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To: ckilmer; cba123

The shock is being felt throughout China. Thus, to say nothing has changed is incorrect. Second, China does nothing hastily. If you think it will respond immediately to America’s economic, political and military moves, that is a mistake. Under present conditions China is energy poor. It is in the same position the USA was thirty years ago, and that along with what has been an overweening self-confidence should now cause it to reevaluate its future. It will tread water for years to come.


11 posted on 10/06/2018 2:18:42 PM PDT by Bookshelf
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To: Bookshelf
The strategic situation hasn't changed that much:

a) Anything China produces, the US can produce (with a modicum of effort). The reverse is not true (see jet engines);

b) China is profoundly dependent on sea lanes for food, fuel, and the exports that drive its economy.

The US is the only major industrialized power that is nearly resource independent, and its economy does not depend on exports, and only to some degree on imports that can be sourced elsewhere if necessary.

In a war scenario, China could inflict a lot of damage on US naval forces close to shore, but China would be blockaded, and the rail routes through Central Asia and Siberia are too puny to carry the weight of Chinese exports and imports.

Plus all those Chinese dollar-denominated accounts would immediately become illiquid, as the US would refuse to clear any transactions involving Chinese banks and would severely penalize any third party trying to do so on China's behalf (Europe).

If push comes to shove with the US any time in the near future, China is screwed.

38 posted on 10/06/2018 5:27:42 PM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens")
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