Too gloomy, but in general accurate that in the upper midwest, this is a decency wave.
1) We’ll get +2 house seats in MN and the AG spot. My MN people are still optimistic that Housaely will win and that we still may pull out the third MN flip.
2) OH18 isn’t going anywhere. We won’t lose any seats in OH and Bishop is now safe in MI.
3) Guess you didn’t see my continued discussions of OH voter registration. “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” did an amazing study based on their 100% correct (well, actually they were LOW for TRUMP) in 2016. What they found was that OH SecState has a registered voter advantage of 600,000 Rs . . . except there were also a crapload of “unaffiliated” voters. “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” used historical voting methodology to go back into an entire (large) swing county to figure out who these people really were. In 2016, they predicted this county would be a draw at best (Ds couldn’t win without it). In fact, Trump won it by a good margin.
They have continued that analysis this year and found that once the “unaffiliateds” were properly assigned, OH had a REAL voter difference of +300,000 Rs with only 2000 “U”s that they couldn’t assign. In other words, it’s damn near impossible for an R statewide to lose. DeWine & Renacci will win OH. Balderson is considered safe by “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant,” and Chabot is totally safe.
4) Redistricting will cost us 3 seats in PA, but there is some unease now among Ds regarding Lambie Pie’s seat. Remember, even though Trump won PA by a mere 40,000 votes or so (can’t remember the post recount total), Ds still have a REAL 300,000 vote advantage.
5) The problem in MI is that James wasn’t ready. He didn’t have enough name recognition and NO “black Republican” will step in and seize the black community. Our best chance for a senate seat there was Kid Rock, who on the basis of his celebrity and literal adoration in MI would have walked into that seat. I know, hard for traditionalists to swallow.
6) Right now, Manchin is a draw. Even with a yes vote on Judge K, he may lose.
7) Heitkamp is a different issue: she’s a “no” because she’s already toast and has no reason to burn bridges with the D party.
8) We’ll hold both key IL seats.
9) WI is a puzzle. Some say it’s close, one poll has Walker up and Vukmir close, two have them down, one has Vukmir down big. But as I recall, polls there ALWAYS have Walker down.
10) The state that baffles me is MT. How in the hell Testicles can stay in office is beyond me, especially with a “no” on Judge K. Richard Baris has not polled MT, but tells me that Testicles ALWAYS “overpolls.” We’ll see. Gianforte is up in all polls, though closer in some.
11) I totally agree with your recommendation about what to do if Judge K vote fails, but I don’t think it will.
Sources tell me Manchin is a “yes” but really doesn’t want it “out there.” It seems (if anyone can translate Susan Collins’s whining) that she is a yes. That would be a tie, and Pence makes it Justice K.
A source also told me, though, that a couple of nights ago Yertle had a “come to Jesus” meeting with the Three Cuckateers, telling Flakey he would never work ANYWHERE in town again if he voted no, including as a lobbyist and that Yertle would see to it; telling Collins she would be finished and he would make sure she didn’t become governor; and telling MurCowSki that he “had a long memory” and would primary her and ensure she never got reelected. This comes from a pretty good source, so I have to think all three are a yes now. If that happens, watch for “heroic” Joe Donnelly to be a “yes.”
I think we agree more than we disagree, but I just don’t see any good news in the upper Midwest in the Senate. The GOP simply refuses to recognize you don’t run a campaign targeting just your base in states where your base is the historic minority.. particularly in a year where your opponents are as motivated as the D’s are this year.
The only bright spot I see is in MN.. now admittedly the Kavanaugh bounce isn’t in the polling in most of these states but to be down 11-18 in every race is flat out pathetic, and inexcusable.
I live in PA17 (formerly PA18) and the messaging (what little there is) is the same crap that I tried to tell people could and eventually did cost PA18. And nearly lost OH12.. the GOP messaging doesn’t hunt here... yet they still keep using it.. it’s pathetic and not going to win them anything.
And for the record, Lamb is going to cakewalk to re-election. I bet you most voters in this district couldn’t even name you the R oponent.
Casey is the weakest guy there could be, and Barletta isn’t even a footnote.. they are barely doing anything and what they are doing is TERRIBLe messaging if you actually want to and are trying to win. I would like to think OH should be a solid R win, but I don’t know if even Kavaanaugh bounce is going to close 10+ points, especially if they are running the same messaging in OH as they are in PA which I assume they are.
I do agree that the GOP will confirm, and Manchin was AlWAYS a yes, never any doubt about it... but he also knows he can’t be the yes that puts Kavanaugh over. So GOP must get 50 on therir own, once they do Manchin and a few others will vote yes... but if the GOP doesn’t put up 50 those Dems will stick to their parties line knowing it ends their political careers.
52-55 confirm votes at the end of the day. I full expect confirmation, but I am just saying if for some reason it doesn’t happen and I were Trump I would immediately announce my intention to resubmit him after the new senate is seated because I will not allow the sham, and repugnant, character assassination of a good man like Kavanaugh he rewarded.
Make every senator up for re election and their opponents have to state openly their intention for for voting on Kavanaugh... nationalize the election.. and force the left’s hand.
I have no problem making the midterms a referendum on the court... I don’t think for one minute the GOP will fail to confirm, but, if some weirdness happens, that is what I would do.
The idea the Dems thought this Kavanaugh circus ha any upside tells you how out of step they are. Trump isn’t going to back down just because you squeal... and the attempt to turn what at worst, if all true, was essentially some underage unwanted drunken groping into he’s a sexual predator, was ridiculous. Dems obviously thought it would sell with women, but other than the far left Kool aid drinkers I haven’t met a single woman of any political affiliation that isn’t angry as hell at the Dems. They see through this whole fiasco inately and know this harms real true victims and even if they are sympathetic to Ms Ford, they feel she’s a victim of the Dems as well.
Obviously they thought they had an upside to all this, but they were beyond stupid to think that.