Key updates here:
First, in the article the key line is that the Ds are in “disbelief” that Judge K hasn’t dropped out. It’s clear now THIS was plan A. They never thought Manchin-on-a-Hill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Testicles would have to vote and put their seats in jeopardy. Testicles says he’s a no, as does Donnelly. I wonder though if that wasn’t for show, and if their internal polling isn’t telling them something different?
Baris tells me he is moving IN today. Baris is the pollster, but I think even he is a tad behind the curve just because of the lag nature of polling, and I think already we’re seeing in ND and MO that the Judge K stuff is a difference maker. Therefore, I think Donnelly is already toast, I think Testicles is actually in trouble, but probably not trailing quite yet, and Manchin-on-a-Hill is a tossup along with Hugin (who is likely down 3-4, cuz, well, it’s Joisey).
BUT, even more important, we are seeing STEADY, CONSISTENT SHIFTS ACROSS THE BOARD. Mike Coffman, considered a dead man walking in his CO House seat, is suddenly now tied in internal polling. Hearing Dino Rossi is up in his district. Hearing that in fact Barbara Comstock has comeback and leads, which is huge. I think she was considered the “mos” vulnerable House member. Hunter up in CA. The guy in NC now appears safe. FL27, once a sure loss, is a slight lean R, and FL 7 saw the D candidate die (!).
I still have 3 seats gone in PA, Blum in IA, McSally’s seat in AZ (until I hear differently), Bishop in MI, one in NJ, and am throwing in Tenney in NY (though she is in a very red district), Collins in NY (but ditto), and one in CA (could end up being 2-3 losses, or one net flip). That gives me 10 losses, 2 D-R flips (MN), and 5 tossups for a total max loss of 13. There are some possible D-R flips though, including NV4, Antonio Sabato’s Ventura CA district, and the FL7 seat I mentioned. Enema’s seat in AZ is in a slight red district, but heavy with indies from ASU. Still, a low D turnout could flip that one.
In terms of voter enthusiasm, off the charts now for the Rs.
Baris confirms this. He had one Senate poll flip a full nine points to the R during the Judge K crap.
It’s clear form the Hill article today that the Ds (they are in “disbelief” K didn’t drop out) NEVER expected their idiots to have to defend their anti K votes. That’s very bad for Donnelly, Manchin, McCaskill, and Testicles.
Going out on a limb but I wouldn’t be surprised if, even after at first announcing a “no”, Donnelly didn’t say after the FBI report, “you know, nothing came back so I will vote yes.”
Thanks for the update, LS.
Major backfire on Dems over all this.
Now they want the vote to happen Friday and to move on to other issues - with the ability to say women weren’t heard or were ignored by Republicans over these claims.
Harris just came out with the car gang-rape new lie. Another week of FBI investigating (if Kavanaugh is up for hanging in there) seems to be a win for our side.
So good to hear from you.
That was the same 'disbelief' the swamp experienced when President Trump didn't 'drop out' when confronted with the dossier. I suspect over the years democrats have used 'soft blackmail' to control our side for decades.
That was the same 'disbelief' the swamp experienced when President Trump didn't 'drop out' when confronted with the dossier. I suspect over the years democrats have used 'soft blackmail' to control our side for decades - to them I say:
I don't give a damn if Kavanaugh threw ice, drank too much in high school, or if he gave wedgies in grade school...
MUNSTER — U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., said he will await an FBI investigation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh before deciding whether to raise him to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Donnelly spoke Friday afternoon before The Times Editorial Board.
“I think Hoosiers are where I am on this. I want to
know what happened,” he said.
... of course that was a few days ago, and that is a long time in this political environment.
Thanks, Larry.
It would be all over for the vile Dems if we had an honest media.
Our Donald is out among We The People hosting HUGE rallies. Another one tonight!! The American people love “Our President” and it shows at each and every rally. It would be awesome if President Trump held a rally in California for John Cox for Governor and against Pelosi and Madd Maxine. There are a lot of disgusted Californians (those who haven’t left YET). Repeal of the Marxist Gasoline Tax that passed without going to the people is on the ballot in CA and people are motivated to vote. CA gasoline, among the highest in the nation, is at $4 per gallon. Behold people who are being “politically raped” each and every day including at the DMV where they’re paying outrageous vehicle registration on top of waiting 5 plus hours to get anything done. Marxist RATs in CA have their hands in everyone’s pocket at every gas station in CA. The roads are a mess and illegals are everywhere. San Francisco is a sewer as everyone knows.
When the Marxist RATs and MSM accuse people of “rape,” note that they don’t mention the “political rape” being done to the American people in Blue States.
If Donnelly, et. al., vote Yes in the end as a sop towards their voters, do they really think that will save their seats at this point?
Should we believe that voters are woke to this and will still vote out all the Democrats who desecrated the Senate in their scorched earth confirmation hearings, or will the Democrats and MSM try to convince voters that it's really "that's just politics, no hard feelings, right?"
I can't believe that Republican voter enthusiasm will suddenly die down if Donnelly, Tester, McCaskill, and the rest eventually vote for Kavanaugh in the end.
This time, they went too far over the line to walk it back.
-PJ
Heard anything about Roskam in IL?
Thanks,
L
Will the bump in the numbers “stick” for another 5 weeks?
Paulsen will be a loss in CD3 in Minnesota.
Sad that McSally can’t beat the lesbo socialist, in AZ.
(If I’m reading your post, correctly.)
Thank you for the excellent commentary. I cannot wait until November!
Dude. No.
Never let someone move in.
They claim they will only be on your couch for a week, and 2 months later, you have to evict them.
Wow. Right now you think Sinema will win??
I went down memory lane and found this article. Liberal tears are so sweet.
To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory.
By JASMINE C. LEE MARCH 26, 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/26/us/elections/house-races-midterms.html
Tester is a committed libtard who voted against Gorsuch. No chance he was ever gonna vote for Kav even before this. The only 4 who might, Donnelly (says no now), Heidi; Manchin, and the bastard in Alabama (who said he’d vote no 5 days ago and has been ducking constituents in fear ever since)
In House calculations don’t forget to take into account us taking back Lambchop’s seat, which is certain (though he may beat Rolfthus in that new courtmandered seat)
I think Enema’s seat is a lost cause, D leaning and a strong rat candidate in the former Mayor of Phoenix.
The red state Dems were all likely toast even without Kavanaugh... the most likely of the bunch to survive was Manchin, and honestly don’t think he would have.
Manchin has ALWAYS been a yes on Kavanaugh, though he hasn’t publicly said one way or another... he knows he has zero chance at re-election if he votes no...but he also can’t be the vote that gives Kavanaugh 50 either so, until there are 50 on the board he won’t declare but when th vote counts he’ll go yes as will a few other Dems. This has always been a 52-55 vote to confirm outcome.. as long as the GOP puts up 50... nothing in the whole Ford fiasco changed the end outcome for the confirmation vote...
Reports were after the ford hearing the Heidi and Donnelly both said No.. Donnelly walked back to a maybe in less than 48 hours.. never heard anything about Heidi walking back her no.. but her polling is Done 8+ points since the ford hearing ended.
Even IF they vote yes, they are toast.. the damage is done. I would have said Manchin might eek it out in WV, prior to the Kavanaugh circus, but the Dems despicable behavior during it slammed that door shut regardless of how he votes.
We discussed it a while ago, I have always seen the fall as the GOP 6+ in the Senate after the midterms and if the winds blow just right they could be up double digits. The Kavanaugh fiasco definitely has put the winds damn near close to”just right”
Sadly the GOP’s incompetent messaging in the upper Midwest, likely won’t win them a single sentat seat in the states Trump won, even with the Kavanaugh mess.. all are down 11-18 points running campaigns with messaging that never will sell. PA18 and OH12 all over again. They should handily be gaining 2 at least instead they will goose egg here. iF they fix their messaging from small ball nonsense with Kavanaugh at their back they may manage to pull something out.. but given they refuse to learn that lesson after PA18 and OH12 I doubt highly they will change now.
MN is a likely pick up post Kavanaugh... and that’s the only state beside IL Trump lost... shameful and despicable GOP! When will you wake up.
However Kavanaugh will probably save a few congressional districts up this way.. pre Kavanaugh I expected GOP to lose 10 districts or possibly more in the upper Midwest alone...post Kavanaugh they will still lose seats here but not that many.
The Kavanaugh circus has closed any chance at the Dems retaking the house, and I would say looking at even money or better than the GOP gains house seats.
Kavanaugh did finally engage and enrage the GOP base.. which evaporated the Dem enthusiasm advantage... but more importantly it engaged and enraged the independents, non traditional MAGA voters and cross overs... and that is what is going to Trounce the Dems.
This isn’t a RED wave coming. It a DECENCY wave.. those voters aren’t suddenly Red, but they are going to punish the blue for their despicable behaviorI espect a 2-1 break to the GOP in that group.
The only thing that changes the election from being a disaster for the Dems would be if the GOP after all this failed to put up 50 and he isn’t confirmed.. then you will that anger be directed at the GOP as well. I don’t see that happening, but politics are politics.
Personally if for some reason 2 GOP Senators do betray the vote to confirm, Trump should just publicly announce he will wait until the new senate is seated and submit him again... I have no problem making the fall election a referendum on the court... no doubt the GOP will win more than enough seats so that Murkowski and Collins can’t mess it up again... and flake will be gone.
However with that said, I fully expect Kavanaugh confirmed 52-55 votes.