I've heard the theory, and I don't dismiss that it might have had an influence on Davis, but i'm not convinced this is the sole reason he did what he did.
The theory has some plausibility, but I haven't seen enough supporting evidence to accept it outright.
Again I invite you to study my post #410, which addresses that exact question.
Near as I can tell, the case for Jefferson Davis' motives at Fort Sumter is iron-clad.
Here's the thing: in all these threads you've argued, in effect, that Davis was pushed ignorantly into an act of stupidity by Lincoln's so-called "war fleet".
My opinion, on the contrary, is that Davis was in fact quite brilliant, that he was "pushed into" nothing but rather acted 100% rationally based on what he knew at the time, namely, a "battle" at Fort Sumter (and/or Fort Pickens) would flip Virginia from Union to Confederate.
And along with Virginia, at least three more Upper South states, possibly others.
So, how could Davis not take advantage of that opportunity?
I also think Lincoln realized what was the likely outcome and could not have wished to see Virginia secede.
But he may well have thought war was coming -- somewhere, somehow, some-when -- no matter what he did, and therefore he really had no choice except to attempt to hold Fort Sumter as long as possible.
The theory has some plausibility, but I haven't seen enough supporting evidence to accept it outright.
The evidence is in Davis's own words in his April 3rd letter to Braxton Bragg:
“It is scarcely to be doubted that for political reasons the U.S. govt. will avoid making an attack so long as the hope of retaining the border states remains. There would be to us an advantage in so placing them that an attack by them would be a necessity, but when we are ready to relieve our territory and jurisdiction of the presence of a foreign garrison that advantage is overbalanced by other considerations. The case of Pensacola then is reduced [to] the more palpable elements of a military problem and your measures may without disturbing views be directed to the capture of Fort Pickens and the defence of the harbor. You will soon have I hope a force sufficient to occupy all the points necessary for that end. As many additional troops as may be required can be promptly furnished.” [Jefferson Davis to Braxton Bragg, 3 Apr 1861] Source
Davis saw the advantage in trying to create a situation where the Union would have to fire the first shot, but he thought that "other consdirations" outweighed the advantage of not having fired the first shot.
Davis doesn't go into what those "other considerations" that outweighed the advantage of not starting a war by firing the first shot were. Did the benefit of shooting first lie in solidifying support for the new government in the seceded states, or in rushing other slave states into secession? In any case, Davis wanted war for reasons of his own, and he was willing to start a one himself without any Yankee trickery.
We do know that Davis was getting letters and telegrams telling him that Virginia was ready to fall into the Confederate camp if only he would take bold action. What action could be more bold than starting a war?
Put Davis's letter to Bragg together with the letters and telegrams that Davis was receiving, and he really doesn't look like a victim of Lincoln's machinations. He was playing 3-D chess, maybe more so than Lincoln, but either he wasn't that good at it or his new country was at such a disadvantage that it didn't matter in the end.
More here.