hopefully not!
“Prayers up” might not be a bad idea...