Even the Seemingly Disappointing Job Creation Numbers Are Actually Pretty Great

New York Times ^ | Oct 5, 2018 | Neil Irwin

[edwinland]

The September jobs numbers are the 2018 United States economy in a nutshell: Even when an economic report is bad these days, it’s actually pretty good.

When the latest numbers first were broadcast at 8:30 a.m. Friday, it looked like a big disappointment. Employers added only 134,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, well below the levels of recent months and well below what forecasters had projected.

But even apart from the usual warnings about statistical error and randomness (the true rate of job creation could turn out to be either much higher or much lower), the numbers are a good bit better than that single data point suggests.

...

And revisions to previous months’ numbers were positive, so there was more momentum heading into September than it had seemed. August was already reported to be strong, but now looks to have been a blockbuster month for job creation — the previously reported 201,000 jobs added has been revised up to 270,000.

In other words, if you simply took those 69,000 extra jobs created in August and credit them to September, suddenly you would have two months of very steady job creation at a high rate.

...

It’s the latest piece of evidence that 2018 is set to be the best year for the United States economy in quite a long time.

[RipSawyer]

“The reason you are not seeing inflation is the real unemployment rate is higher than what’s been reported.”

That is part of it, the other part is that inflation is higher than what is being reported. We need at least two different inflation calculations, one being the increase for those who have a very comfortable income and spend much of it on things which are not necessary, that inflation rate would be low. The other should be for those who have to watch every penny and hope they can cover necessities, that rate would be far higher.

[StewartTardif]

Everywhere I go I see help wanted signs

[StewartTardif]

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