Yes that is “protocol” ..nothing above 30Kcfs until above 710 feet...
but the lake wasn’t forecast to be that high for a couple more days but they almost did it anyway.if fact that was the plan until midday today to open 8 gates
the question is what were they worried about that made them almost release 50,000 cfs today with the lake ‘only” at 702 feet? And why did they change it?
If they wait till the lake is 710 feet and open 8 gates..(i.e. 50K).and inflow into the lake is above 50,000 cfs. then they lake would still rise
if another heavy rain storm hits during that time and inflow is much higher (i.e. over 100cfs ) then it would rise high enough to overflow the spillway at 714 feet
then there would be 8 gates open plus whatever is flowing over the spillway out of control
I should add this is going to be long battle. in all of Texas as the rivers and lakes in Texas are full and a wet pattern in place
check out the GEM from the Dallas NWS discussion about next week after the break Monday and Tuesday
. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY, WHAT IS STILL IN QUESTION ARE THE AMOUNTS. THAT’S
BECAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND GETS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER TROUGH INTO MEXICO. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT
WOULD PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND RESULT IN A
SWATH OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS TEXAS. WE’VE SEEN BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FLIRT WITH THIS SCENARIO ON
OCCASIONAL RUNS AND WE KNOW FROM CLIMATOLOGY THAT THIS IS A
PATTERN SETUP THAT HAS PRODUCED MANY INSTANCES OF 10+ INCHES OF
RAIN. AGAIN, WE WILL NOT START ADVERTISING OR ANTICIPATING THIS
UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
(THAT HASN’T ORGANIZED YET), BUT WE’RE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY AS
IT’D BE A WORSE CASE SCENARIO AFTER ALL OF THE RAIN WE’VE ALREADY
SEEN.