Well we never know, and things can change, but the models are all pretty consistent. The European model even agrees with the other models. Looks like Wilmington North Carolina is around the center of the ensemble models right now.
The models are often completely wrong. I remember the Irma models from last year, one of them got semi-close to the actual track, and the rest of them were completely off base.
I’m in the upstate of SC and the models from a couple of days ago showed Florence moving directly to this location. Today they show a trajectory a couple of hundred miles north. I predict we will see more revisions to the north, because this thing needs to be quite a bit further south to match any historical storm track that hits SC.