Posted on 10/17/2018 8:59:43 AM PDT by Kaslin
“Cook, always behind the real curve by about two months.”
On the Real Clear Politics Senate tracking poll all of the seats with Democrats leading have not been polled for about 2 weeks. I think that they are hiding the bad news.
I hear we lose 10 or so total. As long as we hold majority, I’m happy. What a mess it would be if Dems get the house.
If it’s that close I can just hear Pelosi demanding that the GOP must share power in the House. Then there’ll be the spectacle of some House RINOs switching party to give it to her.
tagging for later
Rasmussen and LA Time tracking didn’t “get it wrong” in 2016
I never understood this blind worship for Cooke who is such a transparent DNC stooge among supposed “Conservatives”
“...the distinct possibility of undecideds stampeding toward the Democrats at the last minute.”
No justification given for that assertion...just an unsubstantiated statement. Isn’t the opposite “distinct possibility” just as likely? Why would undecideds break for D?
Exactly! I won't be a bit surprised if we pick up 6-8 seats in the Senate. It's harder for an armchair campaign manager like myself to handicap House races but I'll be very surprised if the Republicans lose the House.
In my case, I made bets with Cook. I don’t do that anymore, he liked very nice restaurants and he always won.
I predict GOP gains in both the House and Senate. This will be followed by an immediate expansion of the Mueller probe against all GOP members of Congress to find proof that Russia interfered with the midterms. <\sarc>
I couldn’t agree more.
The last two elections, 2014 and 2016, showed GOP candidates outperforming polling leading up to Election Day. Hoping that trend continues.
I have as “safe” Cramer (ND), Hawley (MO), McSally (AZ), Cruz (TX), Blackburn (TN; I have as probable Scott (FL), Braun (IN); I have as slight lean Heller (NV) and Renacci (OH); and I have as possible but tossup Hugin (NJ) and Morrissey (WV); I have as “long shot” James (MI); Housely (MN) and Vukmir (WI); and I have as a lost cause PA.
for the Democrats it is, the GOP has the momentum.
‘In 2016, Charlie was right on the money for the House’
I don’t think you understand the drill here; you’re not supposed to mess with the zeitgeist of an echo chamber...
How did he do on the Senate?
Not going to happen, we would still have a 13 seat advantage.
The reality is the money still has us losing the House. But, unlike a few months ago, it’s possible we can keep it. As long as Trump is out there scaring with their talk of impeachment, it could be done.
Right now, I am betting we lose 22 seats and barely keep the House. Senate, we gain 3 seats.
No, we deal with facts, not conjecture. What was his record on the Senate, which was projected to go Democrat by most pollsters?
If we are winning Senate seats, we aren’t going to lose the House and probably no more then 10 seats.
What is your latest bet on the House? How many seats do the Dems pick up?
With this Senate map the GOP only gaining 2-3 seats would be a GOP disaster. Par should be gaining 6-8 seats, a good years gaining even more. With so much of the Democratic House vote concentrated in 70%+ urban Rat holes, and the overall national generic House ballot close to tied, par should mean more 50-55% GOP seats than 70%+ Rat seats, roughly as we have now. Which would still be an improvement with so many RINOs retiring to be replaced by new, more conservative, members. A good GOP house year would be gaining another 20+ seats.
The Rat minority is cooked in by their own identity politics: if they don’t have the 70-80% urban Rat districts they can’t give the radicals, blacks and latinos their demanded seats. They’d have to settle for old style, traditional, moderate, WHITE democrats members if they wanted to ungerrymander the blue states to obtain a House majority. And their internal identity politics won’t allow for that. The lefty media is no longer powerful enough to overcome that. Their vote fraud resources are less effective at the House level as it is they are mostly concentrated in districts they’d win without fraud.
GOP strength at the state and local levels, IF they’ll use it, should minimize vote fraud crossing House district or State boundaries. Whether the traditional GOP establishment can gets its act together enough to actually use those advantages remains to be seen. That the Turtle and his co-RINOs have pushed so many Trump nominations through the Senate with the narrowest of majorities offers some evidence that the national GOP establishment is learning to fight from Trump, rather than continuing to fight against Trump. And, although the Rats having been pouring private lefty megabucks into many races the RNC has a LOT more money to spend than the DNC and may well spend it more timely and effectively than the crazy lefties.
You can find the 2016 Senate Results here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016
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