The red state Dems were all likely toast even without Kavanaugh... the most likely of the bunch to survive was Manchin, and honestly don’t think he would have.
Manchin has ALWAYS been a yes on Kavanaugh, though he hasn’t publicly said one way or another... he knows he has zero chance at re-election if he votes no...but he also can’t be the vote that gives Kavanaugh 50 either so, until there are 50 on the board he won’t declare but when th vote counts he’ll go yes as will a few other Dems. This has always been a 52-55 vote to confirm outcome.. as long as the GOP puts up 50... nothing in the whole Ford fiasco changed the end outcome for the confirmation vote...
Reports were after the ford hearing the Heidi and Donnelly both said No.. Donnelly walked back to a maybe in less than 48 hours.. never heard anything about Heidi walking back her no.. but her polling is Done 8+ points since the ford hearing ended.
Even IF they vote yes, they are toast.. the damage is done. I would have said Manchin might eek it out in WV, prior to the Kavanaugh circus, but the Dems despicable behavior during it slammed that door shut regardless of how he votes.
We discussed it a while ago, I have always seen the fall as the GOP 6+ in the Senate after the midterms and if the winds blow just right they could be up double digits. The Kavanaugh fiasco definitely has put the winds damn near close to”just right”
Sadly the GOP’s incompetent messaging in the upper Midwest, likely won’t win them a single sentat seat in the states Trump won, even with the Kavanaugh mess.. all are down 11-18 points running campaigns with messaging that never will sell. PA18 and OH12 all over again. They should handily be gaining 2 at least instead they will goose egg here. iF they fix their messaging from small ball nonsense with Kavanaugh at their back they may manage to pull something out.. but given they refuse to learn that lesson after PA18 and OH12 I doubt highly they will change now.
MN is a likely pick up post Kavanaugh... and that’s the only state beside IL Trump lost... shameful and despicable GOP! When will you wake up.
However Kavanaugh will probably save a few congressional districts up this way.. pre Kavanaugh I expected GOP to lose 10 districts or possibly more in the upper Midwest alone...post Kavanaugh they will still lose seats here but not that many.
The Kavanaugh circus has closed any chance at the Dems retaking the house, and I would say looking at even money or better than the GOP gains house seats.
Kavanaugh did finally engage and enrage the GOP base.. which evaporated the Dem enthusiasm advantage... but more importantly it engaged and enraged the independents, non traditional MAGA voters and cross overs... and that is what is going to Trounce the Dems.
This isn’t a RED wave coming. It a DECENCY wave.. those voters aren’t suddenly Red, but they are going to punish the blue for their despicable behaviorI espect a 2-1 break to the GOP in that group.
The only thing that changes the election from being a disaster for the Dems would be if the GOP after all this failed to put up 50 and he isn’t confirmed.. then you will that anger be directed at the GOP as well. I don’t see that happening, but politics are politics.
Personally if for some reason 2 GOP Senators do betray the vote to confirm, Trump should just publicly announce he will wait until the new senate is seated and submit him again... I have no problem making the fall election a referendum on the court... no doubt the GOP will win more than enough seats so that Murkowski and Collins can’t mess it up again... and flake will be gone.
However with that said, I fully expect Kavanaugh confirmed 52-55 votes.
Too gloomy, but in general accurate that in the upper midwest, this is a decency wave.
1) We’ll get +2 house seats in MN and the AG spot. My MN people are still optimistic that Housaely will win and that we still may pull out the third MN flip.
2) OH18 isn’t going anywhere. We won’t lose any seats in OH and Bishop is now safe in MI.
3) Guess you didn’t see my continued discussions of OH voter registration. “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” did an amazing study based on their 100% correct (well, actually they were LOW for TRUMP) in 2016. What they found was that OH SecState has a registered voter advantage of 600,000 Rs . . . except there were also a crapload of “unaffiliated” voters. “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” used historical voting methodology to go back into an entire (large) swing county to figure out who these people really were. In 2016, they predicted this county would be a draw at best (Ds couldn’t win without it). In fact, Trump won it by a good margin.
They have continued that analysis this year and found that once the “unaffiliateds” were properly assigned, OH had a REAL voter difference of +300,000 Rs with only 2000 “U”s that they couldn’t assign. In other words, it’s damn near impossible for an R statewide to lose. DeWine & Renacci will win OH. Balderson is considered safe by “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant,” and Chabot is totally safe.
4) Redistricting will cost us 3 seats in PA, but there is some unease now among Ds regarding Lambie Pie’s seat. Remember, even though Trump won PA by a mere 40,000 votes or so (can’t remember the post recount total), Ds still have a REAL 300,000 vote advantage.
5) The problem in MI is that James wasn’t ready. He didn’t have enough name recognition and NO “black Republican” will step in and seize the black community. Our best chance for a senate seat there was Kid Rock, who on the basis of his celebrity and literal adoration in MI would have walked into that seat. I know, hard for traditionalists to swallow.
6) Right now, Manchin is a draw. Even with a yes vote on Judge K, he may lose.
7) Heitkamp is a different issue: she’s a “no” because she’s already toast and has no reason to burn bridges with the D party.
8) We’ll hold both key IL seats.
9) WI is a puzzle. Some say it’s close, one poll has Walker up and Vukmir close, two have them down, one has Vukmir down big. But as I recall, polls there ALWAYS have Walker down.
10) The state that baffles me is MT. How in the hell Testicles can stay in office is beyond me, especially with a “no” on Judge K. Richard Baris has not polled MT, but tells me that Testicles ALWAYS “overpolls.” We’ll see. Gianforte is up in all polls, though closer in some.
11) I totally agree with your recommendation about what to do if Judge K vote fails, but I don’t think it will.
Sources tell me Manchin is a “yes” but really doesn’t want it “out there.” It seems (if anyone can translate Susan Collins’s whining) that she is a yes. That would be a tie, and Pence makes it Justice K.
A source also told me, though, that a couple of nights ago Yertle had a “come to Jesus” meeting with the Three Cuckateers, telling Flakey he would never work ANYWHERE in town again if he voted no, including as a lobbyist and that Yertle would see to it; telling Collins she would be finished and he would make sure she didn’t become governor; and telling MurCowSki that he “had a long memory” and would primary her and ensure she never got reelected. This comes from a pretty good source, so I have to think all three are a yes now. If that happens, watch for “heroic” Joe Donnelly to be a “yes.”