Posted on 10/02/2018 5:20:35 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Senate Democrats up for reelection this year in deep-red states face a nightmare decision on how to handle Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Vulnerable Democrats are hoping Republicans will force him to withdraw his nomination, allowing them to avoid politically divisive votes.
The Democrats in the toughest position are Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.).
Heitkamp and Manchin are undecided, and both are seeking another six-year term in states that Trump won by double digits in 2016. Donnelly is in much the same boat but said on Friday that he would vote ‘no’ on Kavanaugh.
All three voted for President Trump’s first Supreme Court pick, Neil Gorsuch, in 2017.
But this time around the partisan divide is much more bitter: The seat Kavanaugh has been tapped to fill will likely determine the balance of the court for years, and a confirmation vote is slated to take place a month before Election Day.
The Democratic base is much more fired up about Kavanaugh than it was about Gorsuch, who was confirmed in April 2017.
Liberal activists staged a sit-in Monday at Manchin’s campaign office in West Virginia in an effort to pressure him to vote against the nominee.
One Democratic senator, who requested anonymity, said there’s hopeful talk within the Senate Democratic caucus that Kavanaugh will drop out, even though he has adamantly vowed to stay.
The lawmaker said Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) is urging undecided centrist Democrats to wait until three undecided Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Jeff Flake (Ariz.) — make their positions known.
“He’s telling them, ‘Keep your powder dry.’ That means you don’t have to decide this -- wait and see how it plays out. There’s some speculation that Kavanaugh may not last,” the lawmaker said. “They always vow to stay right until they don’t.”
A second Democratic senator said there’s widespread disbelief in the caucus that Kavanaugh is holding on.
“I just had a conversation with a colleague who said they couldn’t believe he hasn’t dropped out yet,” the second lawmaker said Monday evening. “There was a time he could have done it gracefully and could have protected the Supreme Court.”
The lawmaker said whether Kavanaugh keeps fighting “depends on what else the FBI finds and where the votes are” but observed that “public opinion is trending against him after his testimony Thursday.”
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill on Monday found that 37 percent of registered voters want their senators to give Kavanaugh’s nomination the thumbs up, while 44 percent want them to vote down Trump’s nominee.
Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided in the survey conducted from Sept. 29 to 30, two days after Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to give testimony regarding her allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her at a party in 1982 when they were both in high school.
One previously undecided Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), who is up for reelection in a state Trump won by 20 points, came out against Kavanaugh the day after the nominee’s angry rebuttal of Ford’s allegation.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), however, said he will force vulnerable Democrats to vote on the nominee.
“The time for endless delay and obstruction has come to a close,” he said on the floor Monday. “We’ll be voting this week.”
Kavanaugh vowed last week to stick it out, no matter what.
“I will not be intimidated into withdrawing from this process,” he declared in his opening statement to the Judiciary Committee.
A day after his testimony, Senate GOP leaders agreed to a request from Flake to delay a Senate floor vote on Kavanaugh to give the FBI time to investigate the allegations against him. That probe is expected to be completed later this week.
Heitkamp suggested at a campaign stop Friday in North Dakota that Trump and GOP leaders could defuse the situation by finding another nominee, who would have just enough time to be confirmed before Congress adjourns for the year.
“There’s a lot of lawyers in America who can sit on the court,” she said in Grand Forks, according to the Associated Press. “I think this idea that there’s only one person that can do this job, we all need to recalibrate.”
Senate aides see Heitkamp as less likely to support Kavanaugh than Manchin because she has a stronger record defending abortion rights. His confirmation could tip the court’s balance against Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that established abortion rights nationwide.
Heitkamp may also feel more pressure to believe Ford’s allegation, which has exposed a significant gender divide among the electorate.
A recent USA Today/Ipsos Public Affairs Poll showed that 35 percent of women nationwide believe Ford’s accusation, while only 21 percent of men do. Women oppose him 43 percent to 23 percent, while men support him 40 percent to 36 percent.
Donnelly said last week, after Thursday’s Senate hearing, that he would “gladly welcome the opportunity to work with President Trump on a new nominee for this critically important position.”
Manchin has kept in close contact with undecided Republicans during the Kavanaugh debate.
He met with Collins, Murkowski and Flake in a Capitol Hill hideaway after Ford and Kavanaugh testified Thursday and, like them, didn’t give any hint afterward about how he would vote.
“We’re friends. We talk. There’s no decisions on anything. No one told me they made a decision, and we’re all still looking and talking and comparing,” Manchin told reporters after the meeting.
Donnelly said he would oppose Kavanaugh because he didn’t have enough information to assess the allegations against him, though he left himself a little bit of room to support the nominee if the FBI probe fails to turn up any corroborating evidence.
He cited the lack of a supplemental FBI investigation and his own inability “to get all information necessary” as reasons for his opposition.
Donnelly declined to answer a question Monday about whether he would be open to changing his position.
Trump has sent signals that he may now be of a mixed opinion about Kavanaugh.
On Friday he described Ford as “a very fine woman” and “very credible.”
The president on Monday said he was “surprised” at how vocal Kavanaugh “was about the fact that he likes beer and he’s had a little bit of difficulty.”
Trump noted that while he himself never drank, he saw a lot of people drinking in high school.
“They’d drink beer then go crazy,” he said in comments that appeared to undercut the nominee’s defense of his drinking habits.
But Trump also wants red-state Democrats to pay a political price if Kavanaugh goes down.
Trump chewed out McConnell 11 days ago in a private phone call from his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., for letting Kavanaugh’s nomination drag on, according to The New York Times.
The president later told associates that senators should have been forced to vote down Kavanaugh and suffer the political backlash, The Times reported.
But vulnerable Democrats wouldn’t be the only ones put in a tough spot with a floor vote. Collins, Flake and Murkowski, while not up for reelection this year, all have their political futures to consider if the Senate holds a confirmation vote on Kavanaugh.
Flake is retiring from Congress in early January. Collins is up for reelection in 2020, followed by Murkowski in 2022.
Republican candidates running against red-state Democrats have used Kavanaugh's nomination to go on the attack.
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) has called Ford’s accusations “absurd” and criticized Democrats for orchestrating a campaign against the nominee.
“At some point Brett Kavanaugh deserves due process,” Cramer said in a radio interview. “You can’t just stage these allegations to delay the Supreme Court.”
Indiana businessman Mike Braun (R) has accused Donnelly of being “more concerned with standing with his liberal Democrat leaders than standing for Hoosiers.”
West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who is running against Manchin, has accused his opponent of being “complicit in Senate Democrats’ disgraceful treatment of President Trump’s Supreme Court pick.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, whose president and CEO, Steven Law, is McConnell’s former chief of staff, highlighted a Republican poll Friday showing that 58 percent of West Virginians support confirming Kavanaugh, while 28 percent oppose him. The survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP polling firm, for the Judicial Crisis Network, a group that is spending more than $1 million on ads targeting red-state Democrats in an effort to pressure them to support Kavanaugh.
Some Republicans say centrist Democrats will be tempted to seize on any potential failure by the FBI investigation as a reason to vote for Kavanaugh.
“It’s a really terrible vote for them,” said a senior GOP aide.
Manchin on Monday said a lot would depend on the findings of the FBI probe.
“This investigation’s going to tell a lot,” he said.
Key updates here:
First, in the article the key line is that the Ds are in “disbelief” that Judge K hasn’t dropped out. It’s clear now THIS was plan A. They never thought Manchin-on-a-Hill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Testicles would have to vote and put their seats in jeopardy. Testicles says he’s a no, as does Donnelly. I wonder though if that wasn’t for show, and if their internal polling isn’t telling them something different?
Baris tells me he is moving IN today. Baris is the pollster, but I think even he is a tad behind the curve just because of the lag nature of polling, and I think already we’re seeing in ND and MO that the Judge K stuff is a difference maker. Therefore, I think Donnelly is already toast, I think Testicles is actually in trouble, but probably not trailing quite yet, and Manchin-on-a-Hill is a tossup along with Hugin (who is likely down 3-4, cuz, well, it’s Joisey).
BUT, even more important, we are seeing STEADY, CONSISTENT SHIFTS ACROSS THE BOARD. Mike Coffman, considered a dead man walking in his CO House seat, is suddenly now tied in internal polling. Hearing Dino Rossi is up in his district. Hearing that in fact Barbara Comstock has comeback and leads, which is huge. I think she was considered the “mos” vulnerable House member. Hunter up in CA. The guy in NC now appears safe. FL27, once a sure loss, is a slight lean R, and FL 7 saw the D candidate die (!).
I still have 3 seats gone in PA, Blum in IA, McSally’s seat in AZ (until I hear differently), Bishop in MI, one in NJ, and am throwing in Tenney in NY (though she is in a very red district), Collins in NY (but ditto), and one in CA (could end up being 2-3 losses, or one net flip). That gives me 10 losses, 2 D-R flips (MN), and 5 tossups for a total max loss of 13. There are some possible D-R flips though, including NV4, Antonio Sabato’s Ventura CA district, and the FL7 seat I mentioned. Enema’s seat in AZ is in a slight red district, but heavy with indies from ASU. Still, a low D turnout could flip that one.
In terms of voter enthusiasm, off the charts now for the Rs.
Baris confirms this. He had one Senate poll flip a full nine points to the R during the Judge K crap.
It’s clear form the Hill article today that the Ds (they are in “disbelief” K didn’t drop out) NEVER expected their idiots to have to defend their anti K votes. That’s very bad for Donnelly, Manchin, McCaskill, and Testicles.
Going out on a limb but I wouldn’t be surprised if, even after at first announcing a “no”, Donnelly didn’t say after the FBI report, “you know, nothing came back so I will vote yes.”
Thanks for the update, LS.
Major backfire on Dems over all this.
Now they want the vote to happen Friday and to move on to other issues - with the ability to say women weren’t heard or were ignored by Republicans over these claims.
Harris just came out with the car gang-rape new lie. Another week of FBI investigating (if Kavanaugh is up for hanging in there) seems to be a win for our side.
So good to hear from you.
The only downside (and we’ll accept it, of course) is that should McConnell have 50 votes without any Democrat/Left support when he calls the vote, these ‘Rats will have cover to vote to confirm.
That was the same 'disbelief' the swamp experienced when President Trump didn't 'drop out' when confronted with the dossier. I suspect over the years democrats have used 'soft blackmail' to control our side for decades.
That was the same 'disbelief' the swamp experienced when President Trump didn't 'drop out' when confronted with the dossier. I suspect over the years democrats have used 'soft blackmail' to control our side for decades - to them I say:
I don't give a damn if Kavanaugh threw ice, drank too much in high school, or if he gave wedgies in grade school...
MUNSTER — U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., said he will await an FBI investigation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh before deciding whether to raise him to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Donnelly spoke Friday afternoon before The Times Editorial Board.
“I think Hoosiers are where I am on this. I want to
know what happened,” he said.
... of course that was a few days ago, and that is a long time in this political environment.
Democratic Underground website encouraging members to go to FBI agents to report Kavanaugh “crimes”:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211220893
Sent: Monday, October 1, 2018 6:32 PM
To: rachel@msnbc.com
Subject: Fw: Publicize a way to get Kav reports into FBI records anyway
Sent: Monday, October 1, 2018 6:01 PM
To: sargentg@washpost.com
Subject: Publicize a way to get Kav reports into FBI records anyway
Hi Greg:
I think this workaround will work; check with your Bureau sources about whether it will.
Do your best to get the word out, FAST, that if you have relevant info on Kavanaugh or Mark Judge, to not call the FBI and wait for a call back, because that’s probably been specifically prohibited by McCabe and Trump until the 7 days are up.
Tell people to instead PHYSICALLY GO TO AN FBI OFFICE, tell them you’re there to REPORT A FEDERAL CRIME, and then sit in their damn lobby and refuse to leave until a SPECIAL AGENT TAKES YOUR REPORT.
INSIST you want to report the crime RIGHT THERE AND THEN, and don’t let them put you off. Because they probably will if you let them, Christopher Wray is almost surely under presidential orders to essentially run out the clock on this background investigation (BI) extension.
Thursday Sep. 27, 2018 Brett Kavanaugh committed maybe 100 federal crimes. He lied under oath to Congress about that many times, and everybody witnessed it. Whichever lie he told that a person has specific knowledge is false, is the federal crime to report there in the FBI field office.
And again, you must INSIST on reporting what you know to be a federal crime, based on whatever information you have that is contrary to his lie. Be prepared for the field office agents to try to not take the report, by saying it falls under a BI that a special team of agents is doing and you’d need to report it directly to them. Well, that special BI team of agents are not going to talk to you until after Friday, if then.
So INSIST. There has been a federal crime committed, and you insist on reporting what you know about it, right then and there.
Stay until you do.
Ask for a photocopy of the statement you sign.
Take the special agent’s name. I believe they’re required to submit it within 24 hours of receiving the report. Ask to be emailed and mailed a copy of it.
When you leave, immediately send all of the particulars to the Democratic senator of your choice. And to the Washington Post, New York Times, New Yorker, CNN, MSNBC, Guardian, and whatever other media of your choice. Probably the FBI will instruct you not to disclose your report to anybody... “ongoing investigation” and all that. I’d do it anyway and take my chances, because to not will probably be to have accomplished nothing.
If everyone who knows factually about a Kavanaugh lie to Congress does this immediately, we can at least get the reports physically into the FBI somewhere. And Democratic senators, the principled media, and the American public hopefully can successfully demand that the reports be taken into account before a final vote to confirm Kavanaugh.
I hope this works. We are in a fast-moving constitutional crisis created by a dishonest authoritarian president and his Republican senator co-conspirators. The White House is in the position to make Christopher Wray run out the clock while avoiding any new negative information about Kavanaugh in a sham of a BI. And we need to do everything can to counter this, right NOW.
Thank you.
Thanks, Larry.
It would be all over for the vile Dems if we had an honest media.
McCaskill is going to get tossed in MO. She has a competent opponent this time.
Our Donald is out among We The People hosting HUGE rallies. Another one tonight!! The American people love “Our President” and it shows at each and every rally. It would be awesome if President Trump held a rally in California for John Cox for Governor and against Pelosi and Madd Maxine. There are a lot of disgusted Californians (those who haven’t left YET). Repeal of the Marxist Gasoline Tax that passed without going to the people is on the ballot in CA and people are motivated to vote. CA gasoline, among the highest in the nation, is at $4 per gallon. Behold people who are being “politically raped” each and every day including at the DMV where they’re paying outrageous vehicle registration on top of waiting 5 plus hours to get anything done. Marxist RATs in CA have their hands in everyone’s pocket at every gas station in CA. The roads are a mess and illegals are everywhere. San Francisco is a sewer as everyone knows.
When the Marxist RATs and MSM accuse people of “rape,” note that they don’t mention the “political rape” being done to the American people in Blue States.
If Donnelly, et. al., vote Yes in the end as a sop towards their voters, do they really think that will save their seats at this point?
Should we believe that voters are woke to this and will still vote out all the Democrats who desecrated the Senate in their scorched earth confirmation hearings, or will the Democrats and MSM try to convince voters that it's really "that's just politics, no hard feelings, right?"
I can't believe that Republican voter enthusiasm will suddenly die down if Donnelly, Tester, McCaskill, and the rest eventually vote for Kavanaugh in the end.
This time, they went too far over the line to walk it back.
-PJ
originally with the invention of color TV, I remember Blue represented Republicans...Red = Democrats...
When it became obvious Red= Communist it had to be changed....
another thing in a similar vane is Orwell's 1984....It used to be required reading in HS......That had to change with the new Federal indoctrination programs that took over the schools......
Sometimes the obvious hits too close to home for liberals
They are trying to swamp the system with false witness reports. They figure if there are enough of them, they will not be subject to lying to the FBI problems.
Add King (Ind Me.)..this vote could cost him more then he realizes...
Heard anything about Roskam in IL?
Thanks,
L
Will the bump in the numbers “stick” for another 5 weeks?
Paulsen will be a loss in CD3 in Minnesota.
Heitcamp is down 10 points in the polls to her competitor. My guess is that Trump is telling Kavanagh to hang tough. Claire McCaskill is in big trouble too.
Yeah, that still bugs me as well. Red has been the color of Communism since it’s inception in the mid 1800s, and the media flipped color schemes to D-blue R-red in the 2000 election.
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