Posted on 10/07/2018 7:18:24 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Democrats have a better shot than ever at winning back the House majority with 30 days to go before the midterm elections, but have seen their narrow shot of taking back the Senate erode amid the controversy surrounding Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court.
The Kavanaugh saga has dominated politics for a fortnight, energizing partisans in both parties. While no one can be certain how the next four weeks will play out, the fight seems likely to hurt Republicans further with the suburban female voters seen as pivotal in many toss-up House districts.
But there are signs that the fight over Kavanaugh’s nomination has helped Republicans close a wide enthusiasm gap with Democrats, who have so far held the edge in momentum.
The National Republican Congressional Committee saw a 279-percent spike in donations in the first week of October compared to the same period in September. The group did not provide a dollar figure for the haul.
And a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on Wednesday showed Democrats leading Republicans in voter enthusiasm by only 2 points, down from 10 points in July.
“The Republican Party does three things: cut taxes, kill terrorists and confirm judges,” said Matt Gorman, a spokesman for the N (NRCC), the GOP’s House campaign arm.
“When we do that, we fire up our base and appeal to independents. We’re about to face voters having done all three.”
That rising enthusiasm is a concern for Democrats. As early as a few weeks ago they had seen a narrow path to retake the Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 majority, but those prospects appear to be dwindling.
Voters angered over the treatment of Kavanaugh appear to be moving toward the GOP's Senate candidates in deeply red states where President Trump is more popular, including North Dakota, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas.
Kavanaugh was confirmed to Supreme Court on Saturday, ending days of acrimony in the Senate after three women came forward to accuse the judge of sexual misconduct, though he has strongly denied the accusations.
The vote marks a key victory for Republicans, whose base rallied around Kavanaugh, believing the judge was the victim of a partisan smear campaign.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Saturday hailed the confirmation of Kavanaugh as a major boost to Senate Republican candidates in the midterms.
For Republicans, the biggest boost will be in a series of competitive Senate races, as Democrats must defend 10 seats in states Trump won in 2016, mainly in North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia.
In North Dakota, two recent polls showed Sen. Heitkamp (D) trailing her GOP challenger, Rep. Kevin Cramer (N.D.), by 10- and 12-point margins.
And despite polling showing strong support for Kavanaugh in a state that President Trump won by nearly 36 points, Heitkamp voted against confirming Kavanaugh, saying the Senate testimony of one of Kavanaugh's accusers, Christine Blasey Ford, had been a key factor in her decision.
In Indiana, Sen. Joe Donnelly, another vulnerable Democrat in a red state, also opposed the judge in the final confirmation vote in a state where polling has shown a tight race.
A recent Fox News poll showed Donnelly leading his Republican challenger Mike Braun by only 2 points – well within the survey's margin of error.
But another vulnerable red-state Democrat, Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), broke party ranks when he voted to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, mitigating the risk of GOP attacks in the final stretch of his reelection campaign against West Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.
A GOP strategist told The Hill that private polling shows that the Kavanaugh nomination ranks as a top issue, alongside jobs and the economy, in West Virginia as well as in North Dakota.
Meanwhile Democrats are seeing deep-red states where they had hoped for a narrow path now slip away.
In Texas, momentum appeared to be shifting towards Sen. Ted Cruz (R), who said he raised $12 million in the third fundraising quarter of the year. And a recent Quinnipiac poll showed the senator with a 9-point lead over opponent Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D).
In Tennessee, a Fox News poll showed Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) leading former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) by 5 points.
Bredesen also faced more bad news after a major Democratic super PAC said it would not spend resources to boost his campaign after he said he supports Kavanaugh's confirmation.
Meanwhile, Republican ads seizing on the Supreme Court fight began hitting airwaves in Missouri and Montana – two red states with vulnerable Democratic incumbents – last week before the Senate voted to confirm Kavanaugh.
In Montana, an ad from Republican Matt Rosendale hit Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Senate Democrats over their handling of allegations against Kavanaugh.
And in Missouri, Republican Josh Hawley accused Senate Democrats and his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), of creating a “circus” around the nomination in an ad of his own.
The big unknown, however, is whether the surge in Republican enthusiasm will continue to reverberate through Election Day now the the fight for Kavanaugh's nomination is over.
"If Kavanaugh is confirmed, perhaps Republicans will feel less of a need to turn out," Michael Cornfield, the co-director of the George Washington University Poll, told Hill.TV Friday ahead of the confirmation vote.
“If he's turned down, [Republicans] may surpass Democrats intensity,” he added.
But the picture is different for the House, where strategists warn Kavanaugh’s confirmation will likely fuel Democratic turnout in the midterms.
The nomination fight sparked major protests that erupted in the Senate, with hundreds of demonstrators — many who were women — were arrested days before the final vote.
Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to ram through Kavanaugh’s confirmation, ignoring credible allegations of sexual assault and the nominee’s fiery testimony last week before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Democrats have a much more favorable map as they look to flip the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House, with many of the key battleground races being fought in suburban districts where Republicans have shown signs of struggling to win over women.
Public polls show a widening gender gap, with women tending to favor Democrats over Republicans, and outrage over Kavanaugh’s nomination could drive the wedge even deeper.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, currently rates 31 House races as "toss-up," while 12 are seen as "leaning Democratic," after recently shifting a slew of races in favor of Democrats, including the seats held by Reps. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.), Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), and Mia Love (R-Utah).
The winds favoring Democrats are seen in other ways.
Sixty Democratic House hopefuls topped the $1 million mark in fundraising between July and September, while 30 passed the $2 million mark and eight raked in more than $3 million, Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said Thursday.
And the DCCC itself has also seen a surge in fundraising. The group announced Friday that small-dollar donations increased 467 percent in the last week of September compared to the prior week, the committee said Friday. The total amount raised that week was up 277 percent to $4.38 million.
Democratic House hopefuls have sought in recent weeks to capitalize on Kavanaugh's nomination.
In New Jersey’s 7th District, for example, Democrat Tom Malinowski hit Rep. Leonard Lance (R) in an ad for dismissing the sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh.
And in Georgia’s 6th District, Democrat Lucy McBath criticized her Republican opponent, Rep. Karen Handel (R-Ga.), for her previous praise of Kavanaugh, telling the Associated Press in an interview last month that Handel “has stood by Brett Kavanaugh and refused to speak out on any of these accusations.”
Jon Reinish, a New York-based Democratic strategist, said that Kavanaugh's confirmation had angered Democrats and predicted they would turn out in force, while Republicans would be less motivated.
"The Republican base will see that they got what they wanted," he said. "I don't think that people turn out to say thank you."
Reinish said that the confirmation would fuel much more than a Democratic "blue wave" in November. He predicted instead a "tsunami."
"If the Republicans thought they had a problem before, they have an earthquake now, because you cannot understate the rage and you cannot understate the emotion and you cannot understate the mobilization of Democrats after this," he said.
Are Republicans fired-up to vote because Trump keeps winning?
Or are Democrats fired-up because they know this is their last chance to stop Trump?
Special elections have been a mixed bag. There has been no definitive trend so I'll refrain from making any predictions other than urban liberal stronghold will vote Democrat and middle America will vote Republican.
It will all come down to who votes and why.
Don't take a Red Wave as a given.
Cockiness leads to complacency.
Hillary and the Democrats were cocky in 2016 and look what happened to them.
Where are our October Surprises? Time to start breaking them out. Keep the fire going.
Dems could retake the House but everything they want to do will die in a GOP Senate.
They have to ask themselves if it’s still worth it.
The Dems. lost cause Hillary was kooky. They are now looking kooky again. The media is pleased to have the image of being kooky. The Dems. would win more seats if they at least had some common sense. The jump around and scream like they are being bitten with bedbugs. They cannot change their kooky image now!
All I have seen in AZ are Kyrsten Sinema ads that run over and over. I have seen ONE McSally ad but have to say Sinema seems to be well funded.
The Senate confirms the judges, so if the GOP is only going to hold one of the two chambers, it’s better if it’s that one.
Exactly. Predicting this before the FISA applications are declassified: pointless.
Right.....It’s better to lower expectations at this stage of the game.
But I dont believe 2016 Hillary was “cocky.” She was complacent b/c:
<><> Obama put the entire US intel apparat at her disposal,
<><> the media was doing all the oppo research on Trump,
<><> the Clintons bought off everything in sight...
<><> and had billions to spend on the race.
What could possibly go wrong?
Smirk.
So hard to see much of a blue wave, given that the enthusiasm gap evaporated with Kavanaugh. There may be some Democrat pickups -- but there will be some Republican pickups, too.
And when the republicans win the midterms, they’ll blame the Russians.
The enthusiasm factor for the Ds is a bunch of white “elite” talking to one another and trying to outdo one another in sounding whacky. They have spent a month ignoring their non-white base and instead arguing about which white liberal is more important than anyone else on Earth.
Can they pivot to the black vote or hispanic vote maybe but those two groups are just hangers on at the moment and truth be told the feelings of Alyssa Milan matter more than some poor colored person’s.
“The Republican Party does three things: cut taxes, kill terrorists and confirm judges,” said Matt Gorman......
Funny, about a month before the elections, the Democrat party claims the same thing!
And "The Party of the rabid MOB!"
Yes I believe the Republicans are more than motivated to turn out to vote come November 6th. Hopefully in MASSIVE numbers that will more than compensate for all of the DEMONcRAT illegal voting tactics.
The president knows the political game better than anyone. I think it’s a pretty good bet he has a few nuclear bombs ready to unload on the RATS before Election Day!
Dems control nothing and they fight HARD. Would that Republicans did the same—and they control all! We haven’t seen this sort of convergence in almost 16 years. Bush threw away his trumps and “shared” power with the Dems and they still hated his guts.
We finally have a President that really gives a da*n. Let’s give Trump all the support we can again! Please, everyone, VOTE on November 6!
I missed that story on Hannity Fri night. Thanks~!
To WV Freepers....
Is Manchin saved with his “YES” vote on Kavanaugh?
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