Posted on 10/10/2018 2:49:27 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
Republicans are increasingly optimistic about their chances of expanding their narrow Senate majority after the polarizing confirmation battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
In the weeks since a series of sexual misconduct allegations were raised against Kavanaugh, the GOP has seen candidates in the Republican strongholds of Texas and Tennessee strengthen their positions, putting possible upset bids by Democrats on hold.
Republicans are increasingly bullish on their chances of gaining a seat in North Dakota, where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) has seen Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer pull ahead in polls. They also believe they can defeat Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri. Both Democrats voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation.
“If you look at the polling we’ve seen in the last four or five days, it’s become clear that states like North Dakota and Missouri are moving in the Republicans’ direction,” said Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist.
“Most importantly, the opportunity that existed for Democrats in Tennessee and Texas looks like it's on the way out,” he said.
In Arizona and Nevada, widely seen as the best pickup opportunities for Democrats, recent polls suggest that the GOP is holding its own.
One poll released Wednesday by Phoenix-based pollster OH Predictive Insights showed Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) trailing Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) by 6 points.
While most other recent polls show Sinema with a narrow lead, the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) appears to be tightening. A Fox News poll conducted around the same time as the OH Predictive Insights survey showed Sinema ahead by 2 points – well within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.
In Nevada, an NBC News/Marist poll released earlier this month put Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jacky Rosen (Nev.), by 2 points. Heller has long been seen as the most vulnerable GOP Senate incumbent.
“I think Senate races are tightening and that’s not a real surprise,” said Doug Thornell, a former deputy political director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). “As you get closer to an election, that typically happens. There’s more information that voters take in and on both sides see enthusiasm grow.”
The GOP’s best chances for picking up seats look to be in North Dakota and Missouri, but the party also sees opportunities in Montana and Indiana, two states Trump won easily in 2016, as well as Florida, another state won by Trump where Republicans have a strong candidate in Gov. Rick Scott.
West Virginia is another pick-up chance, though Sen. Joe Manchin, the only Democrat to vote to confirm Kavanaugh, is holding on strong in polls. The Cook Political Report moved that race into the “Lean Democratic” column last month.
Republicans also see a longshot chance of flipping New Jersey, a deep-blue state that Hillary Clinton carried by 14 points in 2016.
A Stockton University poll released earlier this month showed a statistical dead heat in the race between Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and his Republican challenger Bob Hugin, with the incumbent Democrat carrying only a 2-point lead. Menendez was reprimanded by a Senate ethics panel in April after federal prosecutors dropped corruption charges against him.
Republican officials and operatives argued that the bitter fight over Kavanaugh’s confirmation has boosted their chances. They are hoping that the fight will energize their base in November in a year when Democrats have largely held an edge in voter enthusiasm.
At the same time, they say they are not taking anything for granted, and acknowledge the political winds can change quickly.
In North Dakota, they say it’s still possible Heitkamp could make a late comeback.
“Heidi’s never going to be done for,” one North Dakota Republican operative said. “Part of that is this state is cheap. A little bit of money can have a lot of impact. She’s a fighter, and she’s got nothing left to lose.”
In Missouri, a recent poll from Fox news showed Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) tied at 46 percent with McCaskill. A CNN poll conducted days earlier gave McCaskill a 3-point lead.
In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) polling numbers are on the rise. Two recent surveys by Emerson College and CBS News/YouGov showed the conservative firebrand pulling ahead by 5 and 6 points, respectively, over Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas).
In Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) held a 5-point lead in a Fox News poll earlier this month over former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen. Another poll by CBS News/YouGov showed her ahead by 8 points.
In Florida, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) has seen his numbers rebound in recent polls against Scott. Hurricane Michael, which hit the state on Wednesday, has introduced a new uncertainty to that race.
Democrats have expressed optimism that the partisan fight over Kavanaugh will pump up their base.
“I think the pathway to the majority was always going to be difficult for Democrats,” Thornell said. “This is one of the most treacherous Senate maps either party has had in years. But it’s still in play because our incumbents are running strong campaigns, and we have put the GOP on defense in four states.”
We need to focus on the House.
No mention of Indiana?
At least even money we flip that one.
Thank GOD Cruz started hitting back against robert francis.
I REALLY hope Cruz brings his A game to the debate (he brought his B game to the last one). He needs a knockout blow.
Also I with the Texas GOP would start publicizing robert francis’ drunk driving/fleeing the scene.
bob can be as contrite as he wants — he did it and as we all know now (courtesy of how the dems treated Justice Kavanaugh) ANY youthful indiscretion is a millstone around your neck FOREVER.
Time for dems to pay a price for their attempted lynching of Justice Kavanaugh. Let robert francis be the first of many.
“We need to focus on the House.”
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Merciful Maude. Fido969, I agree with you. Even if we keep the Senate, if the Democrats get the House nothing can even get started. Except they’ll go nuts trying to dismantle what Pres Trump and the folks have forced Congress to pass.
It's the US Senate that will be easier to keep. In OH, Renacci isn't getting any help from establishment 'pubs, and he's running a lousy campaign. I fear ceding that seat to Sherrod Brown could hurt them in the HOR races.
The RNC has to get off its butt and be more enthusiastic about vigorously backing Trump supporters. In OH, I suspect Kasick and his cronies would rather lose elections than cede power to Deplorables.
“New” hope?
It was expected all along that we would gain in the Senate. Simply because the Dems had so many more seats at stake.
The media interrupted briefly with a Fake News narrative of Dems’ doing impossibly well.
We will lose one when Mitt takes his Senate seat. He will be another McCain.
In Texas, Beto (D) has a new commercial that kisses up to everybody. Such a despicable liar but people will fall for it.
I believe that we have a real chance of winning +5 seats in the Senate, we have our foot on their neck and we need to finish them off. As for the House, I am predicting -12 to -15 seats. We can cut those losses in half if we take advantage of the Kavanaugh gift that we got from the Democrats.
Remember, the Dems won +6 House seats in 2016. Posting a gain in two elections in a row is very rare, even more rare than a wave election. There will be no Blue Wave this year, but the Democrats can certainly have a net gain in the House.
Cruz isn’t in any trouble, he wins easily.
Make everyone happy. Make Collins inconsequential.
Yes, that is why we need more Trump senators, we can’t trust Romney.
No they won’t. Cruz is going to cruse Beto.
I agree.
I have a hard time seeing how the Rats gain much in the House!
Are there really that many competitive Congressional districts? What do the Rats run on as an issue? They think they are too many people employed? The country needs more unemployment? More illegal immigration? More gun control? Vote for me we will give you more anti-Kavanaugh behavior? Or is it just vote for me because “Trump is a poopyhead!”?
I know there are some uninspiring GOP congressional candidates out there, but do the Rats have better ones?
I have a hard time thinking how they will gain any seats let alone take the House!
He may actually surprise us and be no worse than Orrin "Chicken" Hatch.
There are 70 competitive House districts (less than 3 points separating). There are a total of 39 seats out of 435 where Republicans don’t have a candidate. Dems have no candidate in only 6 districts out of 435. Over 40 incumbent Republicans resigned or declined to run. House will be tough.
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